possible NHC technique? aka CYA?

[Houstonia]

I've been thinking about the NHC and their insistance on keeping their model on the East side of the other models.

If you were responsible for predicting a storm that is going to devastate wherever it's going to land - and you can't predict exactly where that is right now, what would YOU do?

1) go ahead and make like the storm is going to hit the LARGEST population area - so they can be prepared in case the storm goes that way (Florida) and hope that the lesser populated areas (Mississippi and Alabama) can get out in time, but possibly not concerning themselves as much with those states (lower economy, less political clout, etc.)

2) or would you simply say, well, yeah.. it might hit Alabama - then be SOL when no one in Florida prepares for a storm that at the last minute decides to track back to the northeast and slams into a highly populated area?

I love Mississippi and Alabama and Louisiana - but I know that when it comes to the economy, and politics and hence, advance warning... they may lose out over Florida.

I'm betting that someone at the NHC is saying, "There's NO WAY I'm going to be bullied into extending that warning PAST THE LOUSIANA BORDER INTO TEXAS, man!" Because if Texas enters the game with the Houston/Galveston area - brother, it's a whole other ballgame.

For that reason, I think that the NHC has a preconceived spectrum - FLorida on one side, Texas on the other. They don't worry so much about the states in between.

If for no other reason than the influence of the Bush brothers.

[HollynLA]

[bahamaswx]

That's why they overwarn the public. They have to.

[Houstonia]

:roll:

Is that a roll your eyes in disgust or a roll your eyes in concern?

I hope it wasn't disgust, 'cause I wasn't trying to be disgusting. I wasn't even trying to start an arguement. Just a thought, is all.

[Guest]

I think your opinion is garbage. These are people's LIVES. **dramatic eyeroll**
...Jennifer...

[gkrangers]

New Orleans is the most at risk city on the gulf coast. Why would they ignore it and toss it aside?

[Clint_TX]

Girl...you are dead on...good post

[Matthew5]

It is the nhc job to warn people

[HollynLA]

Not disgust, more like your wild imagination. I don't think there is some sort of conspiracy with the NHC's prediction. I do think however, that they are very cautious when moving the forecast to the west as they want to be sure of a trend before they cause others to become worried and the opposite half to let their guard down. Usually when we see a path shift, most of us already knew it would happen as it had been obious for over 12 hours. Enough of the conspiracy stuff already. NHC is many highly trained professionals doing the best they can to predict the unpredictable.