Central Florida letting guard down

[floodprone]

They pull the FEMA personnel out when they expect them to be in danger's way.

[storm monkey]

FEMA personel are sent "out of harms way" when a storm is approaching and then return after the storm has passed. They were sent home between Charlie and Frances and have now returned to continue the process of recovery for the 2 storms. If they thought we would receive impact from Ivan they would not have returned from the leave.

[SeaBrz_FL]

rsm --- I am sure that CocoaBill meant Central FL as being Orlando and east. Tampa and the central west coast should definitely not let your guard down! Best of luck to you all on a continued north track!

ColdFront77 -- For the safety of their employees, FEMA (and other emergency agencies) usually fly or stage operations in the areas closest to where a disaster may occur without endangering their personnel. They are flying into Orlando? Then I'm dancing in the street! However, (if you're here in The Villages during summer) you are still quite a ways north and west of Orlando Exec Airport so you may want to watch the forecast a little closer.

[debbiet]

Just as an FYI...Currently a FEMA Urban Search & Rescue Team from Virginia (VA-Task Force 2) is stationed in FL (they've been there since just before Frances made landfall) until after Ivan passes by, in case the worst happens and they are needed for search and rescue missions after landfall...I believe there are also one or two additional teams from outside of FL too...so FEMA is definitely taking this seriously...because it sure isn't cheap to keep that many folks deployed for such a long waiting game.

[wxwatcher2]

Why would FEMA personnel being at Orlando Executive Airport mean that they absolutely believe that Ivan isn't headed toward the Orlando vinicity?

Because there is still much much FEMA assistance needed here.

Their asssistance is still needed.

[ColdFront77]

Okay. It seems like some of them would be leaving Orlando with that area not being in the current projected path.

ColdFront77 -- For the safety of their employees, FEMA (and other emergency agencies) usually fly or stage operations in the areas closest to where a disaster may occur without endangering their personnel. They are flying into Orlando? Then I'm dancing in the street! However, (if you're here in The Villages during summer) you are still quite a ways north and west of Orlando Exec Airport so you may want to watch the forecast a little closer.

I see what you mean, however FEMA officials remaining in a location not expected some dangerous weather dosen't seem right.

Yes, I am 45 miles northwest of Orlando... Thanks for the mention of my geography.

[Troi]

I have to tell you, after Frances blew through here, I am not taking any of this lightly..I'm in south Marion County..and we are preparing for a hit here. I just got my power back on late wednesday afternoon, and I've been making ice ever since..We lost a brand spanking new aluminum roof over our deck..we lost several hundred dollars worth of food..believe me, no one here is taking this lightly.

[ColdFront77]

Hi Troi, welcome to Storm2K! I, as you can see just south of you (in extreme northeastern Sumter county).

I heard about the power outages even right here in the Villages, Summerfield, Wildwood, Bushnell, Fruitland Park
and Leesburg. Lights here flickered at least a dozen times between Saturday the 4th to early Monday the 6th.

[kck70]

We feel the same way here in west Volusia...just too much damage and lack of electricity not to be a little jumpy...my common sense says it aint gonna come this way...but the slow speed of movement bothers me...seems to be giving it too much time to change storms direction.

[CocoaBill]

Great - I guess it is settled. I am going to go get $300 worth of steaks and roasts and re-stock my freezer again! ALL CLEAR!!

[NFLnut]

Why would FEMA personnel being at Orlando Executive Airport mean that they absolutely believe that Ivan isn't headed toward the Orlando vinicity?

Because they are coming back in to deal with the aftermath of Charley and Frances. There is still a lot of work to do.

[Deana Cuevas]

Can someone explain to me the trough? I think what I'm hearing is: If Ivan stays slow then turns north the trough could turn him right into Tampa Bay? I'm sooooo confused...

[TampaFl]

This is why we are not out of the woods yet. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA.

FXUS62 KTBW 121657
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1257 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT)...TONIGHT THE SHEAR AXIS OVER
NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THAT SHOULD BE THE
CASE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY ASSUMING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE STORM
DOES NOT RAPIDLY EXPAND. TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE WEATHER GOING DOWN
HILL AS OUTER BANDS BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LIFT OUT OUT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
85W. ONE WORRISOME FEATURE IS THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE STORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LAST THING WE WANT IS FOR
IVAN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING. THE HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE STORM OUT AND NOT TIL
IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN GULF DOES IVAN BEGIN TO FEEL THIS TROUGH.

THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF
IVAN. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEVIATES EVEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR
RIGHT IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...BEGINNING OF EXTENDED IS DICTATED BY MOVEMENT
OF IVAN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IVAN PULLS NORTHWARD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL WRAP
AROUND IVANS CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTH SIDE...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW
DECREASE IN POPS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF HANGS BACK INTO THE GULF AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE DEEP BUT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY...SO ACTIVITY WILL TREND INLAND FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL AS WITH MORE SUNSHINE.


&&

.MARINE...I EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT IS REALLY NOT A BIG CHANGE FROM
WHAT WE HAVE SO EXPECT JUST A LITTLE TWEAKING HERE AND THERE BASED
ON THE TCM GRIDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A HURRICANE PASSING 150 MILES WEST I DONT THINK
ANYONE WILL BE BURNING. BUT JUST IN CASE YOU ARE IT WILL BE WET
AND WINDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 075/090 076/084 2469
FMY 074/090 075/084 2469
GIF 074/090 074/084 2469
SRQ 074/090 076/083 2469
BKV 073/090 074/085 2449

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

[Deana Cuevas]

Thanks!... I am new to this so understanding everything is a little difficult. I feel really stupid but everyone has been so nice to explain it to me. THANKS SORM2K! >>>>sounds like our mets are really blowing smoke, we really have no clue. Ivan is doing his own thing. He is very strong and can probably direct himself where to go. I have a really bad feeling about this one. ANY THOUGHTS?

[Deana Cuevas]

Correction: Sorry >>>>> STORM2K<<<<<

[CocoaBill]

Gov Bush even got on the TV and told Tampa to stop over-reacting and stop filling up the gas tanks in anticipation of the storm.

[ladygatorslayer]

I'm in Pasco County, right above Tampa. I do not see people letting their guards down at all. Maybe taking a breather, that's it.

We all have hurricane anxiety this year. Anybody living in Florida would be foolish to let their guards completely down.

Even if the storm stays on its path to the Panhandle, the Gulf Coasters, Tampa Bay area, etc. still need to worry about flooding from potential storm surge.

We are not completely out of the woods yet!

[Guest]

I find it really interesting that schools are closed on Monday....Boy, are those kids going to have a pretty holiday to themselves--take 'em to the zoo!!

I just found out why the schools in my county are still closed today (Volusia county). Our county alone has sustained over 9 million dollars in damage to it's public schools. The middle school about 4 miles from my house (Deltona Middle) has over $100,000 worth of damage. In the town north of us, Deland, their middle school has over $500,000 worth of damage! They are hoping to reopen soon, but with such extensive damage, it may take some time.
...Jennifer...

source: Orlando Sentinel, 9/12/04.