Strike Probabilities

[bfez1]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... trike.html

[Guest]

Thanks for the link bfez1

[Guest]

I will add this here instead of making a new thread.

000
WTNT74 KNHC 122043
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

21.3N 84.7W 40 X X X 40 VENICE FL X X 5 7 12
23.1N 85.5W 3 24 X 1 28 TAMPA FL X X 3 8 11
25.4N 86.0W X 8 14 2 24 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 9 10
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL X X 1 9 10
MUCF 221N 805W 1 1 1 2 5 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 10 12
MUSN 216N 826W 26 1 X X 27 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 10 12
MUHA 230N 824W 5 9 1 1 16 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 11 12
MUAN 219N 850W 30 2 X 1 33 MOBILE AL X X 1 10 11
MMCZ 205N 869W 18 3 X X 21 GULFPORT MS X X 1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X 2 10 12
MMMD 210N 897W X 3 1 1 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10
MARATHON FL X 1 4 4 9 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 8 8
MIAMI FL X X 2 5 7 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 5 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 5 6 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 4 10 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 10 15
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 89W X X 7 8 15
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X 3 8 11
KEY WEST FL X 3 6 3 12 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 6 7
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
FT MYERS FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[tdess02]

Probabilities have been increasing to the west. Yesterday, N.O. was at 5% and today they are 10%. Pensacola, which is in the center of the NHC track is now at 12%. Does this reflect the uncertain future of Ivan?

[Lockhart]

Of course. The center being only at 12% shows great uncertainty. Miami is about 5%, and we're *very* far from the center, so Pensacola only having 2 to 3 times our chances of it coming with 65 miles is amazing. This is still very much up in the air.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44341

[Lockhart]

Oops. For some reason, I thought the probabilities went four days out. So the relatively low scores for places in the center of the cone are also attributable to the distance.

[Guest]

Does anyone know the time that these are updated. The next one we can post on here and compare the changes.

[Lockhart]

I believe they only update the probabilities with the major updates. So, they should have the next set at 11PM.

[Guest]

Thanks Lockhart. Either me or someone will post it here so we can compare the two.

[tronbunny]

Can anyone tell me why Daytona Beach has a higher probability than Tampa???

[Guest]

Daytona has 6%, 6%. Compared to Tampa's 8%, 11%. Looks like Tampa's is higher to me.

[TampaFl]

Good question Tronbunny. I was wondering the same. Also here is the complete Prop. List. Only a portion of it was posted by NCstateWolf.
Please if you post the propbs. or any othrs, please post the whole list for all to see as to not cause confusion.

Hurricane IVAN

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000
WTNT74 KNHC 122043
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

21.3N 84.7W 40 X X X 40 VENICE FL X X 5 7 12
23.1N 85.5W 3 24 X 1 28 TAMPA FL X X 3 8 11
25.4N 86.0W X 8 14 2 24 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 9 10
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL X X 1 9 10
MUCF 221N 805W 1 1 1 2 5 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 10 12
MUSN 216N 826W 26 1 X X 27 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 10 12
MUHA 230N 824W 5 9 1 1 16 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 11 12
MUAN 219N 850W 30 2 X 1 33 MOBILE AL X X 1 10 11
MMCZ 205N 869W 18 3 X X 21 GULFPORT MS X X 1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X 2 10 12
MMMD 210N 897W X 3 1 1 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10
MARATHON FL X 1 4 4 9 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 8 8
MIAMI FL X X 2 5 7 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 5 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 5 6 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 4 10 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 10 15
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 89W X X 7 8 15
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X 3 8 11
KEY WEST FL X 3 6 3 12 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 6 7
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
FT MYERS FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$




Robert

[tronbunny]

Man, I need new glasses!
Thanks for the correction

[Guest]

TampaFl what did I leave off so I can make sure it doesn't happen again?

[Guest]

000
WTNT74 KNHC 130236
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

22.3N 85.0W 40 X X X 40 TAMPA FL X X 2 8 10
23.9N 85.9W 6 21 1 X 28 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 9 10
25.8N 86.5W X 12 9 2 23 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11
MWCG 193N 814W 13 X X 1 14 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 1 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 11 13
MUSN 216N 826W 39 X X X 39 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 12 13
MUHA 230N 824W 11 3 1 X 15 MOBILE AL X X 1 12 13
MUAN 219N 850W 46 X X X 46 GULFPORT MS X X 2 11 13
MMCZ 205N 869W 15 X X X 15 BURAS LA X X 4 10 14
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 11 13
MARATHON FL X 1 2 3 6 NEW IBERIA LA X X 1 9 10
MIAMI FL X X 1 3 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 6 6
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL X X X 5 5 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 11 14
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 6 10 16
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 11 6 17
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X 6 7 13
KEY WEST FL X 2 4 3 9 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 7 8
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 3 5 8 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
FT MYERS FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2
VENICE FL X X 3 7 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


$$