Ivan Advisories

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 122008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/2008Z
B. 19 DEG 12 MIN N
   82 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2361 M
D. 080 KT
E. 205 DEG 009 NM
F. 305 DEG 118 KT
G. 209 DEG 021 NM
H. 916 MB
I. 10 C/ 3063 M
J. 16 C/ 3053 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO14-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 26
   MAX FL WIND 132 KT NW QUAD 1813Z.
   MAX FL TEMP 17C 205/009NM FROM FL CNTR.

[Scorpion]

Ouch.

[Matthew5]

I can see that the hurricane is having a hard time bring its eye together. But when it doe's watch for a 15 to 20 millibar drop!

[WeatherNLU]

I'm a huge Stewart fan, but he blew this one.

The UKMET is not east and the NOGAPS went west. What is he looking at?

It's like they refuse to move the track. Earlier they went with the CONU now they are admittingly defying it.

What gives?

[TSmith274]

I see nothing wrong with discussing New Orleans as a possible target. If anything, it'll get people around here to start paying attention. Too early to start talking about New Orleans, you say? Just read this quote from the article posted in this thread earlier....
"Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross."

In my book, we SHOULD be talking about New Orleans. It might save lives.

[wabbitoid]

I can see that the hurricane is having a hard time bring its eye together. But when it doe's watch for a 15 to 20 millibar drop!

Which puts him in a race to catch Gilbert's 888mb.

[feederband]

agree he seems to be more active at nite, probably will see same as last nite..

[Nimbus]

Obviously the ridge is expanding more than forecast so any turn to the right will be primarily due to Ivan tracking into the northern part of the ridge combined with Coriolis effect.

[sgastorm]

I'm a huge Stewart fan, but he blew this one.

The UKMET is not east and the NOGAPS went west. What is he looking at?

It's like they refuse to move the track. Earlier they went with the CONU now they are admittingly defying it.

What gives?

He mentioned the 18Z upper air data and the erosion of the ridge at 90W. They are expecting further erosion and the storm to turn as a result.

[jwcaneme]

Gabe, heard Bastardi said the blob E of the islands will be an E coast system to watch next week. GFS, which he seems to relate to, has it actually on the NC coast in 10-11 days. Will see. The fun never ends this season.

[caneman]

Nope didn't work, I counted around 30 threads that have been posted on this topic.

I'll continue it. Would actually like to start a new one, however, have noticed in the last 3 hours that the system appears to be moving NW based on the 2:00 advisory. I think they kept the the speed the same and direction at the 5:00 package for continuity perposes and not enough long term movement. However, it appears to me that a NW movement has begun. Thoughts? And will wait to see the 8:00 advisory.

[canegrl04]

Crap I can already tell Ivan will exceed Mitch in intensity.Maybe get close to Camille

[Guest]

Yes I agree it does seem to have more of a northerly push to it. I guess time will tell if there is more to it. 8pm advisory will tell the story.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm going to post this again, just because....Camille and Mitch were the same pressure intensity:

1. Hurricane GILBERT 888 MB 160 KT
2. 1935 FL KEYS 892 MB ??? KT (GUSTS TO 175 KT)
3. Hurricane ALLEN 899 MB 165 KT
4. Hurricane CAMILLE 905 MB 165 KT
4. Hurricane MITCH 905 MB 155 KT
6. Hurricane IVAN 910 MB 145 KT

[SeaBrz_FL]

Please come! We need the revenue! After Charley and Frances, the resort managers are pros and many hotels have invested in bigger generators.

If you are lacking hotel rooms (because of evacuees), call the Orlando Visitors Bureau at (407) 354 5555 and they can give you up-to-minute hotel availibility.

[crabbyhermit]

I'm in uptown NOLA, several blocks from the river, which is relatively high ground (a few feet above sea level). This neighborhood has never flooded, not even in Betsy in 65. This same house I'm in now got through Betsy just fine, too. I think Betsy was a cat 3. Andrew blew out an attic window, but no flooding or other damage. So if it's a cat 3, I'm staying put.

I thought about leaving with Andrew, but had we gone where we planned (Baton Rouge) we would've gotten more of the storm than we ended up getting in NO.

If it's a 4 or 5, I don't know what I'll do. My situation is such that leaving would be very difficult in any case (elderly/invalid parent, several pets, etc.). And I'm sure there are many others in NO who are in the same boat.

The thing is, if you're going to leave, leave early enough to miss the mass exodus on the roads and find a place to stay. Other people I know who left for Andrew and Georges ended up driving for days north, literally trying to outrun the storms. If you're staying, stock up like crazy and pray.

[cat]

Why don't you ask on a thread that is a movement topic?

This belongs on the "People Who Can't Control Their Control Issues" thread.

[LSUChamps0002]

I wont stay in metairie if a cat 4 comes. No power for awhile, snakes, no anything. Whoo wants to deal with that?

[NFLnut]

Oh boy. Please let them shift back east. That's not what I wanted to see.

No offense to anyone in Florida, but Florida might still be there if Ivan hits. Not sure we'd be so lucky here.

Thanks, but we've taken more than our share this year!! Time for someone else to step in and take a hit! (Sorry)

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Reportedly people are standing on there roofs to escape the water....