Ivan Advisories

[Ormond Suzie]

No, this was proved out by a picture from a conference posted over at flhurricane - Stacy Stewart is a he.

[Brent]

Maybe I am off, but I though that Stacy Stewart was a she...?....

Nope. It's Stacey Stewart I believe. I'll dig up the picture of him in a minute.

[vbhoutex]

The clouds over N. FL are a washed out front without a trough that would have the pull to bring Ivan more NE or North. Besides that Ivan is still at least 12 degrees South of any of these features that could pull him more North. He needs to be within 8-10 degrees of the features to "feel" them and respond to them. The low with the trailing trough has pulled another front through our area(Houston) this morning and is headed East, however it is not very strong so there may not be as much effect as currently thought by some. We shall see. Right now with the current set up I see I do not expect much of a turn for at least another 24 hours and if the incoming trough(that is what is out in front of the cold front)doesn't strengthen more I am not sure if it and Ivan will "feel" each other, which could bring up another time of very weak steering currents in the Gulf where Ivan is now headed and unfortunately more questions as to his final landfall area.

All that being said, I still think that the W FL panhandle is still the most likely area of landfall at this time.

[wxwatcher2]

I find that I trust pretty much what the NHC says and Stewart is the best.

I think the reason why most tv stations no longer go to the NHC in Miami for live updates is that over the past few years since Neil Frank left etc there have been very frew people down there who can give a good live interview on tv.
I guess they are more into computers and maps as they should be and aren't comfortable in front of a tv camera.



Stewart is a HE

[Weatherboy1]

As an update to what I posted earlier, yes, I believe that trough/low is a key player here. There is still some weak ridging to Ivan's north. But if that low/trough dives far enough south, it will "break" part of that ridge, most likely shunting some of it east. This would allow a pathway for Ivan to turn NW then N. The large upper low off the Carolinas helped weaken the ridge earlier (that's why Ivan has been moving so slow). But its eastward progression seems to have stopped and it appears to be starting to pull northward ahead of the last trough exiting the US coast. Not really a player anymore, except for the fact that as that low pulls out, ridging should build in the SW Atlantic ... ridging that should be strong enough to keep Ivan from hooking sharply NNE or NE until he gets very close to the N. Gulf or actually inland.

Anyway, I think this is an accurate description of the current situation. But I'm not a professional ... just a hobbyist who has been following this stuff on the 'Net for several years.

[LuckyStrike]

Yeah, but how do we know the picture isn't bogus?

[Brent]

Yeah, but how do we know the picture isn't bogus?

Here's the picture:

http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/w4ehw/images/St ... season.jpg

[tracyswfla]

Yeah, but how do we know the picture isn't bogus?

Here's the picture:

http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/w4ehw/images/St ... season.jpg[/quot

Thanks Brent!

[Innotech]

Steward analyzes synoptics more. If you see the words "GFDL and other models" its probably Avila.

[Three Blind Mice]

Don't you just miss Neil Franks' passion about canes!!! He was a dynamic head for the NHC.

[Guest]

Did this about a wk ago.

[melhow]

That's a man, alright...Thanks Brent

[TLHR]

A lot has changed in a week

If Ivan misses Cuba altogether, I say Cat 4.

[raynpa]

IMO I think they will have to issue a hurricane watch today if this turn doesnt start soon. Any thoughts?

[Brent]

Possibly. I'm really getting impatient about this turn. Turn already, sheesh.

[lilbump3000]

I say if this system hasnt made a NW turn by the 5 p.m. then we need to issue a hurricane watch. If its still moving to the WNW with its wobbles to the west every now and then then at 11 p.m. they should issue some warnings.

Im not buying the models until this thing starts to turn. But the models just insist on turning this thing to the NW when its still going W to WNW.

[BayouVenteux]

...I think the reason why most tv stations no longer go to the NHC in Miami for live updates is that over the past few years since Neil Frank left etc there have been very frew people down there who can give a good live interview on tv.
I guess they are more into computers and maps as they should be and aren't comfortable in front of a tv camera.

You're right about that...Neil Frank was the Zell Miller of the NHC He had a commanding presence on camera and was always quick to correct or clarify, never letting an interviewer lead the questioning into the realm of baseless speculation or plain stupidity. In contrast, I have seen several of the current NHC officials get this polite bovine stare while trying to supress their obvious frustration when one of the many clueless anchors on the cable news channels takes the interview on a hard turn down Idiot Lane.

Who knows? Maybe Dr. Neil could be hired by the NHC as a consultant to train mets how to better deal with the media, particularly TV.

[Sanibel]

Ivan shot some very dark cloudtops just prior to hitting Grand Cayman...

[raynpa]

Anyone remember Gilbert? Was suppose to make a turn to the north, and it never did.

[ZZ3Astro]

People in Panama City are all too aware of the situation in the rest of Florida. I'd say 60% of the people I've asked are planning to seek shelter or relocation of Ivan drops in on us. The scary thing is the entire area including Destin/Ft Walton has been spared of a strike from a Cat 4+ storm since the 1800's. In the past ten years, the area from Panama City Beach to Navarre has been developed at an unbeleivable rate. Hopefully the post-Opal building codes are effective.

During Opal we saw a storm surge greater than any storm since the 1960's.. and in reality it wasn't a major surge in this area (8 feet at the pier). Even so, in Panama City the primary cause of damage was surge. The clock is ticking and one day a storm with a Cat 4 surge will affect this area.

Our primary plan is to get a motel room in a newer building located inland of the surge areas. We plan to stay in town if at all possible. Hopefully we will return home to a windstorm damage problem and not a pond.. that way my generator will still fire up and we will have AC and Refridge. Better yet, the storm will hopefully fizzle out and become a minimal 1 or 2 before affecting land. In any case, we'll go with the flow and deal with whatever happens.

Anyone else from PC and what are your plans?



ZZ3 is at:

30:07:28.873N
85:34:46.175W