Ivan Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

that inner eye wall is so very close to them though, any wobble brings it right over them

[Ixolib]

West and south... South and west... Left - but no right, hmmmm??? I love this graphic (link posted earlier by Weathernole): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

[jlauderdal]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

They are changing with every run and in this 12:00 one they did the same but not a huge change in the tracks from the 6:00 run.

well for thos tracks to verify this thing better make a big league turn real quick and i just dont see it. if i living on the yucatan i would be watching this system real close and if i lived on the west coast of florida i would do the same.

[mobilebay]

The GFS noreaster continues... part 37.

[tailgater]

looking at lenghty IR loop it seems it was moving slower(7or 8) on the sw side of jamiaca but last few hrs. 9-11 mph. IMO

[caneman]

The GFS noreaster continues... part 37.

Noreaster? More like a front picking up the system and shunting it East. Happens all the time,

[sunupgal]

I've been lurking on this site for days now, but no nothing about how to forcast hurricanes. My question for you is this...I live on Clearwater Beach, west of Tampa Bay, on the water. I woke up this morning and the mets are acting like we are barely going to get a glance from Ivan. Although this is wonderful news, isn't he still too far away to give me that much piece of mind? I would love to sleep without worrying, but can I yet?

[jlauderdal]

I've been lurking on this site for days now, but no nothing about how to forcast hurricanes. My question for you is this...I live on Clearwater Beach, west of Tampa Bay, on the water. I woke up this morning and the mets are acting like we are barely going to get a glance from Ivan. Although this is wonderful news, isn't he still too far away to give me that much piece of mind? I would love to sleep without worrying, but can I yet?

hey throw you two cents in..not like anyone else has put up forecast that is anything to be real happy about.

[Aquawind]

Models. They suck alrighty.. Taking us all for a ride lately they have..

[jlauderdal]

WNW over the last 15 hrs. with wobbles NW and W but the speed concerns me. That northerly turn will be harder to take place at speeds above 10 mph.

Ivan-Speed-NW-N should not all be used int he same sentence.

[mobilebay]

The GFS noreaster continues... part 37.

Noreaster? More like a front picking up the system and shunting it East. Happens all the time,

Yea I'm way off base here! The GFs has been off by several hundred miles the entire track of Ivan. It tried to turn ivan out in the middle of he North Atlantic three days ago. It is WAY east of the rest of Guidence. the 00Z run is already to the right of track. GIVE me a break!

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

either way the winds are gusting 150+, inner eye wall or not. staying 30+mi south and west would at least spare those poor folks sustained winds beyond imaginable. this is a frightening storm, unfortunately.

[caneman]

I've been lurking on this site for days now, but no nothing about how to forcast hurricanes. My question for you is this...I live on Clearwater Beach, west of Tampa Bay, on the water. I woke up this morning and the mets are acting like we are barely going to get a glance from Ivan. Although this is wonderful news, isn't he still too far away to give me that much piece of mind? I would love to sleep without worrying, but can I yet?

Hey, I'm in PInellas too. Unfortunately it is a wait and see and now seems much slower. Go out and enjoy the day. I'm going to.

[wasup254]

Is the high going to maintian the protection of Florida? or are there signs of weakening?

What is the area that runs south to north across Florida and into the gOM? Is this what is suppsoed to pull Ivan north?

Is it a matter of Ivan getting to that latitude, then north track?

Could Ivan get their latitude wise and then make a turn inland, more in the area of Fort Myers??? Or is this feature over Florida not strong is enough to pull Ivan that much?

Thanks for insights. I have no clue for what feature is winning out or what dynamics are changing.

[Derek Ortt]

last cayman ob shows pressure at 972.4mb and falling about 2mb every 10 minutes. a south wind of 0 was reported (probably meaning we ar enot getting anything legitimate any longer)

[cycloneye]

I've been lurking on this site for days now, but no nothing about how to forcast hurricanes. My question for you is this...I live on Clearwater Beach, west of Tampa Bay, on the water. I woke up this morning and the mets are acting like we are barely going to get a glance from Ivan. Although this is wonderful news, isn't he still too far away to give me that much piece of mind? I would love to sleep without worrying, but can I yet?

You are not in the clear yet in that area because any deviation to the right of the projected track may bring more bad weather to you and also the surf will rise there if it passes well west of you or not and that is why you have to continue to watch the track of Ivan closely.However if Ivan moves more WNW or NW than projected then that area be in the good window to not get bad weather except for the high tides.

[caneman]

The GFS noreaster continues... part 37.

Noreaster? More like a front picking up the system and shunting it East. Happens all the time,

Yea I'm way off base here! The GFs has been off by several hundred miles the entire track of Ivan. It tried to turn ivan out in the middle of he North Atlantic three days ago. It is WAY east of the rest of Guidence. the 00Z run is already to the right of track. GIVE me a break!

Do you see the front hanging over the Norther Gulf? Right now there is no way it is going West of the Panhandle. OF course, a stall or very slow movement might give time for a pattern change but that doesn't look to be the case.

[dhweather]

Looks like the tops are cooling on IR. Perhaps the trend continues - pressure up as ERC starts, then return to a cat 5.

[Ixolib]

I always use the rule of latitude. If it's well north of your latitude - and even better if it's made landfall - then you're pretty much "outta the woods". Otherwise, keep on watchin'.

[sunupgal]

Thanks for the info. I will continue my stressfilled monitoring. Just can't forget how they told us for days Charley was coming over my house, and then 4 hours before he was supposed to hit, he turns 60 miles south of us. 60 miles on this one could get really bad for me.