Ivan Advisories

WeatherNLU · #6901 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:52 am

Maybe I am tired, but the last coordinates were 19.5N 83.2W.

Again, I could be falling asleep, but that vortex has it at 19.81N 83.36W.

Either Ivan is wobbling back north, or the previous fix was bad.

#6902 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:54 am

It's completed an eyewall replacement cycle..lost it's inner eye...so not exactly surprised it may be 'off' just a tad

WeatherNLU · #6903 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:55 am

Pebbles wrote:It's completed an eyewall replacement cycle..lost it's inner eye...so not exactly surprised it may be 'off' just a tad

True, I forgot about that. It's tough during the eclipse to get a handle on what's going on.

#6904 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:55 am

I talked with my brother-in-law whom works for Shell in Norco. He said shell would start getting its people off the rigs as soon as they are shutdown.....MGC

dennis1x1 · #6905 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:56 am

not in eclipse tonight....goes 10 still sending pics.....same last night...

addictedfisher18 · #6906 Postby **addictedfisher18** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:57 am

Mobilebay, im from mobile as well its not looking good for us or anyone else, im only 18, ive never seen a hurricane, Im really looking forward to sticking this 1 out and seing just how amazing these storms really are

EarthStormFire · #6907 Postby **EarthStormFire** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:01 am

Since the winds are falling and the pressure is going up, does this mean the cane is weakening. So this is a good sign right.

WeatherNLU · #6908 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:01 am

The pressure is up a tad but the winds remain 160.

PTrackerLA · #6909 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:01 am

Well remember how big Isabel's eye was?

Southern4sure · #6910 Postby **Southern4sure** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:02 am

I's also from Mobile. I 11 rs old when Frederick hit. I will never go through another major hurricane again. I'm planning on evacuating. You should do the same. This is a very serious storm with lots of damage potential.

Southern4sure

addictedfisher18 · #6911 Postby **addictedfisher18** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:02 am

I dont know if this will happen i dont know much about hurricanes but im learning but here is a bit of info my buddy sent me.......
couple of interesting things about ivan. first if you notice it is kinda of stuck beneath the weak mid-level high to its north. now every forecast model makes it take a northwest and northward turn in 36 to 48 hours and this is the most likely scenario given the shortwave trough in place and the weakness in the ridge. also the farther west it continues to, move the more of a turn it would have to take, thus bringing it closer to new orleans.yet, as for the cat5 strength at landfall, i would go with doubtful on this. maybe a 2 or 3. if you look at 200mb winds at the supposed time of landfall, they are out of the west at 40-50 kts. so that along would tear it apart reducing it to a shadow of its former self. yet i am a bit skeptical on the amount of shear in place, whether it is truely 40-50 kts or if some may be storm relative between Ivan and the approaching trough upstream...or the ridge between. that is still to be seen. Now the far outlying scenario, which may be a bit far fetched is that Ivan could pull a Gilbert and ignore all the models. IF the storm continues on this westward movement for another 12 to 24 hours then we may have to consider this. For some reason (which i consider the influence of the mid-level high to its north) Ivan hasn't exactly been moving along the outer periphery of the subtropial ridge. It is slightly west of this point, if you look at the 500mb height or pressure contour of the ridge. So given this, if it moves far enough west that it doesnt begin to follow the weakness in the ridge then it could get caught in the approaching ridge to the west and get steered into southern TX, northern Mexico. Now again this is against the models and a little far fetched, but i've heard some talk of it over the past day or so. we'll have to see.

Huckster · #6912 Postby **Huckster** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:02 am

dennis1x1 wrote:not in eclipse tonight....goes 10 still sending pics.....same last night...

Well, we're still getting pics, and I guess it's better than nothing, but it leaves a lot to be desired, especially when you try to make a loop with it. I made a couple of loops from the NRL site, both color and b&w IR, and it is, to my tired eyes, essentially useless, other than proving the storm is still there. Too many jumps, wobbles, and distortions in the whole frames, ya know? Here's the link to the site anyway.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Website · #6913 Postby **FritzPaul** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:03 am

Actually the cone is an infinite number of circles with the "point" of the cone being a "very" small circle, and the rest of the circles getting larger.

WeatherNLU · #6914 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:03 am

Well I was right.........19.9N, 83.5W.

WeatherNLU · #6915 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:03 am

Huckster wrote:
dennis1x1 wrote:not in eclipse tonight....goes 10 still sending pics.....same last night...

Well, we're still getting pics, and I guess it's better than nothing, but it leaves a lot to be desired, especially when you try to make a loop with it. I made a couple of loops from the NRL site, both color and b&w IR, and it is, to my tired eyes, essentially useless, other than proving the storm is still there. Too many jumps, wobbles, and distortions in the whole frames, ya know? Here's the link to the site anyway.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Yeah I knew GOES-10 was still sending pics. I wasn't going to respond, it wasn't a big deal. You're right, I don't even bother.

addictedfisher18 · #6916 Postby **addictedfisher18** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:03 am

My dad also went through it and he said he would never leave his house if 1 like frederick came again, i dont wanna wish for this thing but it would be awesome to see 1

Lindaloo · #6917 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:05 am

mobilebay wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Local met here at 10 central said this looks like a Destin landfall.

thats because that is the exact spot the NHC has on their 11pm adv.

Do you mean to tell me she does not forecast on her own?? Where is Mike Reader when you need him. :lol:

j/k. I know she gets her info from the NHC and NWS.

Possum Trot · #6918 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:05 am

Greg wrote:The 2d profile of a cone is just a triangle.

I can't believe this thread continues. Yes a 2d profile of a cone is a triangle. My poorly articulated question was about the shape on the forecast map which appears to me to be a triangle with a semicircle attached to its shortest side. That shape has its own name I think. But I don't remember what it is.

SwampDawg · #6919 Postby **SwampDawg** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:06 am

How long does this usually last??

Ajarens · #6920 Postby **Ajarens** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:06 am

Throughout the whole day here in N. Central Florida, we had Thunderstorms flowing from E to W. Just checked our radar and the few thunderstorms still lingering did a complete turnround.. E to W to a W to NE flow. Wild!!

Ivan Advisories

another Mobilian

A diff track for ivan

Flow Is Changing

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