Ivan Advisories

[Matthew5]

So its a cat5 again. In wait intill that outer eyewall starts tighting up!!!!

[tampastorm]

Ok thanks

[Stormsfury]

Lightning visible in the eyewall means that the instability in the eyewall was great enough to create cloud tops tall enough for ice crystalization to occur, hence, updrafts are very, very strong ... normally, the inner core of a hurricane does not produce lightning at all, and maybe only a couple of strikes per hour ...

Lightning inside the eyewall also can be the precursor (and generally is) to another rapid intensification cycle is about to take place, and in Ivan's case, the last time Ivan reached CAT 5, there was frequent lightning observed in the eyewall ... so basically, here we go again ...

SF

[debbiet]

During Frances someone on this board said the lightning reported was due to dryer air inside the hurricane.

[Hurricanehink]

Could this be similar to Kenna in 2002? Is it possible it will recurve back to the coast?

The tropics never rest...

[Steve Cosby]

Isn't it rare to see lightning in a hurricane? When Charley made landfall I could of swore Jim Cantore said that.

Lightning is associated with deepening.

(of course I can't find the proof link right now)

[Brent]

Could this be similar to Kenna in 2002? Is it possible it will recurve back to the coast?

NHC track has it just SE of Cabo San Lucas as a Cat 3 at the end of the forecast period, moving slowly NW.

[nolastorm]

think it is way to early to be saying New Orleans - let's see what it looks like tomorrow but we all should be thinking and preparing nevertheless!

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, Cat. 5 again! Of course, it could be stronger in the NE quad. When will they get there?

[Coldfront]

Please don't flame me:

Do you all really think it'll hit as a Cat 4 or Cat 5? I remember a few years ago when a Cat 4 was heading for N.O., but it faded to a Cat 2 right before landfall. Do you think something similar could happen with Ivan?

That was Lily, but she was in the middle of Oct. when SST's in the northern gulf were a lot lower.

FritzPaul,

Thank you for the info! I couldn't remember what month the storm had hit, just remembering that there had been a close call before.

[Matthew5]

Looks like the Eastern Pacific is getting in the Game!

[marc21688]

Oh ok, Thanks.

[Stormsfury]

During Frances someone on this board said the lightning reported was due to dryer air inside the hurricane.

In Frances' case, yes, this is very true, but also, that same dry air entrainment also kept Frances down below major hurricane status before landfall ... and a bit of a different scenario than Ivan is currently undergoing ...

SF

[Anonymous]

It looks pretty bad on IR for a 160 mph storm, I dont want to see it's strentgh once it completely finishes this ERC.

[Stephanie]

Yeah, sorry to all of you for the continued focus on New Orleans on this board. We in New Orleans are terrorized all year long with local media and public service announcements telling us how vulnerable we are here. People are getting nervous here. So, don't be suprised if you see a lot of new people on here asking questions about a N.O. landfall. Thanks for all of your opinions by the way.

That is quite understandable!

[Derek Ortt]

this easily could be as strong as Kenna

one thing that may be overlooked, if this does become a major and Ivan drifts a bit too far to the west, shear city due to the outflow from Javier

[Hurricanehink]

NRL says it is official.

20040913.0015.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.09LIVAN.140kts-915mb-195N-828W.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

Outer bands of Ivan coming into range.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[Francis Joseph]

Don't hurricanes normally strengthen during the day and weaken at night? Ivan seems to break all the rules.

[skysummit]

I just came back from my parents home in Lockport, La. (about 50 miles south of N.O.) I have to say, people are beginning to get extremely nervous down there and they have the right to. If a CAT 4 or 5 would hit SE La., the coastline would then begin around the NOLA area, and not along Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemine Parishes.

You are scaring me! I live in Terrebonne Parish.

I don't mean to scare you, I live in Lafourche, but currently just north of P.C. Florida. We all seen the videos of "the worse case scenario". I'm just afraid this may be it. People around NOLA, and in SE La., should begin preparing now.