Comments on the Atlantic (12.09.2004, 2157 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

N 12.09.2004 [SUN SEP 12 2004]
2157 UTC [04:57 PM CDT]


HURRICANE IVAN (09L)

My previous position forecasts have been somewhat accurate, but a little to the right, of Ivan's current track. The strength forecasts have been generally correct due, but exact strengths were not due to the concentric eyewall cycle. Ivan has become much better organized during the past 3-6 hours, and pressure has fallen to 916 mb. This is a sign that Ivan may be on his way to another rapid intensification phase, with pressures falling below 910 mb this time. Ivan continues in a more westward motion then previously forecasted, but is now beginning to show some signs of a right turn. Models have shifted to near Mobile/Pensacola, with NOGAPS an outlier to New Orleans and CMC an outlier to Texas. GFS and BAMM are outliers to Panama City. NHC continues to be to the right of the model consensus...understandable after a somewhat leftward bias overall this year....but not understandable with the extreme rightward bias the models have had with Ivan so far. Strength forecast: I expect that Ivan will strengthen to a category 5 later today/tonight due to the completing eyewall cycle and falling pressures. Position forecast: I now expect Ivan to pass through the Yucatan Channel, with a NW, NNW, and N ward turn into Extreme NW FL or S AL. ALL INTERESTS IN E LA, S MS, S AL, AND NW FL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. W Coast FL residents also do not need to let their guard down. Below is the position and intensity forecast for Ivan (Note: No Next Advisory forecast due to the last full advisory package coming out in the last hour).

POSITION AND INTENSITY FORECAST 2206Z
INITIAL 19.3 N 82.5 W 130 KT
12 HR 20.2 N 84.0 W 145 KT
24 HR 21.8 N 85.3 W 150 KT...JUST W OF W CUBA (YUCATAN CHANNEL)
36 HR 23.6 N 86.8 W 150 KT
48 HR 25.7 N 87.9 W 140 KT
72 HR 29.2 N 87.8 W 130 KT
MAKES LANDFALL NEAR AL/FL STATE LINE NEAR 82 HR
96 HR 32.3 N 86.4 W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR MONTGOMERY, AL
120 HR 35.0 N 84.3 W 35 KT...INLAND NEAR TN/NC/GA STATE LINE

NOTE: CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASES CAN VARY THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 115 KT AND 165 KT AT ANY TIME THROUGH 82 HR.

NOTE: POSITION FORECASTS MARGIN OF ERRORS: 72 HR: 50 NM, 96 HR: 100 NM, 120 HR: 150 NM.

PEOPLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NEED TO CHECK THEIR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES, FILL GAS TANKS, GET CASH MONEY, AND REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW, THEY WILL NEED TO SECURE THEIR HOME.


***END

[Brent]

96 HR 32.3 N 86.4 W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR MONTGOMERY, AL

Thanks a lot. I'm in the right-front quadrant of a Category 1.

[Stormchaser16]

Knock it off

[Anonymous]

What do you have weakening this 20 knots prior to landfall?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Stormchaser.........?????

Houstoner.....general consensus of models, ERCs, and the fact that hurricanes usually do not contain category 5 strength for that long......Allen was the only one to ever become a category 5 more than twice.....Ivan looks to be the second......and there has never been one that has done it four times.

[Anonymous]

I see.
BTW I thought Ivan already got Cat 5 twice? Itll be his third tonight.

[Brent]

Knock it off

You talking to me?

I'm not mad at him, just don't like the forecast.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

He has Houstoner.....I was noting that Ivan looks to be the second hurricane to reach category 5 strength three times.

[Anonymous]

Gotcha.

[Matthew5]

Allen hit cat5 3 times!

What other hurricanes hit cat5 three times?
They where
Isabel
Allen

[Anonymous]

Isabel hit Cat5 twice I thought.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Isabel only hit cat 5 twice.

[Brent]

Doctor... are you evacuating?

[southerngale]

Knock it off

Knock what off?