Ivan Advisories

[Sean in New Orleans]

WHERE Y'AT, NASH? WE NEED YOU AND YOUR MAGIC MARKERS!

He's still taking care of his elderly, sweet wife--he's been at her side, now, for over 10 years...

[webke]

When I looked at the models this time I do not know what to believe, They are moving left to right not only three days or more out but within the twenty-four hour period. At this time. I feel all we can do is sit back and wait till Ivan stops bouncing around.

[LAwxrgal]

Guys and gals, Ivan is going to do what he wants, pure and simple. We just have to watch.

[Stormsfury]

Just to throw in something for entertainment purposes only ...

ETAxx ... stalls Ivan in the GOM after Day 4 into Day 7 ...

SF

[x-y-no]

WHERE Y'AT, NASH? WE NEED YOU AND YOUR MAGIC MARKERS!

That just reminded me ... there was a TV met down here in Miami (can't remember his name) in the late '60s who used to do his forecast map in magic marker on glass - writing everything backwards so it was readable to the TV audience ...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Hey MobileBay....where's your link. Mine haven't updated yet.

[mobilebay]

Note- only one model takes Ivan west of 90W. That is the Canandian.they are shifting further and further west though.

[crabbyhermit]

Oh yeah, now i remember that about his wife. I'd forgotten.

Still, WWL might coax him in front of the cameras if a cat 5 appears headed this way.

Actually, I'm now officially impressed with the younger WWL people, like John Gumm and the rather dishy David Bernard. (I know commenting on the sex appeal of weatherfolk is prob not appropro, but so what).

And of course my man Bob Breck on FOX8.

[therealashe]

Cantore will be in Destin this evening. They will all be moving to the north Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

Well that could be a good sign for Destin...

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 121657
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1257 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT)...TONIGHT THE SHEAR AXIS OVER
NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THAT SHOULD BE THE
CASE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY ASSUMING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE STORM
DOES NOT RAPIDLY EXPAND. TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE WEATHER GOING DOWN
HILL AS OUTER BANDS BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LIFT OUT OUT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
85W. ONE WORRISOME FEATURE IS THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE STORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LAST THING WE WANT IS FOR
IVAN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING. THE HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE STORM OUT AND NOT TIL
IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN GULF DOES IVAN BEGIN TO FEEL THIS TROUGH.

THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF
IVAN. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEVIATES EVEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR
RIGHT IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...BEGINNING OF EXTENDED IS DICTATED BY MOVEMENT
OF IVAN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IVAN PULLS NORTHWARD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL WRAP
AROUND IVANS CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTH SIDE...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW
DECREASE IN POPS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF HANGS BACK INTO THE GULF AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE DEEP BUT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY...SO ACTIVITY WILL TREND INLAND FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL AS WITH MORE SUNSHINE.


&&

.MARINE...I EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT IS REALLY NOT A BIG CHANGE FROM
WHAT WE HAVE SO EXPECT JUST A LITTLE TWEAKING HERE AND THERE BASED
ON THE TCM GRIDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A HURRICANE PASSING 150 MILES WEST I DONT THINK
ANYONE WILL BE BURNING. BUT JUST IN CASE YOU ARE IT WILL BE WET
AND WINDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 075/090 076/084 2469
FMY 074/090 075/084 2469
GIF 074/090 074/084 2469
SRQ 074/090 076/083 2469
BKV 073/090 074/085 2449

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DS/FA



This is why the west coast is watching this very closely

[Ivanova]

Seems to me the port at New Orleans
would be a critical port of entry for
freight moved via the Mississippi River...
how much freight is moved via the port
at New Orleans ?

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IVAN 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.7 81.1 290./ 7.0
6 19.3 81.9 304./ 9.7
12 19.8 82.8 300./ 9.9
18 20.4 83.5 311./ 8.3
24 21.1 84.1 319./ 9.2
30 21.8 84.8 317./ 9.9
36 22.6 85.5 317./ 9.6
42 23.1 85.8 327./ 6.8
48 24.0 86.2 339./ 8.6
54 24.9 86.5 341./ 9.5
60 25.8 86.7 346./ 9.1
66 26.7 86.9 345./10.1
72 27.8 87.2 346./10.5
78 28.7 87.1 6./ 9.1
84 29.7 86.9 10./10.0
90 30.5 87.0 355./ 7.8
96 31.4 86.8 11./10.0
102 32.4 86.7 6./10.0
108 33.2 86.5 13./ 7.3
114 33.7 86.2 32./ 5.8
120 34.2 85.7 48./ 6.7
126 34.7 84.8 60./ 8.

Grafic below:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

The less colored red line is the GFDL.

[B-Bear]

Which would part New Orleans on the E side of the storm. Not good.

Actually, I think the worst case scenario for New Orleans is to be just on the west side of the storm. I believe this is what the "doomsday" scenario is predicated upon. Water would pile up into Lake Ponchatrain, potentially causing levees to fail and putting the city under 20 to 30 feet of water.

[Opal storm]

Cantore will be in Destin this evening. They will all be moving to the north Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

Well that could be a good sign for Destin...

Yeah,considering the fact that Cantore is always in the wrong place.

[Ixolib]

WHERE Y'AT, NASH? WE NEED YOU AND YOUR MAGIC MARKERS!

Chanting:
BRING BACK NASH ----- BRING BACK NASH ----- BRING BACK NASH

[Sean in New Orleans]

Nash was ALWAYS right and he NEVER saw a computer program---he's probably sitting back and laughing at the younger, egotistical mets of today who stare at computer screens all day and watch computer programs. There's much more to hurricanes than a computer model. They could throw them out the window with this system (and today's mets would be as lost as you could imagine without them). I wish we had some old time forecasters around, still, for this system. We need their wisdom on nature.

[cloud_galaxy]

Cat 3 might do it. A Cat 4 would.

Getting more and more nervous about this. At thtis point, if they called a NOLA landfall (or anything 100 miles either side), it would be a matter of just getting out alive. Forget boarding up...the trouble will be getting out of town at all.

I am wondering about the resiliency of refineries, pipelines etc. in this area. Wouldn't there be considerable pollution problems during the storm and especially afterwards?

[Stormsfury]

Just a note: 12z NOGAPS I'm getting is still Saturday's run ...

[LSU2001]

Anyone remember the silver iodide crystals i think they dumped in Camile. to "Seed the Storm" I think it was supposed to make the storm rain itself out. Worked great too but over west virginia

[Sean in New Orleans]

Bob Breck, and the crew at Channel 4 are pretty good exceptions to many who are glueing themselves to models. Bob will be a good one to watch when Ivan is in the gulf---only problem with Bob is his ego is 6'11" and his actual height is 5'0"!!