Floydbuster's 11th Ivan Forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 11
Sunday September 12, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Ivan the terrible, Ivan the monster, Ivan the record breaker, Ivan the Killer... Call him anyone of those names you want.... they are all true.

Ivan is still an extraordinary hurricane with winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 919 mb. It might regain category 5 status... It is moving towards the west-northwest at 9 mph. I expect that general motion to continue fot the next 36 hours, bring the center of Ivan near or to the Southwest or the Isle of Youth, then into Cuba. I have it doing this at category 5 intensity. I then think after 36 hours, a due north track followed by a northeast track as the trough moves in. As Ivan crosses over Western Cuba.... the land is flat...

I feel that Hurricane Ivan will become a category 5 hurricane once again and then weaken to a very strong category 4 as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, I think the hurricane may have some shear that will prevent it from intensifying MORE, however, I feel that Ivan will keep himself in check and make landfall along the west coast of Florida as a category 4 hurricane.

NOTE: THERE IS GREAT DEAL OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE IVAN MAY GO ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND EVEN IF THE ENVIORNMENT MIGHT FAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION.. WATCH OUT.

12 HRS-- 19.9N-- 82.3W-- 140 kt
24 HRS-- 21.9 N--83.4 W-- 140 kt (HITTING CUBA)
36 HRS-- 22.9N-- 83.6 W-- 135 kt (OVER WATER)
48 HRS-- 25.0N-- 83.5 W-- 130 kt
72 HRS-- 27.0N-- 83.3 W-- 125 kt
96 HRS-- 29.4N-- 83.2 W-- 100 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 30.2N-- 83.0 W-- 50 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

[MysticOne]

All I can say is that I hope you are wrong!

(That is not a criticism of your well thought out forecast - Just a prayer!!!)

[PurdueWx80]

I'm not saying this to criticize your forecast, but all 12Z models have trended west, some as far west as 92W in the Gulf (GEM). NOGAPS is now near New Orleans, Eta = Camille, and GFS is near Panama City. Based on your discussion, I assume you don't buy the model's prediction of the building ridge east of Ivan.

[AL Chili Pepper]

That would be dramatic. The way it's headed now...with an increase in forward speed....I just can't see it.

[x-y-no]

I'm not saying this to criticize your forecast, but all 12Z models have trended west, some as far west as 92W in the Gulf (GEM). NOGAPS is now near New Orleans, Eta = Camille, and GFS is near Panama City. Based on your discussion, I assume you don't buy the model's prediction of the building ridge east of Ivan.

Yeah, I'm getting concerned for Missisippi and even Louisiana - the GFS has been underestimating the ridge all along (and during Frances too) I don't know why one would think it isn't still doing so.

[Anonymous]

The trough and high are backing to the east, and big hurricanes tends to seem to move more poleward after 20 N.

[TS Zack]

We need to watch and see what that shortwave does.

[Anonymous]

Yep.