Ivan Advisories

[canegrl04]

Ivan is most likely to enter the Channel

[Sean in New Orleans]

It may hit the Yucatan, but, if it does it will only clip them, I doubt it will weaken the system after looking at satellite a second time.

[bkhusky2]

Wow, looks like a fun week here in Bama possibly. Opal was the last tropical system to significantly affect the area, I hope this one isn't another Opal, lost alot of trees around the area during that storm.

[kevin]

Yucatan isn't that effective or a weakening landmass.. and it will probably just clip it..

[freeport_texas2005]

yeah but if it dose im gunna laugh cuz u r soooo postive that it isnt...i think it would be funny...but if it dosent...then u knew what u were talking about

[NateFLA]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44329


No offense, and I realize it branches into a new idea, but considering you already have made a Yucatan possiblites thread, did you really need a new one?

[amawea]

Sean,
I agree about the old time forecasting. I think what these models can't handle is that storms of this intensity create their own environment. Yes they are influenced by their surroundings but I also believe thay influence their surroundings just as much. Seems modern day forecasters can't forecast because of this as the old timers did. They depend too much on the models.
amawea

[Anonymous]

das...you are hilarious.

And why will Ivan not make a landfall hit over the Yucatan NE coast? Back it up and don't continue to post nonsense!

[bahamaswx]

Why am I getting that maximum surface winds were estimated at 92 mph? I know that's not right?
I must be using the secret decoder ring wrong.

Probably missed the center.

[Lockhart]

Not nice, BigEZ. Don't get too upset over having some models nail you four days out. Speaking as someone from a city which had a bullseye on it by many models just a few days ago (but now is totally outside the cone), I'd say it just means to be vigilant. As the NHC says, their *average* error that far out is hundreds of miles, so even if they shift their track right to you, that doesn't mean it's coming *right* at you. Talk a breath and try to relax. Maybe tomorrow the news will be better.

[Brent]

Wow, looks like a fun week here in Bama possibly. Opal was the last tropical system to significantly affect the area, I hope this one isn't another Opal, lost alot of trees around the area during that storm.

Exactly. The rain doesn't bother me(even though we don't need any over here).

No damaging wind please.

[Derek Ortt]

Gilbert only clipped the Yucatan, but its pressure rose from 900mb to 950 in just a few hours over the Peninsula

[freeport_texas2005]

its cool daz is a "pro" he knows where it is and isnt going to go beofre the cane dose itself

[chris_fit]

I agree

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44329


No offense, and I realize it branches into a new idea, but considering you already have made a Yucatan possiblites thread, did you really need a new one?

Ask a moderator to combine them, it doesn't matter to me. Didn't mean to offend you.

[rainstorm]

i agree. it seems the nhc is holding onto a nnw track for ivan

[NateFLA]

Ask a moderator to combine them, it doesn't matter to me. Didn't mean to offend you.

No offense taken! Just anticipating as the day is progressing we get closer to the site's peak load and if we cut down on the number of database queries we may be able to alleviate some of the downtime.

[kevin]

Derek, thanks for the correction. I've watched storms maintain themselves across the peninsula, but this is a very organized and complex (fragile) storm.. so you're right. Hopefully it loses a lot of strength if it does make landfall there.

[Innotech]

Canadian model sucks.

Guess that's why it's been the only correct model so far.

I didnt say it was wrong, I said it sucks.

[Lockhart]

I bet one reason they're having a little bit of difficulty recently (despite increased computer power and better models/information availability) is the greatly increased instability inherent to the global climate change. If they were using today's computers and models on the hurricanes of forty years ago, I bet they'd do hugely better.