Ivan Advisories

Ivanova · #6941 Postby **Ivanova** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:39 am

Looks like Ivan is being fed from the Pacific :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

*

#6942 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:47 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

Notice the gap between the two highs...
That is the "shortwave trough" breaking down the ridge between the texan and bermuda high. Watch this pattern, if that trough digs deaper, or those highs weaken, we could see an accelerated turn northward. If that trough does not dig deep enough, or it backs out, and the ridge rebuilds... then there is no worry about this becoming a north gom event. It will be pushed west into mexico.
-Eric

#6943 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:49 am

Here is another... but different heights that shows it better....

-eric

k3839 · #6944 Postby **k3839** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:54 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Man, the models look bad!

Possum Trot · #6945 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:55 am

Ivanova wrote:Looks like Ivan is being fed from the Pacific*

I've been watching this too. Check out this thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44499

Ivanova · #6946 Postby **Ivanova** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:03 am

Possum Trot wrote:
Ivanova wrote:Looks like Ivan is being fed from the Pacific*

I've been watching this too. Check out this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44499

Possum... you remember our old friend, Forecaster Gomez ??

Here was his prediction [but alas, as you pointed out... his
original topic has been deleted

]

posted 9-8-04

"HURRICANE ALERT (HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 7-DAYS):
GULF COAST FROM GALVESTON, TEXAS TO KEY WEST, FLORIDA;
ATLANTIC COAST FROM KEY WEST, FLORIDA TO MELBOURNE, FLORIDA."

:eek:

WinterStormLover18 · #6947 Postby **WinterStormLover18** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:20 am

Question: How in the world can he be a Cat. 5 when he just did an EWRC, and is just now forming a rather ragged visible eye? He looks like a weak Cat. 4 to me. So, if he is this strong now, when his eye clears out and we can once again see the ocean through his eye, is he gonna be like Gilbert's strength?

Possum Trot · #6948 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:23 am

Ivanova - Ivan will probably be that big when he gets to the Gulf if he keeps this up. It makes me have to wonder about Mr. Gomez.

southtexasgal · #6949 Postby **southtexasgal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:28 am

Port Aransas,TX... i am just a lowly amatuer...but my husband and I have both agreed that so far none of the experts have been able to predict this monster. I do not by no means want to underestimate the pros at this but i have been watching on here for several days now and have not seen this turn north as of yet.... if someone with more knowledge can tell me what I'm not seeing then please do.

Possum Trot · #6950 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:29 am

WinterStormLover18 wrote:Question: How in the world can he be a Cat. 5 when he just did an EWRC, and is just now forming a rather ragged visible eye? He looks like a weak Cat. 4 to me. So, if he is this strong now, when his eye clears out and we can once again see the ocean through his eye, is he gonna be like Gilbert's strength?

I've been wondering the same thing. Does anyone know when we get another Recon Vortex. I'm wondering just how powerful he is at the moment.

Guest · #6951 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:30 am

Well as all will see here pretty much what i have expected has happend. My thinking still hasnt changed because i see no reason to. Which more or less those in MS, se LA, AL and the western FL Panhandle better start really paying attention to what this Major Hurricane is doing because she is destined for someone in the areas i mentioned. I am more ceoncerned now though (narrowing it down some) for those in MS, AL and western FL panhandle (towards AL line) and even as far west as extreme se LA. I will have a more detailed update later this evening!

Possum Trot · #6952 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:34 am

Some of the guys on that radio show said they expected Ivan to possibly rival the strength of the most powerful hurricanes ever after the next EWRC completed.

Possum Trot · #6953 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:39 am

Eric, how far south do you suppose the trough has go before it picks up the storm?

NorthGaWeather · #6954 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:44 am

The trough over the Gulf coast states will have little impact.

Possum Trot · #6955 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:45 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:The trough over the Gulf coast states will have little impact.

What will in your opinion impact Ivan?

#6956 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:46 am

Yeah but the gap in the ridge south of New Orleans is definitely not good. What's keeping Ivan from going right between those two ridges and right over New Orleans?

NorthGaWeather · #6957 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:46 am

Ivan is going to feel the weakness in between the two highs sometime and pull north some but when this occurs is anybodys guess right now.

Possum Trot · #6958 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:50 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:Ivan is going to feel the weakness in between the two highs sometime and pull north some but when this occurs is anybodys guess right now.

I'm new at this stuff so please bear with me. What will cause the weakness between the two highs?

NorthGaWeather · #6959 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:54 am

There is an upper level low over NRN MS and the weak trough over the Gulf Coast States will create this weakness.

logybogy · #6960 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:55 am

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html

The SHIPS model shows
close to 20 kt of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this
shear a bit at 24 and 36 hours before increasing it significantly.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening after 12
hours but Ivan could still be a formidable hurricane when it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Ivan Advisories

current synoptic bad for New Orleans...

On it's current track wouldn't landfall be around...

5AM Discussion: Ivan currently experiencing 20kt shear

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