Ivan Advisories

[Rainband]

if anything, this storm could slip under a trough and bend back to mexico

I like that one the best Not that I want Mexico to get the storm but we sure as heck cant handle anymore here in florida

[Derek Ortt]

if this western track continues, I may have no choice but to bring the storm over the Yucatan

[das8929]

Sigh, this thing can go from Brownsville to Key West. INSANE.

[alicia-w]

First of all, I think folks need to realize that this person is very new to the board and qualified his/her statement with: "any thoughts". They're asking for input and clarification as to why Ivan wont be visiting Texas. Please take the time to explain why it most likely wont go there versus rolling the eyes and exhaling with exasperation.

[Portastorm]

Now THAT is a real issue. There are many off-shore facilities in the northern and western Gulf ... should Ivan make his north turn further west in the Gulf ... you'll see those facilities evacuating employees and shutting down. Believe me there are watching!

[Geoff Stormcloud]

Cantore will be in Destin this evening. They will all be moving to the north Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

[wabbitoid]

Between staying over water longer and keeping up the cat 5 strength and waiting for the trough to stall and apparently fall apart, I think each passing hour is more and more critical.

If Ivan were intelligent, I'd say he's doing everything he can to pick his own path.

[Ivanova]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

wow... this graph shows Ivan making it through the channel
with plenty of room to spare... after that... there is smooth
sailing ahead... for Ivan, this is !

But what if Ivan doesn't turn N - NE !

[Ixolib]

Cantore will be in Destin this evening. They will all be moving to the north Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

North Central?

[donsutherland1]

At 11 am, Ivan was centered at 19.0N 81.5W and tracking west-northwestward. At this point in time, if the current course holds, Ivan will pass some 20-30 miles south of the position I had estimated for 82.5W.

The start of a gradual curve more to the north could narrow that gap. For now, I'm reasonably comfortable with last night's outlined track, and will leave it alone:

20.0N 82.5W
22.5N 84.3W
25.0N 85.3W
27.5N 85.8W
30.0N 85.7W

[Nimbus]

Above 20N storms gradually recurve on their own unless there is something to steer them west. The ridge is steering Ivan WNW and that steering should hold until he gets into the gulf of Mexico. Three frames is not enough to be sure, but it looks as though Ivan has picked up speed in the direction of the channel.

Once in the gulf the steering will be dictated either by the ridge strengthening more than forecast or by Ivans natural recurve plus any steering from the trough that is currently moving south into the gulf.

The concern is that once Ivan gets into the gulf the steering will weaken. Ivan could even slow down and taco around to the east the way Charley did. On the other hand if the ridge strengthened more than forecast Ivan might push further NW before recurving.

[drezee]

THe outer eyewall is quite dominant. Once it contracts to a smaller size, Ivan will more than likely become the strongest it has ever been. The supp vortex message showed higher winds in the outer eye wall in both quads searched.

410
URNT12 KNHC 121439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1439Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
81 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2411 M
D. 080 KT
E. 323 DEG 045 NM
F. 069 DEG 131 KT
G. 326 DEG 025 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3031 M
J. 17 C/ 3032 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-50
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.



URNT14 KNHC 121515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01200 10825 13060 11007 06075
02199 20824 23046 21005 06067
03197 30822 33017 30909 06072
04195 40820 43951 40909 07101
05193 50818 53845 50909 07131
06192 60817 63658 61313 07102
MF193 M0818 MF131
OBS 01 AT 1408Z
OBS 06 AT 1433Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 05055
01188 10814 13679 11512 21093
02186 20811 23876 21010 21110
03184 30809 33968 30909 21085
04182 40808 43020 40909 22075
05180 50806 53050 50909 20071
06179 60804 63070 60908 21067
07178 70803 73081 70808 22066
MF187 M0812 MF119
OBS 01 AT 1443Z
OBS 07 AT 1512Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 20045
RMK AF866 2409A IVAN OB 11

[PurdueWx80]

Derek - I realize the Eta is generally understood to have poor forecasts of tropical systems (haven't actually seen the verification of this, everyone just keeps mentioning it). However, there were some changes to the physics of the model w/i the last 6-10 months according to some friends of mine. I noticed the Eta was forecasting convective complexes to produce mesoscale convective vortices a lot this summer, and many of these verified. Models in the past haven't been able to forecast such things, so in my mind it was a big win for the Eta. Anyway, what do you think of the Eta track? It has a look eerily similar to Camille and has been pretty consistent in this NNW heading at landfall for several runs (also takes it through the Channel). Since it is in relative agreement w/ the CMC, which has performed well so far as you know, I'm inclined to wonder just how well it may be doing with Ivan. The Eta's track of Ivan seems consistent w/ it's synoptic pattern (and the upper level winds would favor massive outflow on the northern semi-circle of the storm). Any thoughts here?

[alicia-w]

alicia, drove by the HD in Destin this a.m., you wouldn't beleive the line already. (that was about 8:30)

Is the line for folks picking up plywood? I think we're going over there to get some anchors for the shed out back and to go over to Crystal Beach Seafood and get some fish for the grill.....

[rjgator]

Even if it worked it would most likely create a Ice age if it was used repeatedly and could cause a scenario like in the movie "The Day AFter". Hurricanes help to transfer heat from the equator poleward. THe hotter the water the more intense the storm and essentially the more reason for the storm. THe earth is a very balenced system that we mess with enough already. If we want to protect ourselves from hurricanes increase all coastal area building codes to 150+ MPH and be done with it...........

[MetroMike]

Well I'm in Pinellas Co. also and according to the 11am discussion the steering currents will be weakening even further. We are still in that cone of uncentainty, so just keep watching for changes if any.

[HurricaneJim]

NHC is a government agency responsible for lives, really. Thay have to think in that box. This pre-dates the center itself.

Remember the p*%$ing match with the Cuban weather service on the Galveston storm (Issac's storm...the book)?

Either way, they're a dedicated bunch and they do a good job.

Jim

[Derek Ortt]

I havnt been checking the eta, so I wouldnt know either way

I do intend to shift even farther left at 11 unless some world changing data comes in between now and then to convince me otherwise

[alicia-w]

They are working on that apparently:

http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/djh/200409101452DOWJONESDJONLINE000867.htm

[Ixolib]

First of all, I think folks need to realize that this person is very new to the board and qualified his/her statement with: "any thoughts". They're asking for input and clarification as to why Ivan wont be visiting Texas. Please take the time to explain why it most likely wont go there versus rolling the eyes and exhaling with exasperation.

THANK YOU, Alicia!! And I'll second that motion. Ma'ma always taught - "If 'ya can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". The same should hold for adults as well. We can have good discussion without the eyes, exhaling, exasperation, and sarcasm.