Ivan Advisories

Praxus · #4881 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:43 pm

"We may be looking at the worst natrual diaster in history here"

Get real man. There have been earthquakes and floods that have killed
hundreds of thousands of people.

southerngale · #4882 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:44 pm

His original post said "It looks like Cuba may be in the clear IMO"

Geez. He's entitled to his opinion and he didn't say it was going to New Orleans. Everyone needs to watch their comments and show some respect to others.

Derek Ortt · #4883 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:44 pm

Ivan was the #1 story tonight on CBS with 9/11 being relegated to #2

Sean in New Orleans · #4884 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:44 pm

Thanks for posting these...they are really cool.

flightpath · #4885 Postby **flightpath** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:44 pm

weatherwatch report on now!

Matthew5 · #4886 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:44 pm

God help Cuba if he doe's not move through the channel :eek:

#4887 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:45 pm

Joe had his forecast into the central Gulf based on pattern recognition. Because of his mess up w/ Frances and the model consensus on a western FL coast landfall, he decided to change his forecast, which he rarely does. As it turns out, he is more than likely going to switch back to the further west landfall. I think he'll feel a bit more confident in doing this if Ivan remains on the current W-WNW heading and if the models continue this more westerly option. He also thinks it would be a strong cat 4 or 5 that would resemble Camille if this western option pans out.

das8929 · #4888 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:45 pm

Theyre getting the NE quadrant if it doesnt hit them directly.

#4889 Postby **drezee** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:45 pm

A. 11/1917Z
B. 18 DEG 06 MIN N
79 DEG 11 MIN W

A. 11/2044Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W

A. 11/2218Z
B. 18 DEG 07 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W

Over last 3 recon plots....

Movement is approx. 275 degs
at approx 10kts

Cape Verde · #4890 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:46 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:luckily with every hour of west (now a little south of west), a direct hit is looking unlikely.

<P>If the forecast plot on the visible geos is correct, it looks like they're now forecasting the eye to directly pass over Grand Cayman.

MBryant · #4891 Postby **MBryant** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:46 pm

I think it's actually 911MB and Ivan is just doing a tribute.

frankthetank · #4892 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:47 pm

yeah...there great to look at because of the detail level, especially the 250m shot....shes on her way!

check out the blowup of clouds over Hispanola...must be the mtns doing it....would love to be under those storms!

dennis1x1 · #4893 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:47 pm

what quadrant they get really is irrelevant compared to whether they get the eyewall or not in the grand scheme of things.

much like jamaica who..yes....got the strong quadrant..but not the eyewall...difference between damage and destruction.

and yes..the official forecast has a direct hit on grand cayman....but in reality...the sat movement west makes that more unlikely as Ivan is still moving west of the forecast track....a 310 turn is now needed for a direct hit.

gkrangers · #4894 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:48 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:what quadrant they get really is irrelevant compared to whether they get the eyewall or not in the grand scheme of things.

much like jamaica who..yes....got the strong quadrant..but not the eyewall...difference between damage and destruction.

Northeast eyewall wouldn't be very much fun.

ohiostorm · #4895 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:48 pm

I just reloaded the IR floater and the last 2 frames show Ivan possibly starting his turn more NW. Looks like he was having a little W wobble. Let's see if this is an actual turn or a wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

southerngale · #4896 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:48 pm

das8929 wrote:Lol. Omg now theyre saying the West Coast. Whats next Brownsville?? This is seriously making me mad. THIS IS A PANHANDLE STORM.

Don't harrass members for making legitimate posts.

Sorry corpusbreeze.

#4897 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:49 pm

das8929 wrote:Its not going west, as you can clearly see it is gaining latitude. WNW it looks to me. It wobbles north and west, average it out its still WNW. Looks to hit the western edge of Cuba.

You Florida guys should be excited about what has been happening with Ivan but instead you continue to argue otherwise, why? No one is saying Florida is out of the woods at all. But for every mile that Ivan moves west the better it looks for at least southern Fl. I know things can and probably will change but that's how it stands now.

NC George · #4898 Postby **NC George** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:50 pm

They had an excellent demonstration of why you shouldn't be out and about in a hurricane, the car the people taking the video from was struck by a piece of flying debris and it broke the windshield.

dennis1x1 · #4899 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:50 pm

dont see it....last 2 frames move west.

Rainband · #4900 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:50 pm

Looks like it may find that weakness after all :eek:

Ivan Advisories

Ivan starting more Northerly turn

Who is online