WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HURRICANE IVAN OR REMNANTS COME INTO THE
FORECAST. MODELS ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING AT LEAST ONTO A SOLUTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LOOKING AT THE GFS...ECMWF
AND UKMET. CANADIAN TRACKING FATHER WEST INTO LA. LATEST TRACK AND
SPEED AS OF 11 AM TCPAT4 HAS TRACK NEAR TLH AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK
AND SPEED BUT WENT AHEAD AND PUT WINDY INTO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS MOST FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SYSTEM
CLOSELY AS LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK AND WINDS WOULD MAKE FOR BIG
CONCERNS FOR FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WET SOILS FROM
FRANCES. WILL SEND SPS AND ESF TO CONTINUE TO RAISE AWARENESS ON
MONITORING TRACK NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Ivan Advisories
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Cape Verde
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BensonTCwatcher
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cycloneye
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Muy bien me interesa lo que digan a las 5.
Yes I would be interested to know what will they say at 5 PM.
Yes I would be interested to know what will they say at 5 PM.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Here is the latest. Sorry for not posting the link; but the site is overwhelmed with requests from relatives etc. (the hospital bit isn't true btw, others have said its fine).
By Gretchen Allen
Associated Press Correspondent
HOUSTON (AP) – Reports out of Grand Cayman, which has been furiously pummeled by category 4 Hurricane Ivan overnight and throughout Sunday morning, via internet and telephone, reveal a picture of grim devastation.
So far, Ivan has caused the deaths of some 56 people in the Caribbean on its deadly rampage from the Lesser Antilles, across Grenada, on to Jamaica and now Cayman.
Yesterday the Governor of the Cayman Islands, Mr. Bruce Dinwiddy, declared a State of Emergency.
At 2 p.m. Sunday, the Weather Channel reported that the island had been lashed by winds in excess of 200 mph.
Ivan was 60 miles west of Grand Cayman, traveling to the west at 10 mph, according to a National Hurricane Center Advisory.
There are unconfirmed reports that part of the capital, George Town, is “gone”, that roofs are blowing around in the streets of George Town, and that the hospital has been badly damaged, or is possibly also “gone”.
Two British ships are reported to be 250 miles behind Ivan, waiting to come into port to come to Cayman’s aid. The Cayman Islands are a British Overseas Territory (colony).
Vehicles in flood-prone areas have are said to have “just disappeared”.
There is two feet of water at Owen Roberts International Airport.
Hurricane shelters on island are full to capacity.
An estimated 80 percent of the roof of Queensgate House, a waterfront commercial office building on the south side of the capital overlooking the harbour, has been blown off.
“It’s as bad as it can possibly get,” Justin Uzzell, 35, told the Associated Press by telephone about noon Houston time on Sunday, also noon Cayman time (Houston is on Daylight Savings Time, Cayman is not) from his fifth-floor refuge in the Citrus Grove Building downtown. “It’s a horizontal blizzard,” he described, saying he could see no further than the parking lot of the adjacent building. “The air is just foam. It’s a white wall. We’re being buffeted badly”.
At the Marriott Resort on Cayman’s famed Seven Mile Beach, its prime tourism product, windows were blown out of the 300+ room facility, and the cars in the parking lot had water up to their rooftops. Children of guests were said to be “going bonkers” from being “cooped up”.
“A catastrophe”, was how one landlord described the residential area of Crewe Road in George Town.
The island has been without electricity since Saturday evening and phone service is often impossible. Cell phone batteries are wearing down or are spent.
Canal-front developments, such as Governor’s Harbour and Snug Harbour, are flooded.
The Hyatt Britannia Resort’s canal which flows into the North Sound has overflowed due to the storm surge, and the Britannia Villas are flooded inside, as is the golf course. Cars there are under water.
At 12:50 p.m. “winds are fiercer than ever”, reported one Cayman resident on the website stormcarib.com, which featured many posting from people seeking information on their loved ones.
Here in Houston, some 125 evacuees who arrived from Grand Cayman Friday afternoon on a special charter flight hired by Cayman-based Dart Management Ltd. to bring its employee resources to safety, were worried and frustrated at not being able to get through by cell phone, hearing “all circuits are currently busy”. They continue to try to reach friends and relatives in their storm-tossed country.
Although the eye of the storm is now 60 miles southwest of the coast of Grand Cayman, Ivan’s hurricane-force winds (155 mph, with gusts to 190 mph) extend out 90 miles from the storm’s center, and it is presently moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 120 miles. That means Grand Cayman is in for hours more of continued bashing.
The three Cayman Islands – Cayman Brac, Little Cayman, and Grand Cayman, 90 miles to the southeast of the Sister Islands – are home to about 45,000 people with well over 90 percent of them residing in Grand Cayman.
Flood waters were threatening the integrity of the Allista Towers Building in George Town.
There were unconfirmed reports that the roof had blown off the Kirk Servistar Home Center on Eastern Avenue.
Cars in the area of Cayman’s airport are said to have “floated off down the road”.
There were reports of 135-mile-an-hour winds out of the northeast over the last two hours.
Winds were so strong around noon on Saturday that “trees were bending down to the ground” along the West Bay Road, the island’s main road and tourist strip which runs parallel to Seven Mile Beach.
There is no radio service, leaving residents in the dark as to when and where the storm is going.
At midday people who sought shelter in the Walkers Building in the center of town were said to be okay.
Communiques from the Citrus Grove Building also said people seeking shelter there were safe.
The Huntlaw Building in the same area had its roof torn off around 8 a.m.
If Hurricane Ivan, which is reported to be developing a concentric (second) eye wall, winds increase by just one mile an hour, it will again be classed as a category 5 storm.
It is kicking up waves 15 – 25 feet, or two stories high. Cayman is experiencing 8 – 12-inches of rain.
According to the Weather Channel, Hurricane Ivan is the sixth strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history.
It is taking a track similar to that of Hurricanes Charley and Gilbert, which visited Cayman in 1988, and has been called the “son of Gilbert”.
At noon Cayman time, Ivan’s coordinates were 19 N., 81.5 W., with wind gusts to 190mph.
“The wind is howling and there are no leaves left on any of the trees,” Perry Garrison told his wife, Shruty, in Houston by phone from Cayman.
By Gretchen Allen
Associated Press Correspondent
HOUSTON (AP) – Reports out of Grand Cayman, which has been furiously pummeled by category 4 Hurricane Ivan overnight and throughout Sunday morning, via internet and telephone, reveal a picture of grim devastation.
So far, Ivan has caused the deaths of some 56 people in the Caribbean on its deadly rampage from the Lesser Antilles, across Grenada, on to Jamaica and now Cayman.
Yesterday the Governor of the Cayman Islands, Mr. Bruce Dinwiddy, declared a State of Emergency.
At 2 p.m. Sunday, the Weather Channel reported that the island had been lashed by winds in excess of 200 mph.
Ivan was 60 miles west of Grand Cayman, traveling to the west at 10 mph, according to a National Hurricane Center Advisory.
There are unconfirmed reports that part of the capital, George Town, is “gone”, that roofs are blowing around in the streets of George Town, and that the hospital has been badly damaged, or is possibly also “gone”.
Two British ships are reported to be 250 miles behind Ivan, waiting to come into port to come to Cayman’s aid. The Cayman Islands are a British Overseas Territory (colony).
Vehicles in flood-prone areas have are said to have “just disappeared”.
There is two feet of water at Owen Roberts International Airport.
Hurricane shelters on island are full to capacity.
An estimated 80 percent of the roof of Queensgate House, a waterfront commercial office building on the south side of the capital overlooking the harbour, has been blown off.
“It’s as bad as it can possibly get,” Justin Uzzell, 35, told the Associated Press by telephone about noon Houston time on Sunday, also noon Cayman time (Houston is on Daylight Savings Time, Cayman is not) from his fifth-floor refuge in the Citrus Grove Building downtown. “It’s a horizontal blizzard,” he described, saying he could see no further than the parking lot of the adjacent building. “The air is just foam. It’s a white wall. We’re being buffeted badly”.
At the Marriott Resort on Cayman’s famed Seven Mile Beach, its prime tourism product, windows were blown out of the 300+ room facility, and the cars in the parking lot had water up to their rooftops. Children of guests were said to be “going bonkers” from being “cooped up”.
“A catastrophe”, was how one landlord described the residential area of Crewe Road in George Town.
The island has been without electricity since Saturday evening and phone service is often impossible. Cell phone batteries are wearing down or are spent.
Canal-front developments, such as Governor’s Harbour and Snug Harbour, are flooded.
The Hyatt Britannia Resort’s canal which flows into the North Sound has overflowed due to the storm surge, and the Britannia Villas are flooded inside, as is the golf course. Cars there are under water.
At 12:50 p.m. “winds are fiercer than ever”, reported one Cayman resident on the website stormcarib.com, which featured many posting from people seeking information on their loved ones.
Here in Houston, some 125 evacuees who arrived from Grand Cayman Friday afternoon on a special charter flight hired by Cayman-based Dart Management Ltd. to bring its employee resources to safety, were worried and frustrated at not being able to get through by cell phone, hearing “all circuits are currently busy”. They continue to try to reach friends and relatives in their storm-tossed country.
Although the eye of the storm is now 60 miles southwest of the coast of Grand Cayman, Ivan’s hurricane-force winds (155 mph, with gusts to 190 mph) extend out 90 miles from the storm’s center, and it is presently moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 120 miles. That means Grand Cayman is in for hours more of continued bashing.
The three Cayman Islands – Cayman Brac, Little Cayman, and Grand Cayman, 90 miles to the southeast of the Sister Islands – are home to about 45,000 people with well over 90 percent of them residing in Grand Cayman.
Flood waters were threatening the integrity of the Allista Towers Building in George Town.
There were unconfirmed reports that the roof had blown off the Kirk Servistar Home Center on Eastern Avenue.
Cars in the area of Cayman’s airport are said to have “floated off down the road”.
There were reports of 135-mile-an-hour winds out of the northeast over the last two hours.
Winds were so strong around noon on Saturday that “trees were bending down to the ground” along the West Bay Road, the island’s main road and tourist strip which runs parallel to Seven Mile Beach.
There is no radio service, leaving residents in the dark as to when and where the storm is going.
At midday people who sought shelter in the Walkers Building in the center of town were said to be okay.
Communiques from the Citrus Grove Building also said people seeking shelter there were safe.
The Huntlaw Building in the same area had its roof torn off around 8 a.m.
If Hurricane Ivan, which is reported to be developing a concentric (second) eye wall, winds increase by just one mile an hour, it will again be classed as a category 5 storm.
It is kicking up waves 15 – 25 feet, or two stories high. Cayman is experiencing 8 – 12-inches of rain.
According to the Weather Channel, Hurricane Ivan is the sixth strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history.
It is taking a track similar to that of Hurricanes Charley and Gilbert, which visited Cayman in 1988, and has been called the “son of Gilbert”.
At noon Cayman time, Ivan’s coordinates were 19 N., 81.5 W., with wind gusts to 190mph.
“The wind is howling and there are no leaves left on any of the trees,” Perry Garrison told his wife, Shruty, in Houston by phone from Cayman.
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I agree as well. The NHC has done a great job recently dealing with some particularly difficult hurricanes. Anyone who wasn't prepared for the last hurricanes was unprepared solely by their own fault. To suggest the NHC is doing a bad job (or doesn't know what it's doing) because of guessing Ivan would go North sooner than it has is silly. Who has been harmed by their *slightly* North guesses? No one.
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lilbump3000
- Category 4
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- Age: 38
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Ivan slowing down?
Looks to me like the last three frames are showing a good bit of a slow down.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Just wondering if what I see is real, so give me some opinions...
If this keeps up for another 5-6 frames, we could actually see a turn putting it closer to Cuba after all... but that is a big if.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Just wondering if what I see is real, so give me some opinions...
If this keeps up for another 5-6 frames, we could actually see a turn putting it closer to Cuba after all... but that is a big if.
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Brent
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Buck wrote:I'm in Atlanta.
This looks like it might actually be worse than what Opal did up here.
Don't say that.
I was in East Alabama(not far from where I live now) when the eye passed just 40 miles west. Had 90 mph gusts with 70 mph sustained winds for several hours. It was awful. My dad says we are leaving if we ever have a scenario like that again. I'm starting to worry this may be it.
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#neversummer
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Sean in New Orleans
- Category 5
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Yucatan Peninsula
If Ivan does continue on this path and makes a Yucatan landfall, this could be a good thing...it could weaken the system, somewhat, depending on how long it may be over land. As many locals in New Orleans know---Cancun is our hideout and there are many New Orleanians there vacationing as there always are---I hope Cancun is ready for this thing...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Chilly_Water
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 191
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:59 pm
- Location: Charleston, SC
E-mail from my Caymanian friend's brother in Texas recieved 11:15amEDT:
Good morning,
Well, things are deteriorating in Cayman as the worst of the storm passes very close to Cayman. With it moving as slowly as it is, the strong winds and heavy rains are taking a toll on the island. In C's words, "Ivan is devastating Cayman."
Flooing is occuring as expected - R's car has been lifted on top of another by the water in the car park!!!
The downstairs apartments in R's complex have had waves crash through them, removing all of their furniture.
Waves are expected to reach 30 feet in some areas, specifically the area by the Grand Old House - where C and D had their wedding reception.
Some of the older, weaker houses have been blown away. Neither R nor C are in such buildings - they are in modern, well built strucures.
Very Very sad indeed.
Much of the information that they are receiving comes from Radio Cayman which is now off the air. Telephone communication, even with cellphones, is intermittent. C and R are even having difficulties getting hold of each other.
I received a call moments ago from C and he said that their condo has started to flood from both the front and rear. His spirits were not as high as in previous calls and he mentioned that D was a little down as well. They do have their most precious, sentimental items in plastic bags on the second floor. He had to get off the phone quckly - I am sure D had just handed him a mop!!!
I am expecting a call any minute from him. As soon as he calls I will let you know.
Good morning,
Well, things are deteriorating in Cayman as the worst of the storm passes very close to Cayman. With it moving as slowly as it is, the strong winds and heavy rains are taking a toll on the island. In C's words, "Ivan is devastating Cayman."
Flooing is occuring as expected - R's car has been lifted on top of another by the water in the car park!!!
The downstairs apartments in R's complex have had waves crash through them, removing all of their furniture.
Waves are expected to reach 30 feet in some areas, specifically the area by the Grand Old House - where C and D had their wedding reception.
Some of the older, weaker houses have been blown away. Neither R nor C are in such buildings - they are in modern, well built strucures.
Very Very sad indeed.
Much of the information that they are receiving comes from Radio Cayman which is now off the air. Telephone communication, even with cellphones, is intermittent. C and R are even having difficulties getting hold of each other.
I received a call moments ago from C and he said that their condo has started to flood from both the front and rear. His spirits were not as high as in previous calls and he mentioned that D was a little down as well. They do have their most precious, sentimental items in plastic bags on the second floor. He had to get off the phone quckly - I am sure D had just handed him a mop!!!
I am expecting a call any minute from him. As soon as he calls I will let you know.
Last edited by Chilly_Water on Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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canegrl04 wrote:Wow. Hope the best for you,Brent
Thanks.
I'm well inland, but Opal in 1995 made landfall near Pensacola as a Weak Cat 3 and was still a minimal hurricane when it passed just west of me.
Starting to sound familiar...
The good news is, Opal was moving at 25 mph, this will be moving much slower. Hopefully that means it'll be much weaker.
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#neversummer
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