If I Lived in New Orleans...

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:14 am

I have completely unplugged from this hurricane today...going a record 18 straight hours looking at only one or two loops all day. This was intentional...I wanted to get out from the forrest to see the trees...during a time when I could without worrying about people I know here in the states.

After somewhat plugging back in...and I will not be fully in line with this storm again until tomorrow...I am growing increasingly concerned for friends along the LA coast...specifically New Orleans.

The most recent 0Z NOGAPS model puts a very close to direct strike there...and although the GFS is east of there...I would bet it will once again become a right-of-track-outlier.

It is impossible to know for sure exactly where this hurricane will go...but my thinking is 100 miles either side of New Orleans in 3 days or so.

If I lived in the BigEZ tonight...I would be reviewing my hurricane plan carefully and be prepared to act very soon.

Although a cat 5 is not expected...this will be a large and significant cat 3 or low end cat 4....and the hope is that it misses the largest population center and affects a sparcely populated area.

MW

Lindaloo · #2 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:16 am

New Orleans is already preparing to evacuate people outside of levee protection tomorrow. However, I am exactly 100 miles east of New Orleans.

#3 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:18 am

I am 30 miles W of New Orleans. :cry:

southerngale · #4 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:19 am

Dang, New Orleans would be a horrible place for a landfall.

#5 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:20 am

Lindaloo wrote:New Orleans is already preparing to evacuate people outside of levee protection tomorrow. However, I am exactly 100 miles east of New Orleans.

Hi Linda...

I am sure you have already reviewed your plan and are ready to act. If I were where you are...I would already be freezing as much ice as I could and have topped off fuel...water and food supplies.

We have a day...maybe two...but now would be a really good time to do everything you should have done at the start of the season.

MW

Lindaloo · #6 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:21 am

I am already finished.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:22 am

It sure would. What really worries me about a track towards NO is a warm eddy in the Gulf south of Louisiana and MS. I have to find the link again, but the maps of SST and heat content show this to be the warmest water in the whole Atlantic and Gulf. If the shear is light at that point, that could favor a significant blowup in intensity to the south of the Mississippi Delta region (much like Lili, but w/o the rapid weakening). I'm not going to have any fingernails left by the time this storm comes inland.

#8 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:22 am

I'm nearly finished.

Sean in New Orleans · #9 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:22 am

Word is spreading in New Orleans---I've been getting phone calls from alot of friends and family who know how closely I follow weather and inquiring about my thoughts and opinions. I do believe that after one more day, we will all be hearing and seeing massive action in the Greater New Orleans area if, at this time tomorrow, it still appears that New Orleans is looking this system in the eye (literally). One thing about living here is almost everyone keeps that one eye on all hurricanes as they approach the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone is aware and pretty much knows where it is and what direction it is going. Many I know are already make prelim plans such as where will vehicles go, stocking the houses, discussions on evacuating and where they will go, etc. I'm not overly worried tonight---in 24 to 36 hours, I may go into full hurricane mode for New Orleans and my home.

LMolineux · #10 Postby **LMolineux** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:23 am

This is what i called for on the 8th of Sept. And i kept this track since
http://www.theheadnut.com/tropical/ivancall6.gif

mobilebay · #11 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:23 am

MWatkins wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:New Orleans is already preparing to evacuate people outside of levee protection tomorrow. However, I am exactly 100 miles east of New Orleans.

Hi Linda...

I am sure you have already reviewed your plan and are ready to act. If I were where you are...I would already be freezing as much ice as I could and have topped off fuel...water and food supplies.

We have a day...maybe two...but now would be a really good time to do everything you should have done at the start of the season.

MW

Mike what do you think of the MObILE area?

#12 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:24 am

I'm getting my evacuation plans in order now. Packing things up, going to get the boat tomorrow from the mouth of the Mississippi River. I can read these models and I'm not waiting until it's too late!

#13 Postby **MSRobi911** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:25 am

Our boards are up, i did the wally world thing and just need to pack to leave. live to close to the gulf to stay here even though is a very strong brick house.

#14 Postby **gatorbabe79** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:27 am

How might this impact the offshore oil rigs?

#15 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:27 am

mobilebay wrote:
MWatkins wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:New Orleans is already preparing to evacuate people outside of levee protection tomorrow. However, I am exactly 100 miles east of New Orleans.

Hi Linda...

I am sure you have already reviewed your plan and are ready to act. If I were where you are...I would already be freezing as much ice as I could and have topped off fuel...water and food supplies.

We have a day...maybe two...but now would be a really good time to do everything you should have done at the start of the season.

MW

Mike what do you think of the MObILE area?

At this time MobileBay...there is no specific reason to think that I am correct with the 100 mile range on either side of NO....and you are clearly threatened as well. I would recommend that you take the same precautions listed above and hope for the best.

MW

#16 Postby **MSRobi911** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:28 am

Gator

they evacuated them yesterday

JTD · #17 Postby **JTD** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:29 am

Mike, I've been thinking, crazily, all day that this storm (given how it's been south and west of track all along) could just plow right into Mexico and not even affect CONUS...Could you go through the factors that would lead to this scenario....assess if they are likely or not....and also what do you think will turn this storm NW?

Thanks!

#18 Postby **MSRobi911** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:30 am

Mike

Just to let you know, Air_Force_Met thinks the same thing as you. The Big Easy to Mobile.....

mobilebay · #19 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:30 am

MWatkins wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
MWatkins wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:New Orleans is already preparing to evacuate people outside of levee protection tomorrow. However, I am exactly 100 miles east of New Orleans.

Hi Linda...

I am sure you have already reviewed your plan and are ready to act. If I were where you are...I would already be freezing as much ice as I could and have topped off fuel...water and food supplies.

We have a day...maybe two...but now would be a really good time to do everything you should have done at the start of the season.

MW

Mike what do you think of the MObILE area?

At this time MobileBay...there is no specific reason to think that I am correct with the 100 mile range on either side of NO....and you are clearly threatened as well. I would recommend that you take the same precautions listed above and hope for the best.

MW

Thanks mike.

Huckster · #20 Postby **Huckster** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:31 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:It sure would. What really worries me about a track towards NO is a warm eddy in the Gulf south of Louisiana and MS. I have to find the link again, but the maps of SST and heat content show this to be the warmest water in the whole Atlantic and Gulf. If the shear is light at that point, that could favor a significant blowup in intensity to the south of the Mississippi Delta region (much like Lili, but w/o the rapid weakening). I'm not going to have any fingernails left by the time this storm comes inland.

Purdue, I think this might be the link

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20040912.gif

This will give you a list of the last few days...

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/#watl

If I Lived in New Orleans...

If I Lived in New Orleans...

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