Ivan Advisories

[hla97]

It should be passing by me soon then too! My mom said a lady on The news said they told the Florida ppl not to worry its coming here. Its just scary because the Weather Channel is like they won't tell the truth!

[JQ Public]

interesting question...just bumping it up so someone will answer it

[Guest]

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

That puts me in the E. Quad. if that were to verify.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Hey Bill. It's easier to see in this loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=wv

The thing to watch is that vortex moving through TN at this time.
<My opionion only> If it lifts out, Central Gulf Coast. If it digs the trough any, NE Gulf Coast.

[BigO]

We'll decide midday tomorrow.

[LowMug]

The watches being issued for the Yucatan Peninsula is now indicative of the overall westward movement and uncertainty especially since the tip doesn't even fall in the "cone." I am beginning to become alarmed at the NHC's complacency to acknowledge that points further west than the panhandle along the north central Gulf Coast could be affected. Furthermore, there has been very little reasoning as to why they are forecasting on the eastern side of the guidance...

Any insights...

[c5Camille]

When does the next Orrt Report come out?

[MGC]

The inner eye has expanded from 14NM to 17NM. Recon did find higher FL wind of 155KT vrs 132KT while the pressure remained the same. Might get upgraded back to Cat 5 in 11pm advisory.....MGC

[Guest]

Gary is usually right on, have been following his forecast for 8 years.

[Pasco]

BillC, I'm not ready to say the track will or should shift east but I do see what you are saying. If you look at the latest water vapor image Ivan is becoming flattened out on the nw side, and there has definitely been a more northwesterly component to its movement over the last several hours. Looking at the water vapor image it looks like there is a slot for a northward turn just to the east of 85w. i'm not an expert by any means so I don't really know what all of this means, and the possible implications. But I will be keeping my shutters on the windows until this monster figures out where it wants to go.

[Hurrilurker]

I really think they are worried about this storm, are having a hard time forecasting it, and are looking for any excuse not to panic people yet (especially since I don't believe they have any idea where it'll land). I could be wrong, but the longer they promote these left-field notions of track and weakening that don't pan out, the more I'm suspicious.

[Brent]

YIKES!!!!

[LAwxrgal]

Too close for comfort.

[calidoug]

Yes, my insight is this: The NHC is vastly more qualified than you are, so stop bashing them.

[Agua]

Great. Just great.

[rtd2]

believe you all are jumping to conclusions to think this storm is going to new orleans. the tropical model suite would have to be off by hundreds of miles and that is not likely.







ROFLMAO The models have been worthless on ridge/trough strength this year prompting NHC to advertise or put a cya disclaimer on their 5 day forecast thats no good! N.O. TO P'COLA! thats mt track and I'm sticking to it!

[freeport_texas2005]

If they are..They aint acting like it..its moving west and they r still dead set on fl..come on man...

[LowMug]

Yes, my insight is this: The NHC is vastly more qualified than you are, so stop bashing them.

My insight is this you.....nobody is bashing them and I know they are more qualified than I am and you for that matter...why or how could you even consider being offensive...are you 12 or are you maybe 14

Do you own a house...do you have a family...do you live remotely near a predominant storm surge area...etc...

Get off my back...or call me if you want the number...and we can talk about it...extremely offended by your comment since I am particularly always the one praising the NHC...

NOW SAY SOMETHING!!!

[B-Bear]

IN the NHC 5:00 discussion there was no talk of shear in the gulf like they've mentioned in the 5-6 previous advisories. Now they mention something very interesting, upwelling. That has never been talked about before now. I find it very interesting that suddenly there is no shear, but the water temps are now the issue. All along I've understood that upwelling would only occur where the storm sat for a long time and mixed up the deeper, cooler waters. I understand the SST's in the Gulf is a non issue, i.e. they are plenty warm. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

Here's how I understand it.

Upwelling will only occur if a hurricane is either stalled or moving at such a slow rate of speed that it allows water to pile up in front of it. Ivan is forecast to do neither of these things. Regarding the SSTs, I learned there are actually 2 factors--the SSTs and the heat content. SSTs are a measure of the surface temperature of the water, and the hurricane will build from that heat. The "heat content" is measure of the depth of the heat in the water. So with a high heat content, a hurricane might be more likely to maintain its intensity even with upwelling, since the water being churned up would likewise be warm. In the GOM there are very high SSTs, but the heat content is not generally that high. So if upwelling occurs, it might indeed affect Ivan's intensity. But that would only become a factor if he stalled or was moving very slow, and he's forecast to do neither.

I tend to agree with the previous poster's assessment. There is a monster hurricane about to emerge into the GOM and there are no predominant weather systems to definitively steer him. So the NHC sees that they have an out-of-control scenario on their hands and they are simply trying to keep people from panicking.

[TampaFl]

I agree110% Pasco. I to have noticed the "Flattened" on the nw side also. Almost looks as though Ivan is starting to "point" as they say (an indication of a change in direction, in this case, nw to n turn?). I too am leaving my hurricane panels up as I still have a rather bad feeling that once Ivan gets into the Gulf, he may, and I stress "may" turn to the nne to ne and head for the West Coast/nature Coast. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert