Ivan Advisories

[Mattie]

Read the article closely - it says they do it in the "EMBRYO" stages of hurricanes. . . Ivan is a little past that I believe. AND, if he did it in the embryo stage, then the stuff doesn't work.

[raynpa]

IM THINKING THIS THING WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND HIT TEXAS......ANY THOUGHTS?

[lilbump3000]

Anything is possible right now. Its still not doing what the models have it doing right now.

[LadyStorm]

Number 1 I think it is just an advertising gimic. Number 2 if you fool with mother nature she usually strikes back. She creates these monsters for a reason to maintain environmental balance. It is not wise to try to out smart her.

Yeah right. Cant fool mothernature.

[SwampDawg]

Dear God! Please...

No more Dyn-O-Mat stories.

Still more interesting than pin the track on the Hurricane Map...

[MBryant]

Only if it stalls for a very long time, missing th current troughs and the High over Texas moves away.

[Scott_inVA]

The young gun.....

Stacy would likely blush but appreicate being called a young gun

Somebody's got to be the best and IMO he is.

Scott

[rxdoc]

I am in Lynn Haven. Anything Cat 3 or greater and I will send wife and kids to eastern Georgia with relatives tomorrow. Unfortunately, Cat 3 or greater I have to report to work (picked a wrong time to go back into management).

[Brent]

and

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[vbhoutex]

First of all I want to see some reasoning besides "I think".

2nd of all, with the current pattern in place and what is foreseeable in these patterns, it appears there is no way this could happen.

However, I never say never when I talk the tropics. But if it does happen it would be stranger than strange with the current weather patterns in existance.

[Opal storm]

A Texas hit is almost out of the question.Sooner or later(most likely later) it will take the turn north.

[bobbisboy]

Not impossible.... looking at this WV loop IVAN either misses this totally and goes WEST or he goes much further east than the current NHC track. Here is the trough. Note the reinforcing punch behind the initial trough.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics to follow soon

[Galvestongirl]

I have been joking about this very thing, however, this is a good discussion because it is explaining to me why texas is protected, and I believe it is.

[Pebbles]

LOL I told this story to my hubby this morning over breakfast. He doesn't follow weather at all and finds my facination with it strange. (but guess who calls me first when bad weather is coming and he is on the road all day for work LOL) Even he was laughing and saying it was a promotion stunt and a bunch of BS.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

[Derek Ortt]

I'd rather have Avila or Beven doing these forecasts, but that's just me

[lilbump3000]

Good forecast. I think the yucatan channel is a good possiblilty.

[PurdueWx80]

You need to apply for a job with the NHC. Great forecast!

[Opal storm]

Looks like a AL/western FL Panhandle landfall.