Ivan Advisories

[therealashe]

I was sort of hoping he'd show up here in Tally. I'm not convinced totally we're out of the woods. Until Ivan is in the Gulf.. I think he's just playing everyone...

[mobilebay]

Every model is now between New Orleans and FT. walton. except for the GFS (Panama City), and Canadian( central La.).

[dhweather]

Both TWC and MSNBC still really want the Florida peninsula in the cone.

The NHC probabilites chart goes as far west as New Iberia LA. The NHC cone coveres the mouth of the Mississippi.

These self serving specialists have narrowed that down and stayed East on their own. Irresponsible journalism.

If Ivan hits NOLA, they will point fingers at the NHC, even though they opted to leave NOLA out of "thier" cones for now. AARRRGGGHHH!!!!!!

[roostercogburn]

200 miles? Rainband that is great news. I am worrying less and less as the hours pass.

[southerngale]

Thanks for the explanation Eric.

[Ixolib]

I wonder if the "New City" in Nostradamus X-49
could be New Orleans

That is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS.... Go back and read the Nostradamus passage you are referring to.... At the beginning, you will clearly see the following "EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY - USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR"

Now THAT brought a smile to my face - Thanks!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

And WNW he continues. This boy's just not playing by the rules!

[Brent]

WITH A HURRICANE PASSING 150 MILES WEST I DONT THINK
ANYONE WILL BE BURNING. BUT JUST IN CASE YOU ARE IT WILL BE WET
AND WINDY.

[Stormsfury]

No help from the CMC ensemble suite ... spread from TX to Eastern Panhandle of Florida ... and varying strengths ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/CMC.html

[Wnghs2007]

The Ukmet has really lost its mind. Wierdest path I have ever seen.

[LAwxrgal]

A New Orleans hit would be disastrous on all fronts. But nobody is in the clear yet. We just have to keep watching. Canes like Ivan don't play by our forecast rules -- they make their own.

Besides, Cantore was in too right of a place for Charley, and was in the right place for Frances. Maybe the curse is over?

[Sean in New Orleans]

The estimates by local officials if New Orleans were to get hit by a category 5 hurricane are between 45,000 and 50,000 dead.

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 41a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004



...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan lashes Grand Cayman...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the rest of Cuba. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
this extremely dangerous hurricane.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 19.2 north...longitude 82.1 west or about 60 miles...
95 km...west of Grand Cayman.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph ...17 km/hr...
and a turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours. On this track...the center of the hurricane is expected to
pass near or over the western end of Cuba Monday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Ivan a strong category four on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during
the next 24 hours and Ivan could regain category five intensity.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb...27.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected
in portions of the Cayman Islands...depending on the exact track of
Ivan. Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally
higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Cuba. Reports from ham radio operators and
the Cayman meteorological service indicate that power is out
throughout the island...numerous buildings have lost their
roofs...water up to 2 feet deep covers the Airport runway...and
water as high as 5 feet is flowing through many homes.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.2 N... 82.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 922 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[sea oat]

Just to throw in something for entertainment purposes only ...

ETAxx ... stalls Ivan in the GOM after Day 4 into Day 7 ...

SF

SF we are all on pin and needles right now and rightly so! care to give us your take on ivan? i've missed your input lately. figured you've been real busy or i'm just chceking the board at the wrong time. i really find your input very informative as i do mwatkins.

[caneman]

Both TWC and MSNBC still really want the Florida peninsula in the cone.

The NHC probabilites chart goes as far west as New Iberia LA. The NHC cone coveres the mouth of the Mississippi.

These self serving specialists have narrowed that down and stayed East on their own. Irresponsible journalism.

If Ivan hits NOLA, they will point fingers at the NHC, even though they opted to leave NOLA out of "thier" cones for now. AARRRGGGHHH!!!!!!

[quote="dhweather"]Both TWC and MSNBC still really want the Florida peninsula in the cone.


This has to be the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I was sort of hoping he'd show up here in Tally. I'm not convinced totally we're out of the woods. Until Ivan is in the Gulf.. I think he's just playing everyone...

I not convinced you're totally out of the woods yet either! As a matter of fact, you're deep in the woods.

[QueenBee]

Both the Weather Channel and MsNBC both stated that Ivan will be picked up by a powerful coldfront on Tuesday. Isn't he to far south for this? I mean isn't he still going wnw.

[Ixolib]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 41a

...Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
this extremely dangerous hurricane.

Forecaster Stewart

There they go again with that "E-GOM" statement.....

[sea oat]

And WNW he continues. This boy's just not playing by the rules!

maybe he should have been named ivana! j/K ;P

[Rainband]

I guess some people can find humor in this situation. I however cannot. I guess being this area has been under the gun so much thats why we are a tad worried. The fact is until it's past me and this area I will continue to monitor it and pass along information. I hope the trends continues. The fact is anywhere this affects will be really bad. Stay safe everyone