Ivan Advisories

[Possum Trot]

I was just noticing tht those folks returning to the Keys are getting there just time to see the outer cloud bands arrive.

[lilbump3000]

As far as im concerned this system can be in the south gulf of mexico and the models will still point to flordia and the NHC will go along with it.

[das8929]

Cancun isnt getting hit!

[bwstg]

Ivan's path needs to shift N-NW soon
if he's going to make it through the
gates of Ishtar !

and entering the hell of babylon...

[Anonymous]

Noting how Ivan tends to bomb after ERC's, he may get at or below 905, surpassing Camille and Mitch.

[dhweather]

Wow, they are noticing the Westward trend of Ivan too? GEE!

[PurdueWx80]

Landfall now near LA/MS border....a la Camille.

[HenkL]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091212!!!step/

Looks more west to me than in the 00Z run.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Cancun isnt getting hit!

I agree...I don't see a landfall there, but, it may come dangerously close. They are in for some serious squalls, though, this evening if the system doesn't turn very soon.

[lilbump3000]

What a shame every model has shifted to the west today. Even the king GFS has a central to western panhandle landfall.

[freeport_texas2005]

das why r u so sure about this...uf ur wrong ur going to be just like the nhc...not saying that u r but u r pretty gung ho on this thing

[Anonymous]

Nice, now I'll see some outflow.

[Frank P]

Storm IVAN: Observed By AF #866
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 131KT (150.65mph) In NW Quadrant At 1428Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, September 12, 2004 13:06:00
Position of the center: 19° 04' N 82° 05' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2391m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 080KT (92MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 041nm (47.15miles) From Center At Bearing 136°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 114KT (131.1mph) From 230°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 025nm (28.749999999999996miles) From Center At Bearing 137°
Minimum pressure: 920mb (27.17in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being C15-30
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Bye Ivan.........

[mobilebay]

Imagine that. That is a real shocker.(that it shifted west)

[Anonymous]

It seems Ivan only wants to clip landmasses and not hit them (Except Grenada). First Jamaica, then Grand Cayman, now he threatens to clip the Yucatan.

[ACM]

Thank you for posting this. This shows no one is 'in the clear' right now & until it's N of us I don't know why people are saying so.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Imagine that. That is a real shocker.(that it shifted west)

good luck to ya there....mobile!

[canegrl04]

After what he did yesterday,I believe he will get lower than Camille in pressure. Watch Ivan bulk up to a 180mph cane the next 12 hours

[DrCarlson]

fools news for fools deeds.....
under a current evacuation and hurricane watch does not mean please come back the keys..... or OK I guess you can take your shutters down...
We shuddered, we evacuated, we moved the boats .....
we will wait until the storm is north of the keys and the NHC and Monroe County EOC has given offical notice to return and remove shutters
Compliancy or even contempt of the warnings is a great mechanism for disaster. It won't be us.. and hopefully not one of our "keysy" neighbors.....
best safe than sorry, and it can't be more than another day or so...
DrCarlson