Tampa

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 1=pmslhere you all look at this if you all live in central to north florida stay alert stay very veyr alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[marc21688]

that link isn't working for me

[Anonymous]

das...you have to lighten up.

[yankeelmbb]

That link isn't working for me either...says invalid parameter

[chakalakasp]

Well then why don't you explain the models to all of us then. And I guess you do not think much of the amateur meteorologists here huh? I am sure they are skilled in the analyzing of theses systems. Amateur just means they are not getting paid. Although they may not be able to decipher all of the model data as well as yourself.

Models are used not for final forecast determination but as a tool in conjunction with observation analysis to forecast systems. Every model has a bias, and experienced forecasters know each model and it's typical bias. NOGAPS for example, often moves hurricanes slower than is reflected in reality. Every model has its own biases in given different situations. They're just mathamatical models; they can be, and often are wrong with the details of long term forecasting (though will generally be more right than wrong on the synoptic scale.)

Do I trust the amateur mets here more than professional, degree carrying mets? No. Do I trust them more than the dream team of mets at the NHS? No. Some here have very interesting and well-backed opinions (usually these posters have the "professional met" tag by their name.) Some here have no clue what they're talking about and see every sat wobble and model shift as evidence that the NHS is smoking crack. Nothing against those posters -- they are entitled to their opinions too. But if I were faced with the choice about whether or not to protect my house in the face of a possible hurricane, I'd get my forecasting info from people with PhDs and jobs that hold them accountable, not anonymous people on an internet messaging board.

[roostercogburn]

Yes but why not explain how they work, not what they do and their bias. Why does the NOGAPS do what it does? Come on.

[birdwomn]

In my opinion...
Even the BEST forecast for Florida is not going to be perfect this far out, unless whoever is giving it is just lucky.

Or even right up close: case in point, Jamacia was expected to take a direct hit and did not. Was this viewed as an error in forecasting by anyone? of course not. They were more fortunate than they might have been. Was this still within the forecast? yes it was and will be viewed as on target.

Just because the models are trending more toward the panhandle doesn't mean we in the Tampa Bay area are "home free" by any stretch. It means we can breath a little easier. It means we should NOT plan to evacuate to the Panhandle area, but look in another direction for our evacuation plans, if they are needed. My motehrin in law chose a Las Vegas vacation, which I think is a great plan!

To try to explain each and every model and it's tendencies and "quirks" along with the very real possibility of bad data being used in the models is a bit much to be expected on this message board. If you want that kind of detail, I recommend you look into the better Univerisities in the world for tropical meterology.

I am just another normal person interested in weather, and tropical weather in particular, but I would not expect to be given this info on an Internet message board.

[chakalakasp]

Yes but why not explain how they work, not what they do and their bias. Why does the NOGAPS do what it does? Come on.

I'm not a computer programmer, nor am I a mathematician. Why does NOGAPS have a slow bias on tropical systems? Because the underlying formulas and model programming cause it to be so. It takes a SGI supercomputer with 512 processors and a terrabyte of RAM many hours to make these model forecasts, so explaining the exact mathamatical processes which cause the model to typically make hurricanes run too slow would likely take the rest of my life to type and the rest of your life to read. Of course, neither of us have enough years in our life to understand what we were looking at, which is why we need supercomputers to do the work for us, as doing it by pen and paper would take us several million years.

[chakalakasp]

In my opinion...
To try to explain each and every model and it's tendencies and "quirks" along with the very real possibility of bad data being used in the models is a bit much to be expected on this message board. If you want that kind of detail, I recommend you look into the better Univerisities in the world for tropical meterology.

I am just another normal person interested in weather, and tropical weather in particular, but I would not expect to be given this info on an Internet message board.

Thanks for your post -- I definately agree with you. The people who understand all the quirks are the people who are better equipped to understand what they mean, and I definately wouldn't expect more than a few people posting here to be so equipped. As you say, the general way to get this knowledge is through a University program in meteorology. There's nothing wrong with someone who has an "amateur" interest in meteorology trying to figure out models, but I wouldn't call off any preparation plans because the models don't show a direct hit 80 hours out. The NHS still has the whole west coast of Florida in the uncertainty cone, and that should be the primary piece of data that someone in that cone should use when determining whether or not to board up.

[Possum Trot]

Some of the amatuer meteorologists have impressive skills, however, this far out, no one really KNOWS where IVAN is going.

[roostercogburn]

So do you guys agree or disagree. Tampa will feel little or no effects from Ivan. But I will not say that we will not get some rain. But nothing like the catastrophe that is coming further north and west of us.

[Agua]

Hey be happy. I blew $600 on plywood middle of last week. If that keeps the damned storm away, it was well worth it.

ummm... TWC is in Tampa right now......

Which is indicative of what?

why would they be in a place not involved????

Because they tried to anticipate where it would land based on incorrect information?

Wednesday was at least a week out, and it was uncertain (as it was at the time I purchased the plywood, as well as presently) where it would make landfall. Living here, I know it will eventually get used. If not for this storm, then for another one.

[Rainband]

My local met just said. The coastal counties of west central florida will be under hurricane force winds. Even on the latest forecast track

[roostercogburn]

Which met rainband?

[Windsong]

Local met ch 6 in Orlando just said the same. I don't know her name.

[Rainband]

Which met rainband?

Randy Roush from channel 10

[roostercogburn]

Dennis Phillips is my favorite

[ExtinctionEvent]

Ivan is just too damn unpredictable, to have a cavalier attitude about it. It seems like every 6 hours he shifts another direction. So please all floridians be very cautious. I think this ordeal is far from conclusion.

[Deana Cuevas]

I'm a little confused, well very confused. Bay news9 says it looks like better for Tampa Bay???? Correct me if I'm wrong please but is't there a low (I think that's what it was?) digging down to the west of Florida and if Ivan comes in slow that low will push him right into the central Florida, ie. The Tampa BAY Area?

[FritzPaul]

Hey Das is your nickname hurricane_lover?