MS Valley trough lifting out

[MGC]

Well, the trough that came down has stalled and begun to lift out. Looks like this will open the door for Ivan to head into the northern Gulf Coast. Good news is the shear. There is considerable shear in the northern GOM. I am confident the shear will cause some weaking of Ivan. Just how much though? As the models shift futher west my concern grows. I don't want to spend another week or two without power......

[lilbump3000]

I notice this trough was starting to lift out earlier today.

[debbiet]

Based on previous threads/discussion info, I thought that the shear was no longer going to be a problem for Ivan. Has something changed?

[NateFLA]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Define "lifting out"

I see southward progress, but moisture penetrating up into the dry air... dunno what to make of it.

[MGC]

"lifting out" the trough has reached its southern extreme and has started to move back north......MGC

[calidoug]

It may be... it's at least not digging further at this point.

However, there also appears to be very little if anything left of the ridging over Florida and the NE Gulf.

Check out this loop:

(Select WV in the drop down, and then click inside the large yellow box on the right under Goes E)

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[lilbump3000]

But with this trough lifting out that should make way for the high to start building back in.

[calidoug]

Well, there's a high W of it...

But, the trough appears (and I believe is forecast?) to sort of slide E as it goes, rather than just lift out.

If Ivan's outflow connects with the trough, I'm not sure you'll get a ridge building back over the NE gulf any time soon...

What do the global models show?

18Z GFS, for example, doesn't see a ridge rebuilding in the NE Gulf:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_s.shtml

[lilbump3000]

Well there might not be one but the GFS is just as blind as an old person. But anyway whocares i just want this thing to be over with.