Ivan Advisories

[PanAmMIA]

This wx site is good as Ivan approaches, but I'm afraid they need a much heavier duty anemometer!

http://www.caymanweather.metsite.com/WxFlash/redbay.htm

Perhaps true. They have a beautiful graphical interface though
Mike

[Brent]

I'm getting really nervous now.i live in Ft.Walton Beach. What can we expect from Ivan?

Depends.

If the GFDL verifies, a disaster. Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane direct hit.

[feederband]

yes

[Anonymous]

If it keeps slowwing down, do you think the ridge could erode more and make landfall further east?

[FritzPaul]

Maybe the 905MB from last night was an omen.

[Opal storm]

At this point it's very unlikely,it's looks like this is going to be a FL panhandle/Gulf coast storm all the way.

[yoda]

Maybe the 909MB from last night was an omen.

LOL, it was 905....

[LAwxrgal]

What 905 from last night?

[floodprone]

Yeah JODY>>>

[huricanwatcher]

just sent thanks to all emailing.. and i heard my name ...

[NFLnut]

I'm always amused at the people who pull out maps and show the track of some previous storm from say, 1938, and say 'well because the storm of 1938 took this track, Ivan will too.'

The conditions for Ivan are not the same as with Charley or any previous storm. Each storm is different. Although we can learn from each storm, its behavior, and its track, the conditions with each storm are different. Therefore, Ivan will go where it will regardless of what Charley did.

[Anonymous]

With Ivan maintaining a track similar to Charleys... and the setup close to the same, Ivan could pull a charley anywhere along the west peninsula and the further up the peninsula, the more likely as Ivan turns North and Northeast.

[emerald]

Sorry for the caps but a bit worried about my brother in the caymans - is it going to hit big time or no? - or any idea how long?

[EarthStormFire]

The NHC is predicting Major sheer in the gulf for Ivan. My question is where is this sheer going to come from.

[tronbunny]

I think the lat/lon data is extrapolated from the last vortex message and satellite photos.
vortex @ 2218Z
The wobble west may not be even that much.
See my thoughts in this sticky:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43938

[Brent]

Direct hit(or close to it) for Grand Cayman in the morning

[yoda]

What 905 from last night?

Well, to sum it up, I posted an erroneous vortex last night, and it said 905 MB.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It doesn't look pretty for the big island of Grand Cayman as they could face the northern eyewall or perhaps a direct hit from the eye itself. The rest of the Caymans should see hurricane force winds or strong tropical storm force winds such as Little Cayman for instance.

Jim

[drezee]

218
URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.

[emerald]

ok brent - thanks1