Ivan Advisories

[Air Force Met]

i am surprised the nhc track is so far east

They have constantly been to far to the right on this storm...except for about a day in the central car. Every other time they have been to far to the right. The 15z position is already too far to the right of the 18z. They need to look at that and shift it left of what they are thinking...then they will be on track.

[AL Chili Pepper]

[quote="]Of course...the continued westward shift of the guidance may very well continue though...do you see a reason to believe the turn in the models now...given that they have been too fast to turn the hurricane at every opportunuty before now?

NW[/quote]

Looks like the percentage on my original choice of Lafayette, LA (man that seems like years ago now) are growing by the hour.

[dhweather]

I'm trying to help my Dad see this feature, he needs to revisit his eye doctor. Thanks all!

[bahamaswx]

Yes alicia, it is.

[Ivanova]

Wow, another one. This might be good though. Let's go ahead and get them all pointed at New Orleans more than 72 hours out, because we know it won't verify!

Another what ?

[PurdueWx80]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS LED
TO MORE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS
VERY WET SCENARIO FOR MONDAY...I FEEL IT WENT TOO FAR ON THE DRY
SIDE THIS TIME...THUS KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST (40% SOUTHEAST...TRENDING TO 20 NORTHWEST).

IVAN IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT AS OF 12Z THAN IT WAS AT 6Z. SPREAD IS NOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN BILOXI MS AND APALACHEE BAY FL. OFFICIAL TRACK IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS A
TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK HAS BEEN EVIDENT. OUR MAIN
CONCERN IT THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES WHICH I FEE IT WILL. A
LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN FL OR EVEN AL WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE IMPACT TO CENTRAL AL. THE KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
THIS TRACK IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN. LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE A BIT CONCERNING IN THAT
THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ALREADY BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COULD BE STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IF THIS IS INDEED
THE CASE...A LANDFALL MUCH FURTHER WEST WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WHICH LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHEREVER ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IVAN WINDS UP...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL AL LATE WED AND THURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND AROUND 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD
ENCOMPASS AN AREA FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS...TO TALLAHASSEE.

Check out this loop to see the trough no longer digging to the south...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=multiple&itype=wv[/url]

[wxwatcher2]

When you hear WWL 870 out of New Orleans go on 24/7 storm coverage, you know it's serious.
Until then, just watch and wait with the rest of the gulf coast.

[das8929]

OMG a west lying model has a track over New Orleans!! Run for your lives!!!!!!11111

[cycloneye]

Si yo estuviera el el gobierno alla en Mexico le diria a Fox que ponga un aviso de tormenta tropical porque aunque el ojo no pase el systema es grande y los vientos de tormenta se extienden a 175 millas del ojo.

If I were in the goverment I would issue a tropical storm warning.

[Innotech]

Canadian model sucks.

[BayouVenteux]

Wow, another one. This might be good though. Let's go ahead and get them all pointed at New Orleans more than 72 hours out, because we know it won't verify!

I tend to agree with you NLU, I can't help but think the impulse presently headed SEward over LA and into the Gulf will be the catalyst in 12 to 24 hours to get the northward component increasing. A lot will depend on how long the trough can maintain amplitude before moving off to the NE. The Mobile AFD this morning didn't seem to have a high degree of confidence that it would dig in long, but it's really a matter of wait and see.

The water vapor image:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

The ridging over Ivan's N is not Schwarzneggian by any stretch, but it's hung in admirably to this point.

FWIW, I'm hanging with my call of landfall W of 85 and E of the FL/AL state line. Appalachicola to Destin/FWB.

[Cape Verde]

I like this link. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

<P>Whoa! That's awesome. I had to shut down my other loops in order to get that fully loaded, but it was worth it

[PurdueWx80]

Canadian model sucks.

Guess that's why it's been the only correct model so far.

[Brent]

That's my NWS office.

Ugh...

[Cuzam]

Si yo estuviera el el gobierno alla en Mexico le diria a Fox que ponga un aviso de tormenta tropical porque aunque el ojo no pase el systema es grande y los vientos de tormenta se extienden a 175 millas del ojo.

If I were in the goverment I would issue a tropical storm warning.

Totalmente de acuerdo!!!! I certainly agree on your quote, this should come from the Federal Government. I was just listening to the local radio and they will be broadcasting "the latest on Hurricane Ivan" at 5:00 pm local time. I'll keep you posted!

[Ixolib]

MobileBay's like Jim Cantore. Would make a very good storm chaser.

I wonder if they have a line going in the casinos.

They may soon have a line coming OUT!!

[Chilly_Water]

They were prepared days ago. When I spoke to my friend who lives there five days ago. She said that most everything was boarded up to the point where my friend couldn't find ply wood anywhere on the island and she couldn't board up her own house. My friends also tried to get off the island but all flights were booked. They were prepared and she said that the Caymanians knew what hurricanes could do and prepared for it. We got word from her early this morning via cell phone through her brother in Texas that her roof was most likely damaged and that white caps could be seen in the streets. She was holed up in a closet last we heard. Her brother-in-law who lives on the second story of a condo building said that the first floor was flooded. But just to reiterate, the my friend and her family down there knew to be prepared days ago as well as most Caymanians.

[Anonymous]

That is very concerning indeed, as NO may be in real danger.

[PTrackerLA]

AL chili pepper, I hope you are wrong, very wrong! But the models keep trending west and you can't ignore the facts that we're pretty much under the gun again when 2 days ago I thought we had nothing to worry about with Ivan.

[Lockhart]

People sure are touchy. This thing could go just about anywhere, so discussion of possibilities is perfectly reasonable. That's why this is a forum and not a place for press releases only.