Ivan Advisories

[calidoug]

lilbump3000,

Good thing for the NHC that it looks like they may have finally gotten it right!

[USAwx1]

As Always, GREAT work Don.

[NorthGaWeather]

Starting this again tonight I see. Well maybe tonight you will be right since you were far from it last night.

[rdcrds]

will you guys give it a break gezz.If you look at the last 12 it is not going at 300.

[Ixolib]

Here are the latest thoughts from John Gumm, local met here in New Orleans on WWL-TV. As most of you know, our local mets, here in New Orleans, have been posting on a local weather forum with detailied discussions for our area. This discussion mainly pertains to metropolitan New Orleans. He sounds much more concerned this evening about the New Orleans region.

Sean - I saw last night where you mentioned you were in contact with some folks off shore. What are you hearing from this this evening? Are the rigs doing anything more aggressive in response to the model trends?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've been in agreement with this model up until now...I don't see the storm coming this far West. I'm still thinking a Mobile to Panama City landfall...

[calidoug]

rdcrds, actually in the 0345Z frame, it appears to continue at about 300, from the 0315Z.

One other thing though: the eye has started to distort. A bit of weakening? An EWRC?

[AL Chili Pepper]

The GFS is cranking out more of the same. Looks the same through 66 hours. South of Panama City.

[Stormcenter]

I would consider New Orleans, MS, AL, and the Panhandle all Eastern if you divide it in half...that is not talking about the central GOM

Sorry but New Orleans, MS. & AL is considered the central GOM coastline.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here are the latest thoughts from John Gumm, local met here in New Orleans on WWL-TV. As most of you know, our local mets, here in New Orleans, have been posting on a local weather forum with detailied discussions for our area. This discussion mainly pertains to metropolitan New Orleans. He sounds much more concerned this evening about the New Orleans region.

Sean - I saw last night where you mentioned you were in contact with some folks off shore. What are you hearing from this this evening? Are the rigs doing anything more aggressive in response to the model trends?

All rigs off of Louisiana are evacuating as of today....

[Deana Cuevas]

Thanks! I flip the channels on my local stations and some say one thing and some say another, about t he same though. It just the way they say it. Like most here in the Bay area we are just so stressed and I guess, well speaking for my self I'm looking for the "crystal ball". I have learned alot on this site. I thank everyone for answering my questions.

[corpusbreeze]

I dont think the trough will be low or strong enough to draw Ivan up into Florida. Charley had a STRONG front to move him north, and there was some doubt if it could do it. I van is going west .

[calidoug]

rdcrds, You may be right-- it looks like about 305 now, from 2145Z through 0345Z. (12 frames)

Again, as this is the NHC forecast track, it isn't a surprise, really.

[rdcrds]

im going to bed but you need a eye check if you think it is moving 305 goodnight.

[miamijaaz]

too bad that was the last frame, this thread was just getting interesting!

[Possum Trot]

Well, anytime a frame goes W, its considered a turn and movement.

But anytime a frame goes NW, its considered a wobble.

But, this does appear to just be a wobble. Too bad the sattellite will go bye bye soon.

It seems that yesterday, anytime a frame went NW, it was considered movement, and anytime a frame went W, it was considered a wobble.

I've been wondering, how many wobbles are there in a trend? And how many jogs are there in a wobble?

[stormwatcher]

calidoug, I went back and looked at the frames from the first to last and Ivan has moved more to 300. I was looking at each individual frames and not looking at the whole picture. Once again sorry if I offended you.

[gkrangers]

Well, anytime a frame goes W, its considered a turn and movement.

But anytime a frame goes NW, its considered a wobble.

But, this does appear to just be a wobble. Too bad the sattellite will go bye bye soon.

It seems that yesterday, anytime a frame went NW, it was considered movement, and anytime a frame went W, it was considered a wobble.

I've been wondering, how many wobbles are there in a trend? And how many jogs are there in a wobble?

Really? Damn, I thought I noticed it the other way around. Right now, its back to W is wobble and NW is movement.

Maybe we'll just say its wobbling between the W and NW, on a general WNW movement and climbing the stepladder towards western cuba.

Either way, its not going ot be a fun 24 hours for Grand Cayman.

[Stormcenter]

Motion from 2115Z through 0315Z appears to be about 300.

Bad news for Grand Cayman.

Eye appears to be contracting in the last couple frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also might be entraining a little bit of drier air from the NW... convection not as intense on that side....

They call it a wobble which is what it's been doing all day.
Though it really does need to start turning NW now otherwise some of you guys in Florida are going to have a nervous breakdown.

Don't start with that. All we've heard all day from everyone east of Florida is west, west, west!!!! It seems the folks from LA, Miss, AL and TX are the ones who will suffer from a nervous break down. We here in FL have had our share of storms, so if it keeps going west, we are OK with that.

Then why not join the so called "west" bandwagon and not continue to sound like you want it to come to Florida if you really don't want there?

[calidoug]

rdcrds, it helps to use large images, use your mouse pointer to mark the eye at start, etc. Just "watching" can be misleading.

Or try "rocking" instead of "looping".

Given your heightened sensitivity to S movement, it may be easier for you to see that while watching the reverse portion of the loop, than to see N movement in the forward portion.