Ivan Advisories

[Frank P]

wxman57

A source on Central Florida Hurricane Center web site, who has some type of access to the FSU SE (he's either a student or met grad I think), and is well respected on the board, stated either last night or Friday night the FSU SE has NEVER been west of Pensacola.... and was quite adament about it... that's why I'm interested on Gumm's comment as it reflect quite a change in the forecast from what we were hearing on CFHC...

thanks

[Frank P]

thanks Alicia w

[caneman]

At 2:00 the system was at 19.1 and 82.1 it is now at 19.5 and 82.6. I believe it has also slowed to 6 mph. This is not a wobble folks it is a 5 hour trend. Would like other opinions. Please verify with your own coordinates and estimate current position. I believe this to be correct. We will see at 8:00.

[Agua]

John Gumm just said the FSU S.E. has shifted to Biloxi. He says he thinks the track should be shifted further West of the models. He is a bit nervous.

We are all below sea level but Levee's protect us from Flood Waters. Outside the flood protection levee's all it takes is 1-2 foot above normal tides to flood that area.

TS Zach, was Gumm's comment about the FSU on air or in print, and if in print do you have a link to it???

thanks

I believe that the quote about the FSU SE was made a few days ago, not today. Far as I know, only the folks at FSU and the NHC have access to that model.

Here's the thread with the Biloxi reference made by Mr Gumm:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44355

That was posted this afternoon?

[wabbitoid]

It could hit anywhere, I think we all agree. But some places take a lot longer than others to evacuate -- and I think N'awlins is the longest and most urgent of all of them. They have to get started at the first sign of a monster loose in the Gulf, IMHO.

[chris_fit]

I concur. Getting more northely as well

[AL Chili Pepper]

OK...now I can agree with you. Still looks WNW, but with a more north component than it's had in a while.

[WeatherNLU]

Few comments........

1) Ivan was at 19.2 82.1, not 19.1.

2) That said, I do agree that there seems to be a slight movement more to the north than there has been.

3) This has happened several times, it moves north and then west and then WNW. It's been stair-stepping the whole time, and with that kind of movement you cannot say "the turn" has started. You have to give it more time.

P.S. I know you didn't say about "the turn".

[Brent]

LOL!!!

I don't care what you vote on as long as you spare us the agony of not being able to count.

[Derek Ortt]

last image shows another wobble back to the left and significantly more organization. Probable cat 5 again

[Chilly_Water]

Another e-mail update from my Caymanian friend's brother in Texas. My friends stayed in L'Ambience subdivision in Georgetown:

My first call of the morning was a relatively positive one and both C and D and R and L had weathered the evening and early morning in one piece and that damage to their apartments was negligable.

Mid morning was a diferent story as they began to feel the brunt of Ivan's winds and rain.

R and L had a window blown in and had to deal with the results of that. How they managed I don't know as I have not spoken directly with them however C has ben in contact with them and from his accounts, they are doing relatively well.

C and D's apartment has been flooded with water and sewage and it its worst was waist deep on the ground floor (of two). Getting updates as the water was rising and not knowing when it would stop was one of the worst experiences of my life as both C and D were very anxious and were seriously reviewing options if they were forced from their second floor. I can only imagine how they felt. By the grace of God the water stopped rising and they were out of immediate danger. Now we have to get them out of their apartment as health issues will start to become a factor. When the winds and rains further subside that will be something we have to take care of.

As for our parents' place, we do not know how that did as they are off island at the moment. When the guys can get out they can let us know.

I hope that this finds everyone safe. Take care and I will be in touch tomorrow morning.

A

[canegrl04]

Only difference a turn to NW would mean in the short term is from which angle Ivan enters the YC

[Guest]

Time Date Lat Long Winds Pressure Intensity

03 GMT 09/12/04 18.3N 80.0W 165 910 Category 5 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/12/04 18.6N 80.8W 155 918 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/12/04 19.0N 81.5W 155 919 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/12/04 19.3N 82.5W 150 916 Category 4 Hurricane


here are todays coordinates, WNW, but NW will eventually come, followed eventually by north, then it's all the way to the moon Alice.

[Air Force Met]

At 2:00 the system was at 19.1 and 82.1 it is now at 19.5 and 82.6. I believe it has also slowed to 6 mph. This is not a wobble folks it is a 5 hour trend. Would like other opinions. Please verify with your own coordinates and estimate current position. I believe this to be correct. We will see at 8:00.

This 5 hour trend has occured before...like on Friday. You have to look a lot longer than 5 hours. Ivan has been stair stepping. OVe the last 2 hours on the GHCC...it has moved at 295 since 20z. PLus...as derek pointed out...movement over last hour has been at about 275-280.

[frederic79]

Actually...
2PM position: 19.2N, 82.1W
5PM position: 19.3N, 82.5W .1 degree north, .4 degree west

[FritzPaul]

It seems that when he's at cat. 5 status, then Ivan likes to go more W or WWNW.

[caneman]

Actually...
2PM position: 19.2N, 82.1W
5PM position: 19.3N, 82.5W .1 degree north, .4 degree west

ANd now at 19.5 82.7. ONly 2 hours I know but isn't that also only 12 to 14 miles. 6 or 7 miles an hour?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Only difference a turn to NW would mean in the short term is from which angle Ivan enters the YC

I did a close-up, and yeah...it still looks like it'll hit the YC if it stays on this heading.

[~SirCane]

Yep-Ivan will should go NW for a while and then head NNW, N, and then possible NNE near landfall.

[Stormsfury]

It seems that when he's at cat. 5 status, then Ivan likes to go more W or WWNW.

More specifically, Ivan has been on intensification trends during the evening and nighttime hours, while with more of a westerly component, and during the day, more WNW/NW in the levelling/weakening phases (during the ERC's) ...

SF