Ivan Advisories

[Stormsfury]

Thanks, yoda ...

Interestingly enough, Ivan just let loose a huge arc cloud on the NW quadrant and a large squall has resulted well away from the TC ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sky Summit, did you get any kind of feelings as where your family or other people think Ivan might head to?

[Coldfront]

Please don't flame me:

Do you all really think it'll hit as a Cat 4 or Cat 5? I remember a few years ago when a Cat 4 was heading for N.O., but it faded to a Cat 2 right before landfall. Do you think something similar could happen with Ivan?

[drezee]

500
URNT12 KNHC 122359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/2359Z
B. 19 DEG 28 MIN N
82 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2352 M
D. 110 KT
E. 283 DEG 10 NM
F. 026 DEG 155 KT
G. 287 DEG 018 NM
H. 916 MB
I. 13 C/ 3103 M
J. 19 C/ 3084 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO17-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/5 NM
P. AF977 2709A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 2339Z.
LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN SW EYEWALL.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 122359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/2359Z
B. 19 DEG 28 MIN N
   82 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2352 M
D. 110 KT
E. 283 DEG 10 NM
F. 026 DEG 155 KT
G. 287 DEG 018 NM
H. 916 MB
I. 13 C/ 3103 M
J. 19 C/ 3084 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO17-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/5 NM
P. AF977 2709A IVAN OB 06
   MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 2339Z.
   LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN SW EYEWALL.

What does that means about the lighting seen?.


[bsuwx]

the media makes it very easy to be nervous about hurricanes in nola.
advisory information is scrolled across the bottom of all local news stations 24 hrs a day, even when hurricanes are far off in the atlantic.

i'm back in indiana now, but i don't like the thought of a hurricane in my former tromping grounds.

[Matthew5]

That normally means that the hurricane is getting stronger!

[cycloneye]

Yes I suspect that.

[opera ghost]

Looks like the new eyewall is taking over- drop in pressure, lightning in eyewall- wind speed is picking up...

Bad day to be in Ivan's path.

[Anonymous]

Or he has dry air in him, but I dont see any evidence of that so....

[marc21688]

Isn't it rare to see lightning in a hurricane? When Charley made landfall I could of swore Jim Cantore said that.

[Pebbles]

Cat 5 winds...rounds down to 161mph at surface..someone double check my numbers though

[tampastorm]

155 KT! isnt that in the 170 MPH range?! also is that at the surface?

[skysummit]

Well, of course, my parents feel like it's going to hit SE La. They feel they're due for it since the last hurricane that hit was Andrew, and before that, the last direct hit was Betsy in 1965 which destroyed their home. My father did mention that if Ivan continued to move west and then made a turn toward the La coast, some parishes of deep south La. would beginning sandbagging immediately.

As for hitting as a CAT 4 or 5, I think a 4 is more than possible for the Central to Western gulfcoast, but a 5...well, it would just have to be perfect conditions.

[cajungal]

I just came back from my parents home in Lockport, La. (about 50 miles south of N.O.) I have to say, people are beginning to get extremely nervous down there and they have the right to. If a CAT 4 or 5 would hit SE La., the coastline would then begin around the NOLA area, and not along Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemine Parishes.

You are scaring me! I live in Terrebonne Parish.

[FritzPaul]

Please don't flame me:

Do you all really think it'll hit as a Cat 4 or Cat 5? I remember a few years ago when a Cat 4 was heading for N.O., but it faded to a Cat 2 right before landfall. Do you think something similar could happen with Ivan?

That was Lily, but she was in the middle of Oct. when SST's in the northern gulf were a lot lower.

[Brent]

No... 155 kt at flight level. Using the 90% reduction it translates to 140 kt at the surface which is 160 mph.

[goodlife]

That's my biggest concern with a SE LA hit from a strong storm....it would dramatically change our coastline...we'd have to have a new map...I'm not kidding...Grand Isle would probably cease to exist...Cocodrie too...Houma might be the new coast...that would be terrible..

[Derek Ortt]

with Hurricane Javier that is. This storm is almost certain to be a major hurricane that will devastate parts of the WC of mexico.

Have done a forecast on it for those interested

http://www.nwhhc.com/epac132004forecast.html
http://www.nwhhc.com/epac132004graphics.html

[cycloneye]

Folks we have a cat 5 once again.