Ivan Advisories

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT44 KNHC 122100 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  IVAN
HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE SWAPPED POSITIONS...WITH THE UKMET SHIFTING
EASTWARD WHILE NOGAPS SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE LATEST 18Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HAS ERODED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 90W LONGITUDE...
AND THE SLOW EASTWARD EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER THE
HURRICANE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON RECENT AIR
FORCE AND NOAA RECON REPORTS. HAVING SAID THAT...A NEW RECON REPORT
INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 4 MB IN THE PAST 2 HOURS DOWN
TO 916 MB. THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY...MAINLY
DUE TO ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BUT THE LOW SHEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE VERY WARM SSTS AHEAD OF IVAN SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE AT LEAST AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH UNTIL THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS REACHED IN 36-48 HOURS. SOME COOL UPWELLING IS EXPECTED
FROM THAT POINT UNTIL U.S. LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING
ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING DESPITE THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
 
BECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT
WHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN
THE LONGER TIME PERIODS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 19.3N  82.5W   130 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.9N  83.5W   140 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.3N  84.7W   145 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 23.1N  85.5W   140 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 25.4N  86.0W   125 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N  86.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  85.0W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/1800Z 37.5N  81.0W    25 KT...INLAND



[roostercogburn]

Well if it is a donkey brigade, stay put, kick your feet up, it can wait. But if it is the elephant brigade, carry on soldier. Get the work done.

[PurdueWx80]

The most telling part of this discussion is the fact that there is no longer any shear forecast, but instead a "very favorable upper-level outflow pattern". I'm not sure what upwelling they are referring to, but if this storm goes where the model consensus is (further west than the NHC track), nothing will stop Ivan from being a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall.

Joe Bastardi has now gone back to his original forecast from 7-10 days ago - a landfall between Pensacola and the mouth of the Mississippi River that may resemble Camille intensity-wise. He also makes note of the wave to the E of the Lesser Antilles - says it will probably have developed by this time next week and will threaten the east coast.

[canegrl04]

WHOA

So its possible Ivan could wind up hitting somebody as a cat 4 or 5.

[mobilebay]

yes the most interesting part is he said ukmet shifted east. let see app. to mobile is WEST STEWART. I double checked to make sure i'm correct and i am. He said his forecast is in good agreement with the ukmet. This is WAY east of any track but the GFS . THIS IS BULLCRAP.

[das8929]

I still think SW coast of FL, but thats not very reasonable, so I'll say Big Bend.

[tronbunny]

Beautiful!
Excellent voice of reason.
Refreshing to hear uncertainty.
What I heard was....
"when Ivan emerges into the gulf, it could do almost anything."

[cycloneye]

The most important lines are in the very last paragrafh.

[Bane]

Obviously someone sees something wrong with it or they wouldn't be complaining.

[NateFLA]

Thank you! That was an excellent read.

[canegrl04]

Thats suppose to be funny?

[weatherFrEaK]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44371

[cat]

I dont see anyhting wrong with it and I dont htink anyone else does either.

Whoops. My apologies. I didn't even think to look at the rules to see if this type of thing was inappropriate.

I'm sorry if I offended anyone.

[KBBOCA]

Ivan seems determined to keep everyone from FL to Texas insane with the anxiety and uncertainty of where he is header for at least another few days....

AAARRRRRGGGGHHHH!

[lookout]

yes the most interesting part is he said ukmet shifted east. let see app. to mobile is WEST STEWART. I double checked to make sure i'm correct and i am. He said his forecast is in good agreement with the ukmet. This is WAY east of any track but the GFS . THIS IS BULLCRAP.

you must really want it to come your way, my question is why? this storm is going to destroy whatever is in its path. as noted above im concerned about the "favorable upper level pattern" stewart refers to and says weakening is only expected because of cooler ssts, not shear like was previously discussed. i dont know, something tells me this cane wont weaken as much as shown, instead maybe 115 to 125 kts at landfall.

[caneman]

Where does UKMET have it going. Link?

[canegrl04]

Yeah.The lines about uncertain intensity.Frightening to think Ivan may hit someone a-la Camille

[wabbitoid]

It sounds to me like it will enter a very warm Gulf as a Cat 5 and facing little or no shear. If it starts to get some direction as it moves north, it may accelerate, meaning landfall before it has a chance to fall apart.

Camille. It's just a matter of where. I still think it'll be so strong it won't stear all that much, meaning BIloxi / New Orleans would be where I'd center my guess. I really hope I am wrong, as that could result in amazing death and destruction.

[GABE]

just wondering.....should we be concerned about those evil-looking "things" out east?????

[mobilebay]

yes the most interesting part is he said ukmet shifted east. let see app. to mobile is WEST STEWART. I double checked to make sure i'm correct and i am. He said his forecast is in good agreement with the ukmet. This is WAY east of any track but the GFS . THIS IS BULLCRAP.

you must really want it to come your way, my question is why? this storm is going to destroy whatever is in its path. as noted above im concerned about the "favorable upper level pattern" stewart refers to and says weakening is only expected because of cooler ssts, not shear like was previously discussed. i dont know, something tells me this cane wont weaken as much as shown, instead maybe 115 to 125 kts at landfall.

He don't know east from west you listning to him on how strong it will be?