Need Responses from those with Hurricane Knowledge.....

[WaryEye]

I not extremely hurricane savvy so I have a question for all of you that have more expertise and have studied so many of them over time.....

I have this big fear with Ivan that he will be projected to hit at a certain point 24-48 hours out and then make an abrupt turn elsewhere and hit someone that wasn't properly prepared for him.... am I a nut?? Can this happen or are the models generally right on? I know they were off with Charley.... what if Ivan beelines for Texas or Eastern Florida at the last minute?

I just find myself having a hard time believing the models even though a U.S. landfall is getting closer. It appeared it would hit Jamaica with a direct hit but then Ivan did what he wanted and not what science said he would... ( thank God by the way ). I am a bit freaked out for everyone along the coastline everywhere. Ivan just gives me the creeps.

Thanks in advance for any and all replies....

[dennis1x1]

anyone would have plenty of time to prepare should models continue to shift....thanks to his slow-to-moderate projected speed.

[Agua]

No, you're not a nut. It has happened before with people becoming complacent thinking "there's so many other places it can land".


Jamaica was a special thing wasn't it? Just because there's a valid raitonal explanation doesn't mean it wasn't divine.

[MWatkins]

The odds of Ivan hitting an area not under a hurricane warning are next to nill. Enough of the coastline will be warned with a hurricane as large as this one...so that the above scenario cannot happen.

Now...if residents in a warning area decide that the hurriane is not oming where they live and choose not to prepare...well...that's a different issue.

At present we are still 4 days from a landfall. On the TPC track warnings would not come until monday or tuesday...leaving residents with plenty of time to prepare.

MW

[birdwomn]

I am not an expert, but the forecast for Charley was not off, technically.
It was very similar to what we are seeing here. A shift of the "official track" within the margin of error or "cone of terror" as some have called it. A wobble at or near landfall is not uncommon, nor is strengthening or weakening.

Basically, if you are within the cone, you should be preparing. Tropical forecasting, while scientific, is not a perfect science and there is still alot that the NHC and others do not understand completely.

A word about models: models are ONE tool that forecasters use. Not the whole deal.

Hope this helps

[WaryEye]

Thanks guys...

Thats a comfort at least. Ivan has caused so much unrest among so many. I was just afraid that he might suddenly turn North or East and start hauling. I think GOM'ers are probably well prepared as they are now in the cone.... its those that get taken out of the cone that I was concerned with.

[dennis1x1]

you are correct bird...the charley forecast was not off.......the nhc made mention several times that because of the angle of approach the slightest deviation would mean alot of difference as to exact landfall, and the area was in the high probability and definitely in a hurricane warning...

[mathias1979]

the general rule is that if you are in the projected forecast cone from the NHC, you need to be prepared. this is what went wrong with charley. everyone focused on the center of the cone, but people to the south of tampa should've been just as prepared, because the NHC knew there was a possibility for a wobble.