Ivan Advisories

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 41a

...Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
this extremely dangerous hurricane.

Forecaster Stewart

There they go again with that "E-GOM" statement.....

Yeah, at this point, they shouldn't be leaving out Western GoM.

[cycloneye]

Moving a tad faster too.

[southerngale]

They seem very confident Ixolib. Maybe they think the westward model trends are just temporary.

[Windsong]

MSNBC just said landfall is expected along the west coast or the panhandle. Think the changes alluded to by Tampa NWS are already manifesting?

[Fodie77]

Moving a tad faster too.

Was it 8 or 9mph last advisory?

[caneman]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 41a

...Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
this extremely dangerous hurricane.

Forecaster Stewart

There they go again with that "E-GOM" statement.....

Probably has more to do with the distance. They didn't start mentioning E GOM until it was past JAmaica.

[Travelgirl]

I just said the same thing, why do they keep saying east gulf. I don't understand.

[cycloneye]

It was 9 mph at 11 AM.

[bfez1]

The estimates by local officials if New Orleans were to get hit by a category 5 hurricane are between 45,000 and 50,000 dead.

With a cat 5 storm, New Orleans would become an aquarium

[Fodie77]

It was 9 mph at 11 AM.

Thanks.

[Stormsfury]

Just to throw in something for entertainment purposes only ...

ETAxx ... stalls Ivan in the GOM after Day 4 into Day 7 ...

SF

SF we are all on pin and needles right now and rightly so! care to give us your take on ivan? i've missed your input lately. figured you've been real busy or i'm just chceking the board at the wrong time. i really find your input very informative as i do mwatkins.

I'm working it today, and hope to have some very long and detailed information sometime this afternoon ... since 1) I'm off from work, and 2) I'm WELL rested for a chance ...

Reviewing all the model guidance and ensemble members right now ...

Right now, I basically think the 12z CMC run is garbage with that far of a west depiction ...

Did you or anyone notice something on the 12z run? The CMC run takes the current upper low feature in the Central Atlantic and develops what appears to be a subtropical/tropical cyclone, in which turn seems to hold the high in the NE still nosed down as far as the Mid-Atlantic, meanstwhile, the feature develops somewhere around 75ºW ... I SERIOUSLY question that depiction, since on WV imagery, it's very apparent that the ULL is already moving almost due north ...

The 12z NOGAPS I still haven't seen yet (not updated on my links to NOGAPS ... although, I guess I should check out the NOGAPS site itself .. I am registered and shouldn't wait, although I'm waiting on the 12z ECMWF run) ...

SF

[lilbump3000]

Come on people this system is still moving to the WNW. At the way its going it may past 20N and 85W. Now the NHC might be seeing something we not but they said the NW turn should happen in 12-24 hours. They said that at 11 this morning, now its 2 now the time has closed in to 9-21 hours we should see that turn. IF it occurs like they thing it will.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The trough will put the EGOM in jeopardy first.

[Fodie77]

The trough will put the EGOM in jeopardy first.

How strong is that trough right now? Is it strong enough to impact Ivan's steering?

[Ixolib]

They seem very confident Ixolib. Maybe they think the westward model trends are just temporary.

I'm open to that possibility. But, considering the persistent westward updates to their tracks, I just believe the advice should be directed at everyone in a state that boarders anywhere on the GOM.

[dhweather]

Historically, LA/MS/AL are "North Central GOM"
so I don't agree with "Eastern GOM" either.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep,

It doesn't take much. See Eric's post on misunderstandings. The NHC seems to proving that they don't just spit out model runs as forecasts. They know that the trough will make a path for Ivan, they think it will happen in 12-24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 121657
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1257 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT)...TONIGHT THE SHEAR AXIS OVER
NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THAT SHOULD BE THE
CASE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY ASSUMING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE STORM
DOES NOT RAPIDLY EXPAND. TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE WEATHER GOING DOWN
HILL AS OUTER BANDS BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LIFT OUT OUT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
85W. ONE WORRISOME FEATURE IS THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE STORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LAST THING WE WANT IS FOR
IVAN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING. THE HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE STORM OUT AND NOT TIL
IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN GULF DOES IVAN BEGIN TO FEEL THIS TROUGH.

THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF
IVAN. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEVIATES EVEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR
RIGHT IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...BEGINNING OF EXTENDED IS DICTATED BY MOVEMENT
OF IVAN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IVAN PULLS NORTHWARD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL WRAP
AROUND IVANS CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTH SIDE...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW
DECREASE IN POPS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF HANGS BACK INTO THE GULF AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE DEEP BUT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY...SO ACTIVITY WILL TREND INLAND FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL AS WITH MORE SUNSHINE.


&&

.MARINE...I EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT IS REALLY NOT A BIG CHANGE FROM
WHAT WE HAVE SO EXPECT JUST A LITTLE TWEAKING HERE AND THERE BASED
ON THE TCM GRIDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A HURRICANE PASSING 150 MILES WEST I DONT THINK
ANYONE WILL BE BURNING. BUT JUST IN CASE YOU ARE IT WILL BE WET
AND WINDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 075/090 076/084 2469
FMY 074/090 075/084 2469
GIF 074/090 074/084 2469
SRQ 074/090 076/083 2469
BKV 073/090 074/085 2449

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DS/FA



This is why the west coast is watching this very closely

this is support for what mortisfla and i posted this morning. new orleans to naples is in play regardless of what TWC says or any local met from anywhere. read the 11 am disco folks..they are putting out a 5 day track but the confidence level is nil.

[dhweather]

But Marc Morial SWORE the pumps would take care of the city.

[Fodie77]

They seem very confident Ixolib. Maybe they think the westward model trends are just temporary.

I'm open to that possibility. But, considering the persistent westward updates to their tracks, I just believe the advice should be directed at everyone in a state that boarders anywhere on the GOM.

Absolutely, it's better to be safe than sorry. If any model is taking Ivan into the W. GOM (which many obviously are) than the NHC needs to warn everyone in that region.