Ivan Advisories

[LAwxrgal]

^Camille did hit Mississippi right?

[bfez1]

NP

[Ivanova]

I wonder if the "New City" in Nostradamus X-49
could be New Orleans

That is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS.... Go back and read the Nostradamus passage you are referring to.... At the beginning, you will clearly see the following "EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY - USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR"

need URL for that quote


*

[Agua]

Yes. It wasn't anticipated 3 days out. Everything pointing to FL Panhandle.

[Edit to include the following:] Of course, the idea of computer models as powerful as there are now probably sounded like science fiction back then.

[mobilebay]

once again is there any doubt the track will be shifted west.

[crabbyhermit]

AS part of that story from nola.com, go to this link and click on the link for a JPG of the newspaper graphics.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... under.html

What you should notice is that there are areas of the city, esp nearer the river, that are actually above sea level and are not projected to have significant flooding even in a cat 4. Thankfully, I'm in one of those areas near the river, but the more central parts of the city and by the lakefront would get it bad. Anyway, if you're from here and would like to see whether or not your part of town might flood, check out this graphic.

[MBryant]

Camille did head North, but was different in that it wasn't a fully developed Cat 5 until it was well north of the others.

[Agua]

Heh ... excuse me. Four beers this early doesn't help my reading comprehension skills.

[bfez1]

Even it passes 90 W we don't want to be on the E side of the storm.

[lilbump3000]

All the models have really shifted to the west. Even the GFS now has a central to western panhandle landfall and all the other models are more to the west. Expect the tropical models to respond to these global models soon. I cant wait to the 5 p.m. track comes out.

[bfez1]

But they are all still talking FL landfall!

[PurdueWx80]

12Z canadian actually goes in to the far SW part of Louisiana...insanity!

[bfez1]

Which would part New Orleans on the E side of the storm. Not good.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Models are becoming very lost--just as our local mets said they would a couple of days ago. They are only trending west because Ivan is moving more west. The NHC and most forecasters are only trending west because Ivan is still moving west. Nobody seems to really know. It's time to incorporate old-fashioned forecasting...glue yourself to all barometric pressures all over the Gulf, Yucatan, Cuba, and eventually the Gulf Coast. And stare at satellite and analyze every cloud!! It's at times like this that I get really annoyed that we even have computer models. They are recent tools in forecasting and are man-made. Too many people (including some mets) seem to think that they are the forecast--THEY ARE NOT! They are simple predictions by man-made computer programs. They handle things much, much better in the Winter. Nevertheless, from looking at Ivan's history the past two days, and viewing satellite today, it appears likely that Ivan will pass 90W over the Gulf. Where? That's the million dollar question, but, it likely will, IMO. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

But they are all still talking FL landfall!

Maybe it's that "Super FSU Ensemble" that's making them stick easterly.

[mobilebay]

But they are all still talking FL landfall!

NO there not. The new models are trending Louisiana,Mississippi,alabama, Northwest Florida.

[flair]

I agree with the Yucatan needing a watch. What is even more suprising is that the Yucatan is not even in the "cone", even with Ivan steadily getting closer.

[mobilebay]

But they are all still talking FL landfall!

Sorry bfez a get what you where sying now. sorry.

[crabbyhermit]

WHERE Y'AT, NASH? WE NEED YOU AND YOUR MAGIC MARKERS!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 12, 2004 1:09 p.m.


As of 8AM EDT, Hurricane Ivan was located near 18.8 North, 81.2 West or about 35 miles south of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands. Ivan's maximum sustained winds are currently near 155 mph with higher gusts. Ivan is moving to the west-northwest near 9 mph with a minimum central pressure of 919 millibars or 27.14 inches.


Satellite imagery shows Ivan has been moving a bit westerly in the latest images. However, a west-northwesterly component is still expected to continue. As of now, the eye of Ivan is remaining south of Grand Cayman Island keeping the strongest winds offshore. However the northern portion of Ivan is still pounding Grand Cayman with damaging winds and drenching rains. Hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from the center of Ivan while tropical storm force winds extend out up to 175 miles.


Fluctuations in intensity with Ivan are expected to continue. However, Ivan is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane.


The latest track projections will have the center of Ivan passing south of Grand Cayman with a gradual movement to the west-northwest. This should position Ivan west of Grand Cayman later today. Ivan is then expected to move more northwesterly which would bring the center of the storm near the western end of Cuba or through the Yucatan Channel by Monday evening. Ivan may move west enough to affect parts of the Yucatan peninsula or east enough to affect a larger portion of Cuba. It is important to remember that impacts can be felt miles away from the center of Ivan.


At this time, the latest projection for the center of Ivan has it tracking about 300 miles west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning and about 200 miles west of the Florida West Coast. Ivan's center should be about 200 miles west of Tampa at 9 PM Tuesday. Even at this distance, the West Coast of Florida could still see outer bands from Ivan move through bringing tropical downpours and gusty winds at times. Some minor beach erosion or overwash cannot be ruled out along the West Coast beaches of Florida as Ivan moves northward.


At this point, there is still some divergence in the track of Ivan. Ivan could turn more east towards the Florida Big Bend or more west towards the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf Coasts. The most likely spot for a landfall appears to be in the central Florida panhandle on Wednesday evening. Should Ivan stall and move slower or make an erratic wobble the track, timing and ultimate landfall destination of Ivan.


Residents along the entire Gulf Coast along with Florida and Georgia should continue to monitor the track of Ivan. Additionally even residents well inland in the Southeast should continue to watch Ivan's path as even after Ivan makes a landfall a threat for heavy rains and flooding will be in existence.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic there are three tropical waves. One wave is near 32 west, 21 north; a second is near 52 west, 19 north and the third is near 63 west, 22 north. All are moving west west between 10 and 20 mph. At this time no further intensification is expected with these features.