Did anybody else notice...

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B-Bear
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Did anybody else notice...

#1 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:28 pm

Did anybody else notice that Ivan seems to be developing a new eye that appears to be exceptionally large? Maybe I'm seeing things. Can't help but think, though, that it would be a very bad thing if he became an annular hurricane right now.
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#2 Postby JQ Public » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:30 pm

definitly. He also seems to be getting much more symmetrical. This symmetry can only promote more strengthening in my opinion.
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#3 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:30 pm

Probably an eyewall replacement cycle comepleting. If it is we could see some intensification begin in a while as if it isn't strong enough already!!!
Last edited by vbhoutex on Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby adelphi_sky » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:31 pm

Yes, I've noticed.
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#5 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:33 pm

JQ Public wrote:definitly. He also seems to be getting much more symmetrical. This symmetry can only promote more strengthening in my opinion.


Yeah, I notice that symmetry too. That's what's got me concerned he may be ready to go annular. Of course, it's difficult to really suggest that right now, but very large eye and symmetry are two the necessary ingredients.
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#6 Postby calidoug » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:38 pm

It did look that way (as it has a couple times before), but convection has refired around a smaller eye again. Check the 2015Z shot.
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#7 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:39 pm

I know everyone is going crazy with the wnw, nw, west wobbles, but if Ivan strengthens any more is it possible that he can basically say i am more powerful than anything else and go where I want, when I want. Basically create his own steering flow. Just a comment as I am not sure what can happen.
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Re: Did anybody else notice...

#8 Postby arcticfire » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:44 pm

B-Bear wrote:Did anybody else notice that Ivan seems to be developing a new eye that appears to be exceptionally large? Maybe I'm seeing things. Can't help but think, though, that it would be a very bad thing if he became an annular hurricane right now.


New to the site and lovin the info. I have done some searching and cannot seem to find a def of the term annular applied to a hurricane. Could someone please tell me what you mean by saying Ivan might go annular?
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#9 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:44 pm

Image

This looks to me like a hurricane that is trying to form one big-azz eye. I don't want it to become annular, but it sure looks like it's got the potential.
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Re: Did anybody else notice...

#10 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:47 pm

arcticfire wrote:
B-Bear wrote:Did anybody else notice that Ivan seems to be developing a new eye that appears to be exceptionally large? Maybe I'm seeing things. Can't help but think, though, that it would be a very bad thing if he became an annular hurricane right now.


New to the site and lovin the info. I have done some searching and cannot seem to find a def of the term annular applied to a hurricane. Could someone please tell me what you mean by saying Ivan might go annular?


Annular hurricanes form much bigger eyes in relation to the overall size of the storm. They end up looking like a big donut. Only 1% of Atlantic hurricanes actually become annular, and conditions have to be virtually perfect for it to happen. Ivan is, by the way, in virtually perfect conditions for hurricane development. An annular eye is somehow more efficient than a regular eye, so the storm is generally able to retain its intensity better and not go through as many ERCs.
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Re: Did anybody else notice...

#11 Postby Ed25 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:59 pm

arcticfire wrote:
B-Bear wrote:Did anybody else notice that Ivan seems to be developing a new eye that appears to be exceptionally large? Maybe I'm seeing things. Can't help but think, though, that it would be a very bad thing if he became an annular hurricane right now.


New to the site and lovin the info. I have done some searching and cannot seem to find a def of the term annular applied to a hurricane. Could someone please tell me what you mean by saying Ivan might go annular?

Annular hurri-
canes generally display a large eye surrounded by a solid ring of
intense convection, with little convection elsewhere. Such storms are
usually not prone to the ups and downs in intensity related to the
eyewall replacement cycles commonly seen in intense tropical cyclones.
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#12 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:59 pm

Yep. Mitch and Gilbert had annular eyes.
Ivans gonna be a cat 5 again by 8pm :eek:

I think he will be stronger than he ever has been ny the time he finishes this cycle of strengthening(175-180mph)
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itglobalsecure

Beautiful article on Annular Hurricanes

#13 Postby itglobalsecure » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:21 pm

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/annularhurr.pdf

Written for professionals, but has excellents graphs and charts that help all of us.
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#14 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:22 pm

Last year's Isabel was annular. I've never seen anything like that before. It was beautiful, man.
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Anonymous

#15 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:33 pm

Yep. Mitch and Gilbert had annular eyes.
Ivans gonna be a cat 5 again by 8pm

I think he will be stronger than he ever has been ny the time he finishes this cycle of strengthening(175-180mph)


..No not Gilbert.
Gilbert had one of the smallest eyes I have ever seen (Like 10 miles across). Mitch could be considered annular though (large eye). I think the greatest example of an annular hurricane was Isabel last year, 50 nautical mile wide eye. I guess you could also consider Frances annular at landfall (to some degree).
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#16 Postby B-Bear » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:39 pm

Houstoner wrote:
Yep. Mitch and Gilbert had annular eyes.
Ivans gonna be a cat 5 again by 8pm

I think he will be stronger than he ever has been ny the time he finishes this cycle of strengthening(175-180mph)


..No not Gilbert.
Gilbert had one of the smallest eyes I have ever seen (Like 10 miles across). Mitch could be considered annular though (large eye). I think the greatest example of an annular hurricane was Isabel last year, 50 nautical mile wide eye. I guess you could also consider Frances annular at landfall (to some degree).


I don't think Frances would qualify. Granted, she had a very large eye. But the large eye was not due to the fact that she had become so utterly efficient in managing her energy. She didn't have the deep convection and she certainly wasn't powerful enough at that point to be an annular hurricane. Isabel, though, was a great example.
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Scorpion

#17 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:43 pm

Wow, with that new eye Ivan will be a monster indeed!
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