Update from local N O Met

[bfez1]

I just got word through a source that the FSU Super Ensemble Model is brining Ivan into Biloxi Thursday morning. I am still trying to confirm this, but it would be along the same lines as what the Euro and NOGAPS is pointing to. I'll try to get additional confirmation on this, but obviously with some of these trends we are seeing, we have reason to be a bit nervous. I am still encouraged, however, that a lot of the other guidance is still east of us. The problem is, a lot of this guidance has been too far to the right so far. Let's see if NHC makes any adjustment to their next track. I doubt it will be anything too drastic though.

John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[Sean in New Orleans]

OK---this is getting too close for comfort!!!

[bfez1]

We need a "Hurricane" from Pat O's LOL

[wxwatcher2]

The Big EZ may be in for a wet week.

[Ixolib]

OK---this is getting too close for comfort!!!

Yeah, I'd say CLOSE is a good word...

[WeatherNLU]

OK, now I am concerned. If there is one model I don't want trending this way, it's the accurate one! Time to call my friend at FSU.

[TideFreak]

That would definitely not be good for us here. Only 50 Miles east of that

[~SirCane]

People here in Pensacola are boarding up like crazy now....

This Hurricane is so big we must be prepared for the worst.

It's going to affect a lot of people!

[crabbyhermit]

If it comes to Biloxi that would be awful for our friends on the Redneck Riviera! I love Biloxi! But at least NO will be on the 'weak' side of the storm, such as it is.

[NorthGaWeather]

From the 5 people I know at FSU they say its into PCB.

[manofsteele79]

I grew up in the Gulf Shores area in Alabama and experienced (directly or indirectly) Elena, Erin, Opal, Danny, and Georges. I was only 10 miles from the coast so we got a lot of wind. Now I'm in Hattiesburg, MS which is about 65 miles north of Gulfport/Biloxi. If a major hurricane hit the MS coast, what kind of damage could we expect this far north? The reason I'm concerned is my house is surrounded by HUGE oaks. Thanks.

[Sean in New Orleans]

From the 5 people I know at FSU they say its into PCB.

I heard this, as well, but, I think that was the run before this one.

[louise_l]

I grew up in the Gulf Shores area in Alabama and experienced (directly or indirectly) Elena, Erin, Opal, Danny, and Georges. I was only 10 miles from the coast so we got a lot of wind. Now I'm in Hattiesburg, MS which is about 65 miles north of Gulfport/Biloxi. If a major hurricane hit the MS coast, what kind of damage could we expect this far north? The reason I'm concerned is my house is surrounded by HUGE oaks. Thanks.

A "rule of thumb" that I've sometimes heard for New Orleanians who want to evacuate, is to choose a location at least 100 miles inland. To me that would imply that a major hurricane would cause some impact on Hattiesburg, but not nearly as much as you experienced in the Gulf Shores area.

I do know a few New Orleanians who choose Hattiesburg as an evacuation destination.

Hope this helps.

[TSmith274]

If this storm hits just west of New Orleans, projections are that the storm surge could reach almost to I-12 on the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain. Our levee system is designed to protect us from a Cat3 hurricane. A Cat4 would be too close for comfort. If the track shifts that far, get out. That's all I have to say.

[HollynLA]

If this storm hits just west of New Orleans, projections are that the storm surge could reach almost to I-12 on the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain. Our levee system is designed to protect us from a Cat3 hurricane. A Cat4 would be too close for comfort. If the track shifts that far, get out. That's all I have to say.

What?? You've gotta be pulling my chain?? That's beyond unthinkable..................... Huh? I'm south of I-12 along with the rest of my family spread throughout N.O. and Mandeville.

[goodlife]

Holly....it's true...I, too, live south of I-12 in Mandeville...and when we were threatened with Georges in 98...that's exactly what they were saying.

[MSRobi911]

Hattiesburg is an OK place. They usually get some wind, a lot of rain and some tornados. Most people from the coast go there. I have already heard their hotels are full and that Jackson only had a few openings, that was at lunch time.

[HollynLA]

I remember watching a documentary about a major hurricane (I think it was cat 4) hitting N.O. and they said the surge would go over the levees and the water would remain in NO for approx 3 to 6 months as it would have no where to drain and the pumps won't work once covered in water. Since NO is below sea level, the water would literally sit there for possibly this long. The whole show was mind blowing as it was a truly catastrophic event. Wow, I certainly hope none of us experience something of this magnitude, but who knows what is just around the corner

[MBryant]

Damage in Hattisberg (sic) would depend greatly on the soil condition ahead of the storm.

A 90 degree impact of a storm moving 10 MPH would probably affect Hattisberg with winds 1 or 2 Categories below landfall strength.

Winds would be sufficient to uproot trees, especially Oaks with their shallow roots. If the soil is loose and saturated, power would be lost for days or even weeks due to trees falling on power lines. Damage would be predominantly tree and freshwater flood related. Severe structural damage would be limited to the area nearest the wind shield and poorly constructed homes (ie Tornado Magnets - sometimes referred to as manufactured homes).

[crabbyhermit]

Go to this link and clilck on the JPG for graphics about sea levels, what neighborhoods would get how much flooding, etc. in NO and surrounding areas.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... under.html