Significant Disc comment

[Scott_inVA]

COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN INCREASE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST BUT IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK...AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH

Some things to keep in mind:

1. Miss trof and the Ridge are at the OK Corral. Doing the maps and spending alot of time with each SREF update, my opinion is the GFDL seems to have the idea where Ivan will be along the coast. In watching the SREF one sees hints of a shift in the jet stream...as Pasch notes...that's likely outflow. After the headaches, the double vision and hours of Springsteen to stay awake, the GFDL (since Sat morning) takes the TC along a logical track. At least for now.

2. At 48 hours...diversity ain't good. When one ponders a Cat-5 just 72 hours out with a legitimate window from NOLA to Tampa, one should be very wary. I believe Mobile to Destin is reasonable, but this is far from over and no one should discount the danger.

3. Lost in all this speculation is what's coming this weekend. Now living inland, I devote as much time to interior flooding as coastal landfall. I am concerned many, many people do not comprehend what probably is coming...be it a 5, 4 or a 3 (ain't gonna be a 5, probably not a 4). But the svr wx and rain will come regardless of NOLA or Panama City.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[redfisher]

Scott..........assuming a panhandle landfall, regardless of the exact location, will Coastal SC feel any affects from Ivan?

Thanks!

[Scott_inVA]

Scott..........assuming a panhandle landfall, regardless of the exact location, will Coastal SC feel any affects from Ivan?

Thanks!

Yes.
Pretty good chop and feeder bands would be my guess.
There will be no shortage of svr wx from landfall up through the Mid-Atlantic.

Scott

[Sean in New Orleans]

No doubt---there will likely, unfortunately, be more deaths in the interior parts of the US with this system from massive flooding than the location of the actual landfall, IMO.