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Weatherboy1
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diving low in Arkansas ...

#5621 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:31 am

What appears to be a mid-upper low is diving SE over the US and is now into Arkansas, with a trailing shortwave trough to its SW. You can see this in WV imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

The 11 p.m. NHC discussion mentioned this feature:

AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED.


This could be a key player in the forecast of Ivan, in my opinion. Once it gets to within about 10 degrees of Ivan (it's about 12-15 right now, but closing the gap fast), it should start helping him stall and turn more NW and maybe N. If the trailing trough digs far south enough (not currently forecast to do so, by the way), it could force a sharper turn. It's definitely something to watch.
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Brent
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#5622 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:31 am

Bane wrote:It will be interesting to see if this new rightward shift continues in future models.


I noticed that. Better for me. :)
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wasup254
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#5623 Postby wasup254 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:31 am

timing is the key here....we all thought Thursday, that he was headed for Floirda straight on....not now..
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#5624 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:32 am

cycloneye wrote:Looking at the track this morning still I think that at least a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Penninsula is needed just in case Ivan deviates more to the west than forecasted.


You stole my words. This one keeps moving left of the official forecast...
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#5625 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:33 am

caneman wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
caneman wrote:
mobilebay wrote:The GFS noreaster continues... part 37.


Noreaster? More like a front picking up the system and shunting it East. Happens all the time,

Yea I'm way off base here! The GFs has been off by several hundred miles the entire track of Ivan. It tried to turn ivan out in the middle of he North Atlantic three days ago. It is WAY east of the rest of Guidence. the 00Z run is already to the right of track. GIVE me a break!


Do you see the front hanging over the Norther Gulf? Right now there is no way it is going West of the Panhandle. OF course, a stall or very slow movement might give time for a pattern change but that doesn't look to be the case.


The trough (old front)over the GOM should move north.
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#5626 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:35 am

any chance of this pulling an Isidore...getting "sucked" into the Yucatan and weakening?
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#5627 Postby snowflake » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:38 am

When will the National Hurricane Center have a better handle on Hurricane Ivan's projected path?
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wasup254
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#5628 Postby wasup254 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:38 am

so the key player is the trough near Arkansas not the clouds over Florida running north and south?
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Brent
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YAY! Stewart doing the 11am advisory package

#5629 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:40 am

:)

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Hopefully a good discussion coming. He usually is very in-depth.
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emerald
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#5630 Postby emerald » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:41 am

thinks sound pretty bad there now - some shelters are now letting in water - rain coming in heavy and flooding has started -
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#5631 Postby gigi » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:42 am

What is this system east of the Carolinas?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Gigi
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MBryant
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#5632 Postby MBryant » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:43 am

If the darned green would stop moving, it'd be a lot easier to read this putt.
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#5633 Postby Aquawind » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:44 am

Agreed..
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#5634 Postby wxwatcher2 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:45 am

storm4u wrote:I hope all the people there are doing ok I dont even want to kno what it would be like to be there knowing that you have no place to go :(


They are NOT having a nice sunday morning.
If you mean by "ok" that they are still alive then
they are probably ok.

THe thing about these storms is that it litteraly takes months and even
years to fix and rebuild and recover.
I have the highest respect for the power of a hurricane.
They can damage more than just property, they damage your soul.
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Brent
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What will Ivan's strength be at landfall in the U.S.?

#5635 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:45 am

Vote.
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cycloneye
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Looks like Ivan will pass south and west of Isle of Youth

#5636 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:45 am

That is an important point of reference that may make Ivan spend less time (The Eye) over Cuba and may be important down the road in terms of the track thru the GOM.
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Three Blind Mice
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#5637 Postby Three Blind Mice » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 am

The young gun.....
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melhow
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#5638 Postby melhow » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 am

Maybe I am off, but I though that Stacy Stewart was a she...?....
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wjs3
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#5639 Postby wjs3 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 am

I agree too.

And I'm sometimes worried that I'm reading so many discussions I can tell who wrote them just by their tone/wording--I don't even need to see the "signature".

Maybe I need to take a break?
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tracyswfla
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#5640 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:47 am

Yea! Good for Stewart! I enjoy his discussions!
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