So now no shear in the gulf but cool upwelling? huh?

[Stormchaser16]

Not giving you a hard time, just trying to show that the heat potential isnt there for Ivan once it enters the GOM and it may turn it on a weakening trend

[Derek Ortt]

heat content really only matters if the storm slows down. For a storm that is moving at a decent speed, SST is the variable to look for. If... and a big if... it gets into the GOM at this speed and moves 8-10 m.p.h. all the way to the coast, then heat content will be the more important factor

[Steve Cosby]

Uhhhhh

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

No upper ocean heat potential..... at all

OK - this must be some kind of indication of available energy (labeled in Joules?) that takes into account the lower levels of the water as well as the surface temperature, right?

The SST links on this page show the high SST's we've seen. I gather there is a lower layer that is extremely cool?

Fascinating, in any event. Thanks for that link!

[Ivanova]

Not giving you a hard time...

Then don't diss me when I'm right

[B-Bear]

Derek, this is referring to how deep the water retains its heat?

[Stormchaser16]

Well we will just have to see, for a time as it begins to move north into a lower heat content area it may have to deal with it before it actually begins to pick up more and more speed, and this could weaken it to a weaker cat 4 or strong 3

[PTPatrick]

I suspect this could be why ships initially weakens it, but then strengthens it later to a 4 before landfall...it will go over the red area in teh middle of the gulf. BUT...the blue doesnt mean that it cant maintain or strengthen. It is still warm waters and the storm doesnt NEED the red and yellow to build strength, that is just where it is MOST liekly

[Stormchaser16]

Dude your not totally right, are you color blind? theres lots of blue there

[Anonymous]

Now don't you remember how Ivan bombed in that blue area north of the ABC islands? Your relying far too much on that heat content to weaken Ivan StormChaser.

[Stormchaser16]

No im not relying on it lol

[Ivanova]

Dude your not totally right, are you color blind? theres lots of blue there

As Reagan would say.... " there you go again "

btw... "Ivanova" is the feminine version of Ivanov


*

[Steve Cosby]

Now don't you remember how Ivan bombed in that blue area north of the ABC islands? Your relying far too much on that heat content to weaken Ivan StormChaser.

Go back in time on that site and the blue is not as extensive.

I suspect the resolution from the satellite producing the raw is not real small.

[Stormchaser16]

dudette

[Ivanova]

dudette

That's better


*

[Derek Ortt]

heat content is a function of the depth of the warm water

[FritzPaul]

I maybe wrong, but are they talking about potential energy?

If so, a good analogy would be holding your car keys out away from your body and dropping them. Then do the same with the keys held over your head. The potential energy is greater when the keys are released from a greater height. So, the depth of the warm water equates to the difference between releasing the keys at arms length and releasing the keys over your head.

[B-Bear]

heat content is a function of the depth of the warm water

Thanks. So it becomes more of a factor then when upwelling is involved, I would imagine.

[B-Bear]

I maybe wrong, but are they talking about potential energy?

If so, a good analogy would be holding your car keys out away from your body and dropping them. Then do the same with the keys held over your head. The potential energy is greater when the keys are released from a greater height. So, the depth of the warm water equates to the difference between releasing the keys at arms length and releasing the keys over your head.

Doesn't that hurt when they hit your head? Couldn't we use a marshmellow or something instead of keys for his experiment? What kind of sadistic SOB are you, anyway?

[NorthGaWeather]

Stormchaser16, do you see that area of TCHP in the middle of the Gulf right where Ivan will go? If Ivan gets into that area of 125 kJ/cm2 TCHP then he will explode after coming out of that lower TCHP. Opal went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 when the TCHP went up 30 kJ/cm2. Ivan will experience a rise of 100 kJ/cm2.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

from the 5pm discussion, omitted

"Upwelling and shear have been negated within the forecast. Although dynomat release by a 747 should begin to weaken the storm as forecasted to 105kt before landfall." -Avila