Ivan Advisories

[dennis1x1]

let me guess..."jeff" wants them to use the 1 model that has Ivan coming to New Orleans to base all their forecasts on?

local media mets......sigh.

[alicia-w]

No links or graphics?

[baygirl_1]

Dixiebreeze--
Interesting read... scary, but interesting. Where did you get it?

[Guest]

no...min central pressure is min central pressure...not in different quadrants.....all taken in the center.

what I was saying is they make several different passes to gain fixes and get an accurate pressure reading.

[HurryKane]

let me guess..."jeff" wants them to use the 1 model that has Ivan coming to New Orleans to base all their forecasts on?

local media mets......sigh.

He did stress what could happen if Ivan went west of Cuba. And I'm fine with him saying the models are west of the NHC track. But he ranted about it for a good two to three minutes. If the uninformed then think the NHC forecast is *complete* bunk, that's bad news. He also never mentioned (that I heard) that the forecast is actually accompanied by a cone and that said cone envelops the model spread he showed. Not cool.

[lilbump3000]

He was not saying that he wanted it to be by new orleans, but that with all the models the national hurricane center is well to the east of most of them. Now if you were watching him you would know. All the model lines he showed, if you average them out the track will come to be somewere along the alabama coast.

[zoeyann]

actually dennis1x1 Jeff Baskin said that what they usually do is take an adverage of the models, but in this case the NHC has the forecast track on the extreme east side of the models. He explained what was going on with the models and track, but did not say much on any particular model.

[LSUChamps0002]

Fox is basically saying that if it goes over the western end of the channel, then we have a greater chance of it coming in this direction.

They did not say they would order evacs tomorrow, but people need to be prepared. There are very few routes of of here (New Orleans) and you cannot get a million people out of southeastern louisiana in 1 day without some major problems.

Who knows what it will be tomorrow, but if it misses cuba, then I believe they will start the voluntarty evacs very soon.

Just my opinion. I left for Georges and it is not simple here.

We will see.

[warlock_xp]

i have been reviewing and reviewing... how will ivan weaken when i gets in the gulf? i can only imagine that it would feed of the warmer waters of the gulf... guess it all depends on the conditions after it passes cuba, could the storm be so unstable that the mountains in western cuba knock it down a cat or 2?

[cycloneye]

Dixie a link for that informaton.

[HollynLA]

let me guess..."jeff" wants them to use the 1 model that has Ivan coming to New Orleans to base all their forecasts on?

local media mets......sigh.

No, he showed how the NHC track in correlation to the models puts the NHC track to the extreme right. He showed several senerios for the storm. This is a possible threat to NO, what do you expect them to tell us, now to worry about it?

[zoeyann]

sorry lilbump you beat me to the post, did not mean to step on your toes

[goodlife]

let me guess..."jeff" wants them to use the 1 model that has Ivan coming to New Orleans to base all their forecasts on?

local media mets......sigh.

No...he doesn't..not at all.He was making the point that the NHC usually takes an average of all the models to base their track on but in this case...their track is to the right of all the models....

What's with your attitude anyway?

[cajungal]

Now, that Ivan has changed a little, let's see everyone's new guesses on where he will go!

[cvalkan4]

Hmmm - I would have thought just the opposite. Since the measurement is closer to the surface than usual, then surface wind should be more than 90% of flight level. Or is it because there is a larger vertical wind gradient in more powerful storms?

[LSU2001]

as far as i know there are no mountains in western cuba.

[dixiebreeze]

Here's the link:

http://www.pbrla.com/HURR04/Ivan.html

[MBismyPlayground]

Can't I just vote for none of the above??? There has been entirely too much arguing in re: to each persons individual opinons. I have noticed that tempers are very short. By the end of this the whole gulf coast will be evacuated and the amount of cost to the general public will be just as high as if the hurricane hit each individual area.

[c5Camille]

Advisory
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

5 day forcast
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00409.html

Discussion
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html


track remained the same...

[lilbump3000]

A Cat. 5 with no visible eye, well thats strange. This most likely the first.