Floydbuster's 12th Ivan Forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 12
Sunday September 12, 2004 6pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan is about to intensify like it did yesterday evening. Currently winds are 150 mph and a low pressure of 916 mb. Do NOT let this fool you. Ivan is a killer hurricane.

The movement/track is shifted farther WEST. Folks, the NHC and almost everyone else has NO CLUE where Hurricane Ivan will go. I say almost because the only other two people who know where it will go is Mother Nature and God. Other than that, everyone is clueless on track.

The intensity is odd. First shear is expected to turn Ivan into less that a category 3, then is forecast to hit as a category 4, now is forecast to hit as a strong catgeory 3. It is now forecast by the NHC to weaken not totally due to shear, but due to "UPWELLING". I don't buy this quite yet. Therefore I basically keep Ivan a category 4 until landfall. This will be a HORRIBLE hurricnae for the US Gulf Coast. Evacuation of New Orleans may have to be put in place soon.

12 HRS-- 20.0N-- 84.1W-- 140 kt
24 HRS-- 21.8 N--85.1 W-- 145 kt
36 HRS-- 23.6N-- 86.3 W-- 140 kt
48 HRS-- 26.0N-- 87.2 W-- 135 kt
72 HRS-- 28.8N-- 87.2 W-- 125 kt
96 HRS-- 30.8N-- 87.2 W-- 100 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 33.8N-- 86.1 W-- 50 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

[canegrl04]

I don't mean to lambast NHC,but it sounds like they are trying to make excuses as to why Ivan won't be a cat 4-cat 5 storm in the Gulf

[melhow]

Whoa...that is a FAR CRY from the one you posted at 11. Why the HUGE change, when the data seems consistant from earlier today?

[MysticOne]

What made you change your mind in such dramatic fashion?

[Anonymous]

Because one moment it looks like it will follow the east side of the track and 3 hours later it look farther to the west.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Gotta say, this and Derek's looks like the most reasonable forecasts I've seen. Not being a homer here, cause I don't want it.

[melhow]

Floyd....

So you are basing your track on the storm's current direction and which model it seems to be on at the time of your forecast?

[NCbabidoll]

At least you are honest in saying you don't know which way it will go. Thanks for the update. Keep us posted

[David]

At least you are honest in saying you don't know which way it will go. Thanks for the update. Keep us posted

Yeah, but who really knows for sure? No one.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Hurricane Ivan is about to intensify like it did yesterday evening. Currently winds are 150 mph and a low pressure of 916 mb. Do NOT let this fool you. Ivan is a killer hurricane.

since when is 916mb surface pressure and 150 mph sustained not a killer hurricane? and why would users on this board be fooled into thinking it is not a 'killer hurricane' lol. Have you ever experienced a hurricane in Ohio?

[rbaker]

to floydbusters defense there have been alot of pro amatuers(if there is such a thing)who said ivan would not make it past 83 w, well its doing so right now. That being said he is in good company including the tpc and models. So if though they are off on their predictions by quite a bit, most of them are admitting it. Someone will be right probably my process of elimination.