Cyclonic Loop?

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:13 pm

With the steering flow as light as it is right now...it kind of looks like Ivan is spinning himself about in a cyclonic loop while drifting westward. Hard to tell for sure if he is indeed half way through it...but it sure looks that way.

MW

HoumaLa · #2 Postby **HoumaLa** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:16 pm

could this be the starting of the stall they were talking about

#3 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:18 pm

Erratic movement of a tropical cyclone is common when the steering flow is weak. Take Frances for example when it was over the eastern Bahamas.

Weatherboy1 · #4 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:26 pm

This storm seems a lot like Mitch in 1998. Located in relatively the same place ... almost as strong ... not really moving anywhere ... occasional S and SW jogs. Obvious differences exist as well, but Ivan looks like he's trying to follow in big brother Mitch's footsteps.

Regarding future path, I should note that I don't expect this thing to go into Central America like Mitch. I see no reason to argue with the W FL Panhandle landfall idea at this time.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:31 pm

No matter what, the previous forecast model runs and official forecast tracks during the week mean something.

corpusbreeze · #6 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:34 pm

looks like west now. I was thinking the same thing about a cyclonic loop.

Possum Trot · #7 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:38 pm

What is a "Cyclonic Loop" please?

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:48 pm

The key will be when it crosses cuba...if it does :roll:

Either way Ivan is a force to be reckoned with :eek:

I am still sticking to my cedar Key landfall. Call it a gut

bobbisboy · #9 Postby **bobbisboy** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

Mike,

Although the first trough is washing it out it seems about to receive another punch from the west even as the ridging appears to be building more to IVAN'S west and perhaps stretching thinner to his north. In light of your earlier post I wondered if you had any thought on this. Thanks in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#10 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

Possum Trot wrote:What is a "Cyclonic Loop" please?

Slow moving and very strong hurricanes can move in a counter-clockwise loop along their track...much like Ivan is doing right now.

That loop-de-loop is called a cylonic loop.

MW

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:59 pm

I can't wait for the next image in the IR loop, either he's breaking it, or making it.

Cape Verde · #12 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:01 pm

Looking at the water vapor loop, it's not clear to me that Ivan has to choose the right fork in the road. What's keeping it from heading toward the Yucatan and a Mexican landfall south of Brownsville?

Windsong · #13 Postby **Windsong** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:01 pm

Uh...Bobbisboy...in your link there is this huge swirly looking thing with no convection that seems to be gaining on us. WHAT is that?

#14 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:09 pm

Windsong wrote:Uh...Bobbisboy...in your link there is this huge swirly looking thing with no convection that seems to be gaining on us. WHAT is that?

I think that's the "Anti Cyclonic flow" discussed in the 2pm Tropical outlook.
I'm really sorry, I already posted this over on the thread of "Thoughts on Ivan", http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44096
but I really would like some real meteorological insight into this.

tronbunny wrote:The BIG question in my mind is..
What is that Anti-Cyclonic "bubble" over central FL gonna do?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
205 PM EDT SAT 11 SEP 2004...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 31N82W 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N82W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 79W-86W.
<snip>
CARIBBEAN...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE IVAN WHICH IS JUST W OF JAMAICA. ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS AFFECT W HAITI...SE
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPERLEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER IVAN WITH AN E/W RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N88W 18N79W 15N60W.

Possum Trot · #15 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:12 pm

Thank You MWatkins.

schmita · #16 Postby **schmita** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:26 pm

Yea, I agree. What is that? Mets?
Let me be more clear about my question. What is that spinning thing in the atlantic heading towards the mid atlantic states?

#17 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:33 pm

schmita wrote:Yea, I agree. What is that? Mets?
Let me be more clear about my question. What is that spinning thing in the atlantic heading towards the mid atlantic states?

It's a mid/upper low that actually may be messing with the steering high some...it is not projected to move much further west and is expected to weaken and or lift out of the area over the next couple of days.

It is not a tropial feature...just one of those pesky mid/upper lows that are always spinning around in the Atlantic...although it may be a little better defined than most we see.

MW

schmita · #18 Postby **schmita** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:44 pm

Thanks MW. I think? The "better defined" part is what got me. It does seem better defined than some of these.
Windy and rainy here. Outflow maybe.
irina

#19 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:45 pm

Mike, what effect could it have on Ivan?
and why/why not?

Thanks for your help.

Cyclonic Loop?

Cyclonic Loop?

Mitch a good comparison

Approaching Trough...

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