Ivan Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


have to make yet another leftward shift

[hial2]

Was the Yucatan watch issued by the NHC or the Mexican government?..There's probably the answer to your question

[RonStallcup]

In Pensacola, I'm moving stuff and wrapping them in plastic.

It's taking longer than I thought.
Car has gas. Got food/water. Got money, but will get more.
All Laundry and dishes to be washed later to night.
Got plenty of sunblock for the sun afterwards.


God has given us many chances, may be we will get one more.

[marc21688]

Why is everyone except the NHC shifting leftward, lol, seems weird to me.

[Matthew5]

Information has comed in it is now a cat5!

[ColdFront77]

There has been a SW to NE / W to E flow in the west-central and central Gulf of Mexico since yesterday. A shortwave
trough has moved out of the Midwest to the southeastern states and the ridge to the northeast of Ivan showing signs
of breaking down.

The latest model runs appear to be taking this 18 to 30 hour (especially 6 to 12 hour) development into acoount now.

I noticed the convection orientation go from WNW/ESE to more NW/SE, if not even a bit N/S.

[Agua]

Actually, LowMug, the 8 p.m. Advisory menioned that interests along the eastern and central gulf coast should closely monitor this storm.

[LAwxrgal]

This storm was supposed to turn 2 days ago. My thinking is whenever this turn takes place is south of where the hurricane will hit. Also, the turn will not happen quickly, instead it will be gradual.

[c5Camille]

Why is everyone except the NHC shifting leftward, lol, seems weird to me.

CYA...

if it moved left anymore... Tampa falls out of the cone...

[FritzPaul]

Was the Yucatan watch issued by the NHC or the Mexican government?..There's probably the answer to your question

Mexican gov.

[Windsong]

Lowmug, don't take it personal. Calidoug is having a bully moment. Seeing his screen name is CALI, I would guess California. If that is the case, he has no stake in the outcome. Your question is legitimate.

[wxfreak]

Hey guys...after getting hit with lily and izzy in the mandeville area two years ago...my wife and I got tired of all of the storms! For about 3 weeks, I didn't even move the sandbags. Anyone familar with the area would remember that Donz on the lake became Donz in the lake two times!

Anyway...I hope you all stay safe and that this storm fizzles before it hits anywhere. And if it heads towards the big easy, it really wouldn't be a bad idea to get the heck out of dodge. We now live in the chattanooga area and don't worry about hurricanes anymore...just flooding

[crabbyhermit]

FOX news just interviewed a weather guy with the NO weather service (or something) about what would happen with the storm here. The moral of the story: i think attention is shifting like the track, away from the Keys and toward the north GOM, incl. NOLA.

[Brent]

[skysummit]

I see nothing wrong with discussing New Orleans as a possible target. If anything, it'll get people around here to start paying attention. Too early to start talking about New Orleans, you say? Just read this quote from the article posted in this thread earlier....
"Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross."

In my book, we SHOULD be talking about New Orleans. It might save lives.

I agree. Even if Ivan doesn't come close to New Orleans, it is excellent to discuss the possibilities. IMO, New Orleans would experience the most devistation of any city along the coast. Being 6 feet below sea level, the flooding would be catastrophic.

[marc21688]

Then they should enlarge the cone to include places farther west. I mean i understand why they are keeping Tampa in the cone but come on, Shouldn't places farther west know there is a possibility this storm can head for there area?

[LowMug]

Was the Yucatan watch issued by the NHC or the Mexican government?..There's probably the answer to your question

Does that really answer the question...does it matter who issued the watches...the watches were issued because there is now a threat further west...of course it was not the NHC - it was the Mexican Government...

So if the threat is further west as the Mexican Gov't feels (maybe their meteorologist is Hurricanelover) why is their not a more in depth explanation...

I am not bashing the NHC, nor will I ever, however they are being a bit nebulous with their discussions as of late given the magnitude of uncertainty...

[tronbunny]

If it's all running so far left, why haven't I heard the All clear for the Keys?
Maybe I just haven't been looking in the right places.

[skysummit]

Information has comed in it is now a cat5!

Link please.

[Derek Ortt]

I saw the recon info, Matt, and I discussed it there. Please re-read the discussion before just repeating what others say. I am well aware of the FL profiles and based upon the height of the drop, this 135KT is also on the generous side


Graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html