DT's New forecast out...

[ericinmia]

Here it is:
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS:

He states he wished he stayed with his original forecast intead of shifting to what the models shifted to...
Here is his track forecast:
A=30%
B=45%
C=25%


The new Guidepoint is where the storm passes the isle of youth, in the coming days. If its west of it, path A. If its over it, path B into Tampa. If its east of it, path C into the southwest everglades to port charlotte where charley came rumbling in.
C would be no good for me... lol, nice rhyme.
-Eric

[dennis1x1]

now THATS a cone!!

[ericinmia]

In the forecast he talks about his cone...
from N.O. to the everglades....

He is about covered... he even talks about a possible hit on the Yucatan. Now he is set!
I like his forecasts though.... its good supplemental reasoning.
-Eric

[WeatherNole]

Interesting analysis. I did have one question about the following though:

There are three possible track in and /or near the Isle of Youth. A) IVAN track well south and west of the Island or youth and /or swings west of the TIP of Cuba. This track could result in a Landfall as from Mobile AL to as far west as New Orleans 30% chance

B) over the Island of Youth and west of Havana This sort of track would strongly suggest that IVAN could cross into the Gulf and then begin in tun NNE or NE and make landfall somewhere between Tampa Bay and Apalachicola. 45% chance

C) East of the Island of Youth and /ver or east of Havana. This sort of track would strongly suggest that IVAN could cross into the Gulf and then begin in tun NNE or NE and make landfall somewhere between Tampa Bay and the SW Everglades === 25% chance

OK - so we have
A) Mobile to New Orleans - 30%
B)Tampa Bay to Apalachicola - 45%
C)Tampa Bay to SW Everglades - 25%

So I guess there is a 0% chance of landfall BETWEEN Apalachicola and Mobile??

Mike

--

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

great point. i thought i was the only one who picked up on that

[Lockhart]

Yet again, he ends up saying the hurricane will go where the NHC said--after saying for days that they're nuts. Speaking as someone from Miami (ground zero for him for the last two hurricanes), I'm very happy to see him proven totally wrong yet again.

[roostercogburn]

DT is saying that the central west coast is still in play? I think he is wrong here. But we'll see.