Ivan Advisories

[adelphi_sky]

So I guess the worst time for this to hit land would be at night. It seems it always intensifies at night and weakens during the day. OF course Charley intensified right before landfall during the day.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One thing of note about probabilities is that the 11PM forecast track shows Ivna at about 22/23n 85w on Mon. In order for that to happen he needs to move almost due north as of now. Looking at loops he is jogging west. Looks like probabilities will go up some more for LA in morning

[Anonymous]

Not the next vortex, the vortex at about 6 AM should be impressive.

[dhweather]

Ivanova - the storm is not affected by the black spots. The black spots are a result of Ivan - they indicate VERY strong thunderstorms in the storm.

[jimbo]

Ivan is the biggest boy in the tub right now and is gonna splash the water any which way he wants.

Amen to that.

[jimbo]

Ivan is the biggest boy in the tub right now and is gonna splash the water any which way he wants.

Amen to that.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Pensacola and Appalachicola are high percentage for Wed.:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... trike.html

[lilbump3000]

I dont see how its going to happen as well. There still with every track they put out has the system automatically starting a NW motion and that is just not happening and to me not showing signs of happening no time soon.

[calidoug]

It's in ideal conditions. 90 degree water, no shear.

[FritzPaul]

So, New Orleans is the same.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Tropical storm warnings in the Gulf.

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... gmz084.txt

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just saw on local news that our local weather guy here in Baton Rouge thinks same thing. He put up projected path map and said it is already past the western edge of it and still moving WNW

[Ivanova]

Ivanova - the storm is not affected by the black spots. The black spots
are a result of Ivan - they indicate VERY strong thunderstorms in the
storm.

What I meant to ask... what do these black spots tell us overall
about Ivan... do all hurricanes develop such intense thunderstorms ??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Fritz, I agree. Ivan is still moving wnw/wwnw and by the morning the South LA area will be in higher %'s. Have not got a good feeling about this storm. Seems to do whst he wants, how he wants

[lilbump3000]

I think the NHC takes the models to seriously. For one if they can use there own knowledge they might get somewere.

[Brent]

Ivanova - the storm is not affected by the black spots. The black spots
are a result of Ivan - they indicate VERY strong thunderstorms in the
storm.

What I meant to ask... what do these black spots tell us overall
about Ivan... do all hurricanes develop such intense thunderstorms ??

No... only the most intense hurricanes do.

[opera ghost]

Ivanova- No ont all of them do. Some hurricanes have trouble wrapping the red around the center. It's an indication of how strong Ivan is

[Brent]

i have been reviewing and reviewing... how will ivan weaken when i gets in the gulf? i can only imagine that it would feed of the warmer waters of the gulf... guess it all depends on the conditions after it passes cuba, could the storm be so unstable that the mountains in western cuba knock it down a cat or 2?

Shear is forecast to develop.

Cuba won't weaken it much at all(5-10 mph).

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've heard of Gary Gray....who's William Gray?

BTW....good forecasting so far Derek Ortt.

[cccmachine]

All I can say is: whoever it was in here that predicted that this year's Big Storm would be Ivan...

GOOD CALL!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42779