One thing that bears remembering in all of this is that for the most part, the model consensus this season has been too far to the left (i.e. Charlie, Bonnie, Frances in the Gulf)...I surmise that this is the reason that the the NHC track is to the right of most of the guidance.
I made the statement the other day (last week actually) on flhurricane.com that I can't see this storm going any further west than Biloxi, and I see no need to change that thinking...once it does turn north, and it WILL turn north, there would have to be a LOT of western vector for a very long time to get it as far west as NO, or any part of LA. Not saying it won't happen, but I see no meteorological reason for it to happen at this point. I see no reason to think that this isn't a Panhandle storm, as far west as BIX (maybe...that is still stretching it to me) and as far east as Cedar Key.
Use at your own discretion...Your Mileage May Vary....
Important note about the models this season....
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PurdueWx80
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caneman
PurdueWx80 wrote:It must have been too far to the left once to a certain point because w/ Ivan everything has been too far right. First they were north of Hispaniola, then over it, then north of Jamaica, then through central Cuba...etc etc etc.
Not to speak for Jason but he may be talking about the end result. Landfall could occur further East than currently advertised. Inside 72 hours or so.
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PurdueWx80
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wxman007
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Well...
The primary reason for my post is that for a LA strike to happen, given the synoptics we have in place, you'd have to get the storm WELL to the west of LA so that the NE 'hookback' would carry it in there...I just don't see any way to get Ivan THAT far west. It COULD happen, but he also COULD head back east and hit Jamaica again (NOT GOING TO HAPPEN)...I just don't see any meteorlogical reason for Ivan to head to LA.
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wxman007
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PurdueWx80 wrote:It must have been too far to the left once to a certain point because w/ Ivan everything has been too far right. First they were north of Hispaniola, then over it, then north of Jamaica, then through central Cuba...etc etc etc.
Right, properly worded (and I am pressed for time because I am about to go on the air) is that once the endgame for landfall had been determined (and it appears that the models are settling in somewhat) that the model consencus tracks were generally too far left. Just food for thought.
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PurdueWx80
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That is solid reasoning. The only thing I would worry about is a stronger than forecast ridge to the E and NE of Ivan once the shortwave in the mid-MS valley moves out. W/ the trough in the Pac NW progressing slowly east, the biggest weakness in the ridge would be to the northwest oft he storm. Some of the statistics shown on this board indicate most storms coming from this location do enter the coastline from the SSE. For now, I will presume a pure northward motion to happen since it isn't completely obvious where the weakness will be by then.
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latemodel25
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PurdueWx80
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latemodel25
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PurdueWx80
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LOL...ok. I have officially been saying mouth of the MS River to Tampa for over a week now, but I'm going to narrow this down to New Orleans to Apalachicola as of now. That would mean the highest likelihood of landfall as I see it now is near Mobile Bay. I was tempted to say even further west, but I'll wait another day or two for more model guidance and to see how the synoptics have progressed.
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lahurricanewatcher
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Re: Well...
wxman007 wrote:...for a LA strike to happen, given the synoptics we have in place, you'd have to get the storm WELL to the west of LA so that the NE 'hookback' would carry it in there...I just don't see any way to get Ivan THAT far west.
That makes sense. If Ivan gets past 90W, I'll start to worry in my location. However.. I think this is mainly a panhandle storm. Now, am I confident...NO. It appears to be moving nw now, so perhaps this is the beginning of a northward turn??? Ughh, disregard that last comment. I am so confused.
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Air Force Met
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PurdueWx80 wrote:It must have been too far to the left once to a certain point because w/ Ivan everything has been too far right. First they were north of Hispaniola, then over it, then north of Jamaica, then through central Cuba...etc etc etc.
Yep...several days ago the model consensus was up through central FLorida from the south...or even of the Bahamas. Then they shifted west into Ft Myers....then Tampa...going west.
So far on Ivan...they've been way too far to the right.
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