The models yesterday had Ivan going WNW,NW,N. That has not happened. I have just seen WNW.
Now what if he continues WNW towards the yucatan slowly, the ridge starts to break he turns more NW, then north and then NNE or Ne towards say cedar key as the trough digs in.
The models are begining to get a little bend NE at 120 hours. Ivan has not been cooperating as far as the timing of all these features. Remember he is now 24 hours behind the forecast of 2 days ago.
As things changed in the atmosphere yesterday they will change again unless Ivan starts going along with the NHC. The more he takes his sweet time west things will start to change again. Indeed it will be one interesting week ahead.
(I am as amateur as you can get. I hope this made sense to some of you. If a met can clarify these possibilities in a more professional way it would be appreciated.)
changes?
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