Major concern with extreme cyclone forecasting & west Ca

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a great concern about the NHC's ability to come up with a forecast track for such an extreme cyclone in the Western Caribbean. Don't get me wrong, I am not one to bash the NHC, and that is not what this post is about. Their track forecasts as of late have been pretty much right on the money. If I recall the last major hurricane of this magnitude in this area was Mitch in 1998. Mitch was forecasted by the NHC and the models to move NW and into the GOM. Many decisions were based on that forecast and eventually ended up costing many lives. The Windjammer Cruise ship Fantome was lost as a result of Mitch along with its crew of 30 people. The captain of the Fantome, Guyan March took the ship and ran south along the coast of South America to avoid Mitch's forecasted track. Unfortunately he ended up sailing right into the eye of the storm when Mitch went SW and the ship was never heard from again. The point I'm getting at is that it is so rare to see a storm of this magnitude in the western caribbean that maybe there isn't enough evidence or experience with them to accurately predict a future track. Ivan's "wandering" around between Jamaica and the Caymans already has me worried that this storm may fool all of the forecasters and go on a path that no one or no model has even shown yet. I know models and computers have become much more advanced since 1998 but major hurricanes such as this are still one of nature's forces on earth that cannot be understood. Once again this is not an NHC bash so please don't take it as that. I have the utmost respect for the people at the NHC, especially after dealing with Frances last week head on. I still don't have my power yet. I was just making an observation on what the last "Major" hurricane in this part of the world did versus where it was supposed to go. Any comments are welcome.

SouthFLTropics

[bahamaswx]

I knew 2 of the crew members of the Fantome.

As for Ivan; NHC does the best they can. Can't ask for more than that.

[tronbunny]

Maybe the A98E knew something we didn't.

I all honesty, I think that is why they keep it.
We need to be reminded that there is still much to learn about the Physics of nature.

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree that the NHC does the best they can. I don't want anyone to think that I was saying they don't do their best. It would be nice though if some more money could be spent on additional recon missions when a storm like this comes along. It is very rare that this happens and the more we can learn about them when it does the better off we will be in the future. I'm all for getting as much data as possible and then some when a Cat 5 is within recon range. I believe it would be money well spent on the additional missions. I would hate to think that political issues are tying up money that could be spent for additional research. Cat 5 storms seem to be a horse of a different color versus all other storms and what is going on inside of them needs to be known.

[Tri-State_1925]

I don't think that storm strength has anything to do with it. From what I've seen over the years, the experts can be way off with storms in the Caribbean and GOM. It can definitely be a funky area to forecast.

All I want to see from the NHC is UNDERSTANDABLE warning. I thought they didn't do a good job of forecasting or warning people of Charley's extreme strength, but they did a good job with Frances.

[RichG]

I have been thinking the same thing. Mitch did not do what they thought it would. Maybe there is something with such powerfull storms. NHC does a great job but this is a differnt animal all together.

[SouthFLTropics]

Maybe you are correct Tri-state...maybe it does have something to do with the area of the Western Caribbean and GOM. Something needs to be done though to try and get as much research and data as possible when a storm like this occurs.

[Galvestongirl]

I always thought, and correct me if I am wrong, that a hurricane of this magnitude made its own environment, and essentually went the direction it wanted too.