Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

Yikes.

[roostercogburn]

Good questions.

[Anonymous]

I know, but my point was the eye would miss the big island, by a nice margin. It did.

Watch out on the Yucatan, as Ivan's speed is now at 9 mph, as opposed to his 7-8 mph from late yesterday.

[Aquawind]

Well here is a cookie..Good Analogy..

Alot could happen with the track if this slow speed continues or it stalls..

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

the storm hasn't even passed G.C.s latitude yet - if he turns north, then you're wrong with a 6 hour forecast. I understand what youre saying but you're overanalyzing in your own right. please.

[Hurrilurker]

According to that instument, they've already received 86% of their annual rainfall from Ivan...yikes (but it says inches, don't see how they could get 79" in a day). I also notice the other Grand Cayman weather station linked on that page (Red Bay) went down at like 6-something last night. The Savannah station recorded a 79 mph wind gust at its last update, which was now two hours ago.

[Anonymous]

Ya really think so?

[Aquawind]

I hope all the people there are doing ok I dont even want to kno what it would be like to be there knowing that you have no place to go

trust me...they arent doing ok.

I hear ya...not ok at all..worst blast yet from Ivan..

[LuckyStrike]

Yeah I don't see how it can go so far west as the models predict. Look at the WV imagery and you can see that ULL east of the Carolinas elongate and begin to shunt off to the north in response to the front. Ivan looks only to be delaying the inevitable

[Bane]

It will be interesting to see if this new rightward shift continues in future models.

[nickd]

The models yesterday had Ivan going WNW,NW,N. That has not happened. I have just seen WNW.

Now what if he continues WNW towards the yucatan slowly, the ridge starts to break he turns more NW, then north and then NNE or Ne towards say cedar key as the trough digs in.

The models are begining to get a little bend NE at 120 hours. Ivan has not been cooperating as far as the timing of all these features. Remember he is now 24 hours behind the forecast of 2 days ago.

As things changed in the atmosphere yesterday they will change again unless Ivan starts going along with the NHC. The more he takes his sweet time west things will start to change again. Indeed it will be one interesting week ahead.

(I am as amateur as you can get. I hope this made sense to some of you. If a met can clarify these possibilities in a more professional way it would be appreciated.)

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, USAwx1.

We'll see how things work out. I'm still concerned the turn could occur a little later.

[Hurrilurker]

also, sats show the eye wall is now over cayman.

Huh? I'm looking at the sat and I don't see any frame where the eye is even near the island (ok it's near in a sense relative tot he whole Gulf, but there's no way the sat shows the eye over Grand Cayman). The closest edge looks to be about 30 miles or so south. Which graphic are you looking at?

[Brent]

also, sats show the eye wall is now over cayman.

Huh? I'm looking at the sat and I don't see any frame where the eye is even near the island (ok it's near in a sense relative tot he whole Gulf, but there's no way the sat shows the eye over Grand Cayman). The closest edge looks to be about 30 miles or so south. Which graphic are you looking at?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

You can see the eyewall. Georgetown is on the south end I believe.

[Derek Ortt]

the eye wall is where the worst of the weather is. The eye wall is right over Cayman

[Ixolib]

Thanks, USAwx1.

We'll see how things work out. I'm still concerned the turn could occur a little later.

...and if the turn is a little later, does that change your track further west? Or is it mainly an observation on deminished shear?

[SeaBrz_FL]

John Madura, chief of the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office, made these comments in our local paper this morning:

If the track forecast holds up, the Space Coast could get 20 to 30 mph sustained winds Monday night into Tuesday, he said, with higher gusts. Experts encouraged residents not to let their guard down, however.

"Right now we've got to get it north of Cuba . . . then see what kind of atmosphere we've got," said John Madura, chief of the Kennedy Space Center weather office.

It appears a strong high-pressure ridge over Florida has delayed the hurricane's expected northward turn, but Madura is keeping an eye on a low-pressure trough coming from the west that could push Ivan east.

"If this thing slows down," he said, "we could get some westerlies in here, and we could be in trouble."

....

Forecasting storms in the Atlantic is more straightforward, Madura said, because the Bermuda high plays such a large role in their track.

"The Gulf of Mexico is hard to forecast," he said. "It's notorious. It's the graveyard of busted forecasts."

[melhow]

"The Gulf of Mexico is hard to forecast," he said. "It's notorious. It's the graveyard of busted forecasts."

Perfect, right-on statement.

[Hurrilurker]

Ah, you were looking at the visible, I was looking at IR, shame on me. Still, it's not quite a direct hit, I think another 20-30 miles north would have been a lot worse. Now can I make an admittedly poor joke about the only place they have left to go is to Hell? Don't censor me, it's an actual town on the northwest corner of Grand Cayman! Couldn't believe it when I saw that on a map.

[Brent]

Ah, you were looking at the visible, I was looking at IR, shame on me. Still, it's not quite a direct hit, I think another 20-30 miles north would have been a lot worse. Now can I make an admittedly poor joke about the only place they have left to go is to Hell? Don't censor me, it's an actual town on the northwest corner of Grand Cayman! Couldn't believe it when I saw that on a map.

I think the whole island is hell right now.