Ivan Advisories

[FritzPaul]

OMG a west lying model has a track over New Orleans!! Run for your lives!!!!!!11111

das, go join a north-turn thread.

[das8929]

Maybe because its already on a track that will just miss it??? And maybe the fact that it is forecast to turn NW tonight?? I swear some of you people I disagree with...

[NateFLA]

I'm seeing a full five frames of slowdown.

Could be a temporary thing at this point, or an indication of change.

Just gotta watch it as usual...

[Lockhart]

Great link! Thanks.

[kevin]

Two of the images have the same time.#10 and 11

[chris_fit]

last frame is a deadstop to the west. perhaps a slight north jog.

[Anonymous]

This is the same sort of damage that can be expected if Ivan were to hit an area such as the Mississippi gulf coast.

[patsmsg]

Is this not a simple cut and paste exercise? I've cleared the form and pasted the info from first and 3rd posts above.

1st results in 92 mph surface level estimate.
3rd results in no surface level estimate, but 149.5 flight level would indicate a weaker than expected surface level measurement.

[Anonymous]

Gilbert did a little more than clip the Yucatan, it actually went over a nice portion of it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ivanova]

After all.. it's not like New Orleans is being targeted...
Ivan is still only a hurricane... not a terrorist WMD !


*

[chris_fit]

Two of the images have the same time.#10 and 11

Refresh, mine are all different times.

[freeport_texas2005]

yea "forcasted" dosent mean its going to happen and why dont u keep your little wishcaster comments to yourself. For all we know you are just like the rest of us "people I disagree with"

[AJC3]

Why am I getting that maximum surface winds were estimated at 92 mph? I know that's not right?
I must be using the secret decoder ring wrong.

Probably missed the center.

URNT12 KNHC 121439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1439Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
81 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2411 M
D. 080 KT

What it's telling you is that the visual estimation of wind speed due to sea state is 80KT/92MPH. Visual estimation of wind speed due to sea state for a tropical cyclone of this intensity is essentially a throw-away, since it will invariably be woefully less than the actual measured wind speed (although on a few occasions I have seen this over 100KT). IIRC one recent report for Ivan had it at 40-50KT.

[kevin]

das, lets keep it civil. Some of us are people I disagree with (i could name them, but I think I'd get in trouble), but I really do believe based on the trend and current motion that the storm will at least go through the channel. Whether it moves more west or east of my guess is entirely up to the hurricane.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Gilbert did a little more than clip the Yucatan, it actually went over a nice portion of it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I remember that track!! Makes me miss John Hope!

[Cuzam]

Gilbert did a little more than clip the Yucatan, it actually went over a nice portion of it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

(from Cozumel) ...it certainly did a lot of damage around here!!!

[patsmsg]

Thanks.

[das8929]

Ummm hitting the Yucatan Peninsula is different than it going through the Channel.

[canegrl04]

Noticed the cone extends from the western tip of Cuba,to the tip of Yucatan. The guy just said they are still expecting the trough to pick up Ivan and turn him North back to Florida panhandle/Georgia

[Air Force Met]

Gilbert only clipped the Yucatan, but its pressure rose from 900mb to 950 in just a few hours over the Peninsula

Gilbert was also on the backside of an eyewall cycle and starting to weaken when it went inland. System that are intensifying as they make landfall hold their pressure a lot better than storms like Gilbert which are starting to fill on the backside of an EWRC and then move inland.