Ivan Advisories

[warlock_xp]

i tend to agree with gary after reviewing the upper level lows and the surrounding highs it seems only logical for ivan to blow in to biloxi, ms. my estimates put ivan coming at 0900 pm thursday.

[logybogy]

So what is the worst case scenario for NO? Having the storm hit just east of New Orleans as far as flooding?

[tallbunch]

then NE to still strike FL?

[cvalkan4]

Derek -- if the 700 mb level is lower (closer to the surface) than usual, wouldn't that mean that there should be *less* than the usual reduction to get the surface winds? Sorry if I'm just confused and this is a dumb thing to ask!

[calidoug]

"I am beginning to become alarmed at the NHC's complacency to acknowledge that "

That isn't bashing?

Funny, it sure sounds like it.

[skysummit]

I see nothing wrong with discussing New Orleans as a possible target. If anything, it'll get people around here to start paying attention. Too early to start talking about New Orleans, you say? Just read this quote from the article posted in this thread earlier....
"Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross."

In my book, we SHOULD be talking about New Orleans. It might save lives.

yeah it would actually save lives if it was going to new orleans. look most of the people that are talking new orleans dont know much of what they are talking about, its as simple as that. they seem to think that just because its a little further west now that all of a sudden that throws the entire forecast beyond 48-60 hours out the window, completely ignoring all the other facters effecting the track of this hurricane. think about this for one moment, IF there was a real chance of it heading toward new orleans, dont you think the NHC would be saying something about it? CMON..but you go ahead and talk about new orleans.....

What is WDSU's Dan Milham saying? Is he still preaching about the magical force field that protects NOLA from hurricanes?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I still believe that Ivan will be weaker, though, when the system reaches the North Central Gulf of Mexico.

[LSUChamps0002]

Im asking if the area, when looking at the goes, inside the bright white, will indeed be the larger, new eye. Clickon the center of the storm in address below

If you want to add the sarcasm go ahead, but it seems like a reasonable question to me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Sean in New Orleans]

Worst case---moving up the Mississippi River (not because of flooding from the river, but, that angle is the worst for tidal reasons).

[Innotech]

Ivan goes wherever the bloody hell he wants to.

[Air Force Met]

LOL that would be the biggest eye in history then..

There was a typhoon a couple of years ago that was annular...and had an eye almost 120 miles in diameter. It was HUUUGE.

[Stormchaser16]

LOL NO that whole thing will not clear out and be the new eye...... no sarcasm.....

The eyewall will continue to contract inwards during the night and you will see pressures drop and then more strengthening,

[LAwxrgal]

Yep, anything's possible at this point. These storms do whatever they want, just keep watching.

[x-y-no]

Im asking if the area, when looking at the goes, inside the bright white, will indeed be the larger, new eye. Clickon the center of the storm in address below

If you want to add the sarcasm go ahead, but it seems like a reasonable question to me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Perfectly reasonable question.

Here's another view:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/09L.IVAN/ssmi/ir1km/LATEST.jpg

Looks like initially the new eye will be something between 40 and 50 NM.

Maybe a little smaller than 40. Will contract though.

[rainstorm]

good forecast.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

That's my biggest concern with a SE LA hit from a strong storm....it would dramatically change our coastline...we'd have to have a new map...I'm not kidding...Grand Isle would probably cease to exist...Cocodrie too...Houma might be the new coast...that would be terrible..

I would say: Fishermen will be shrimping where my house stands now.

[skysummit]

So what is the worst case scenario for NO? Having the storm hit just east of New Orleans as far as flooding?

The worst case would be the eye riding up the Mississippi River, or even landfall at Grand Isle and riding up Lafourche Parish.

[Guest]

at some point it will. you can bank it.

[BayouVenteux]

Worst case is a track from the se and ese of NO. THis won't happen in this case. Obviously...the best track is east of them.

True AF, but even a landfall well to the east can cause significant problems in areas of metro New Orleans, particularly around Lake Pontchartrain. When Georges came ashore in Mississippi in '98, there was a lot of wave and water damage along the south shore. Homes and businesses had extensive damage due to the water pushed in from the E, NE and N winds on the storm's weak side.

[dennis1x1]

just east would be a good scenario..not bad....hitting just sw while moving nw is the worst....