Ivan Advisories

#5301 Postby **HollynLA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:54 pm

I did notice that according to the NHC projection, it would have to start going NW as of "now" in order to stay on it. I don't feel that is happening. We may see a slight change in their forecasts by morning if it does not start the NW trend.

lilbump3000 · #5302 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:55 pm

calidoug the NHC been having this system starting a NW movement on every update on there map for the past few days now. If you seen the map at 5 you see they had a NW motion starting from that point, if you look back at the 11 a.m. you see they had a NW motion starting from that point and so on.

dennis1x1 · #5303 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:55 pm

very nice link..this will cover things during the eclipse!!

Clint_TX · #5304 Postby **Clint_TX** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:56 pm

Guess mine shouln't have been deleted after all :roll:

calidoug · #5305 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:56 pm

gkrangers, you are partially correct:

There appeared to be a N wobble. But the baseline or average motion no longer appears to be 270, or even the 285 cited in the last NHC advisory.

Rather, it appears to be wobbling about a 300 heading.

Galvestongirl · #5306 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:56 pm

it was way too small for me to see

#5307 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:56 pm

Dear, dear Deana..
That is why we are here.
We want to "bet on it" and learn more about nature's physics.
The best plan is to be prepared.
No one is here to tease you or to see how quickly you react to their slightest suggestion.
The fact is that we DO NOT know with certainty what the storm will do.
We all know that it would be irresponsible of us to tell you that "there's no way you're gonna get it"
Because we DO NOT KNOW!
Be prepared and follow the directions of your local authorities.
It''l be alright, we're all in it together.
:-)

corpusbreeze · #5308 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:56 pm

the cmc has been the best modelon Ivan.

Deana Cuevas · #5309 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

Thanks for answering me. I have been on pins and needles with all this. I think I have been glued to this site.

Sean in New Orleans · #5310 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

Thanks...it will cover the eclipse---the eyewall is the small circle inside of the first shield for those posting that can't figure it out....now, we can watch more closely...thanks, again.

otowntiger · #5311 Postby **otowntiger** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
calidoug wrote:Motion from 2115Z through 0315Z appears to be about 300.

Bad news for Grand Cayman.

Eye appears to be contracting in the last couple frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also might be entraining a little bit of drier air from the NW... convection not as intense on that side....

They call it a wobble which is what it's been doing all day.
Though it really does need to start turning NW now otherwise some of you guys in Florida are going to have a nervous breakdown.

Don't start with that. All we've heard all day from everyone east of Florida is west, west, west!!!! It seems the folks from LA, Miss, AL and TX are the ones who will suffer from a nervous break down. We here in FL have had our share of storms, so if it keeps going west, we are OK with that.

Agua · #5312 Postby **Agua** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

ACK!! Screw that model.

lilbump3000 · #5313 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

Seems it hasnt changed from its 12Z run all the way to the 00Z run.

gkrangers · #5314 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:57 pm

calidoug wrote:gkrangers, you are partially correct:

There appeared to be a N wobble. But the baseline or average motion no longer appears to be 270, or even the 285 cited in the last NHC advisory.

Rather, it appears to be wobbling about a 300 heading.

I haven't checked it since the straight north jog..

I just think its a little funny how if its going NW, and 1 frame west means its a turn.

But if its going W, and one frame goes NW, its just a jog. Seems thats the way its been all over the internet with this storm.

Galvestongirl · #5315 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:58 pm

thank you, this is a very nice link. 8-)

calidoug · #5316 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:58 pm

Stormwatcher, you implied my comment was based on "one or two frames", when I had made clear it was based on 12 frames.

Mere oversight, I assume.

rxdoc · #5317 Postby **rxdoc** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:59 pm

I've noticed the west Gulf Coasters really pick up on a model when it trends their way. Seriously, though, the CMC has been the most consistent with making this a Appalachicola westward strike. I think it is now trending too far west, but I agree it has performed the best thus far.

rdcrds · #5318 Postby **rdcrds** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:59 pm

If uoi look at the last frame it made a jot back to the west.It is going to make jots like that whenever you get a storm this big.If this storm was a Cat 3 Nobody would be talking about anything but a west northwest movement right now.

I hope and pray that it goes somewhere where the population is very low.

Raebie · #5319 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:59 pm

Thanks Possum. Didn't mean to question you, just didn't understand the dynamics of the radar!

Sean in New Orleans · #5320 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:59 pm

Deana Cuevas wrote:Thanks for answering me. I have been on pins and needles with all this. I think I have been glued to this site.

Don't be on "pins and needles." All local mets here have been saying one thing, with almost certainty, and that is that Ivan will be much weaker by the time it gets to the Northern Gulf of Mexico--at least weaker than a cat. 5----probably a category 3, maybe even a 2...

Ivan Advisories

Re: Eye contracting, NW turn beginning?

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